ATL: DON - Remnant - Discussion

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Post Reply
Message
Author
User avatar
Meteorcane
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 559
Joined: Thu Jul 21, 2011 6:49 am
Location: North Platte Nebraska

#2181 Postby Meteorcane » Wed Jul 27, 2011 5:04 pm

Hey guys is Corpus in the clear?
0 likes   
Top
Snow Deprived365
Tropical Low
Tropical Low
Posts: 25
Joined: Thu Feb 03, 2011 9:24 pm
Location: NW Houston

#2182 Postby Snow Deprived365 » Wed Jul 27, 2011 5:05 pm

I couldnt remember from last year. Thanks!
0 likes   
Top
Florida1118

Re:

#2183 Postby Florida1118 » Wed Jul 27, 2011 5:06 pm

Meteorcane wrote:Hey guys is Corpus in the clear?

Not yet, No. Only when its very close to the coast will it be a for sure thing who is clear.

Snow Deprived365 wrote:I couldnt remember from last year. Thanks!

No problem! Were all here to help :D
Last edited by Florida1118 on Wed Jul 27, 2011 5:07 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
artist
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 9792
Joined: Mon Jun 06, 2005 3:26 pm
Location: West Palm

Re:

#2184 Postby artist » Wed Jul 27, 2011 5:07 pm

Meteorcane wrote:Hey guys is Corpus in the clear?

no, you need to keep your eye on it.
Image
0 likes   
Top
WeatherGuesser
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2672
Joined: Tue Jun 29, 2010 6:46 am

#2185 Postby WeatherGuesser » Wed Jul 27, 2011 5:07 pm

Image
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
HurricaneBrain
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 520
Joined: Thu Jun 30, 2011 2:07 pm

Re:

#2186 Postby HurricaneBrain » Wed Jul 27, 2011 5:07 pm

Meteorcane wrote:Hey guys is Corpus in the clear?

Corpus is high at risk according to the NHC track.
0 likes   
Top
Aric Dunn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 21238
Age: 42
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
Location: Ready for the Chase.
Contact:
Contact Aric Dunn

#2187 Postby Aric Dunn » Wed Jul 27, 2011 5:10 pm

Not sure I agree with the initial motion and speed. but otherwise conservative is the way to go right now. they did say however that the motion is uncertain....
0 likes   
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask :)

Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
Top
User avatar
HurricaneBrain
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 520
Joined: Thu Jun 30, 2011 2:07 pm

Re:

#2188 Postby HurricaneBrain » Wed Jul 27, 2011 5:11 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:Not sure I agree with the initial motion and speed. but otherwise conservative is the way to go right now. they did say however that the motion is uncertain....

Agreed, I think it is moving slower to the NW.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
ConvergenceZone
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5194
Joined: Fri Jul 29, 2005 1:40 am
Location: Northern California

Re: Re:

#2189 Postby ConvergenceZone » Wed Jul 27, 2011 5:16 pm

HurricaneBrain wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:Not sure I agree with the initial motion and speed. but otherwise conservative is the way to go right now. they did say however that the motion is uncertain....

Agreed, I think it is moving slower to the NW.


I'm waiting for the wobble wars to start :wink:
0 likes   
Top
SunnyThoughts
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2263
Joined: Wed Jul 09, 2003 12:42 pm
Location: Pensacola, Florida

Re: Re:

#2190 Postby SunnyThoughts » Wed Jul 27, 2011 5:19 pm

HurricaneBrain wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:Not sure I agree with the initial motion and speed. but otherwise conservative is the way to go right now. they did say however that the motion is uncertain....

Agreed, I think it is moving slower to the NW.



Looks NW to me too, but I hate to be a wobble watcher .
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
ROCK
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 9484
Age: 54
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2004 7:30 am
Location: Kemah, Texas

Re: ATL: DON - Recon Discussion

#2191 Postby ROCK » Wed Jul 27, 2011 5:20 pm

I think they are going to find a beefy TS by morning

I do not like this presentation and the potential at alll
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
KWT
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 31415
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2004 11:02 am
Location: UK!!!

Re: ATL: DON - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2192 Postby KWT » Wed Jul 27, 2011 5:23 pm

ConvergenceZone wrote:Man this is great news for Texas. Even the weather channel was saying this tropical storm is good news and you don't see that very often!


A TS would indeed be great, a RI 80-90kts hurricane probably wouldn't be so great, though the broader effects would still be positive outside of the high wind zone...
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
Top
User avatar
KWT
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 31415
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2004 11:02 am
Location: UK!!!

#2193 Postby KWT » Wed Jul 27, 2011 5:26 pm

Agreed, unless the presentation alters, I wouldn't be shocked to see a 50-55kts system by then.

Gonna get lots of recon in the next 48hrs!
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
Top
User avatar
WxEnthus
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 261
Joined: Thu Jun 09, 2011 9:33 am
Location: Eastern U.S.

Re: Re:

#2194 Postby WxEnthus » Wed Jul 27, 2011 5:29 pm

fci wrote:
BigB0882 wrote:Would anyone like to take bets on the first "is that an EYE?" comment?


Don't forget "wobble-watching".

Hmm, I think it just wobbled slightly to the east, it seems to be developing an eye (or two!) in that last frame, and it's looking rather annular...
There, I think that covered everything, right? I win! :cheesy:

[This post is not backed by sound meteorological data! Nor is it endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.]

Now back to regular programming... which brings me to a question -- what model run will initialize with the RECON data?
0 likes   
    Disclaimer: Posts herein are my amateur opinion only and should not be used for making important decisions. Defer to the NHC, NWS, and local authorities for official guidance.
Top
User avatar
ConvergenceZone
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5194
Joined: Fri Jul 29, 2005 1:40 am
Location: Northern California

Re: ATL: DON - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2195 Postby ConvergenceZone » Wed Jul 27, 2011 5:34 pm

KWT wrote:
ConvergenceZone wrote:Man this is great news for Texas. Even the weather channel was saying this tropical storm is good news and you don't see that very often!


A TS would indeed be great, a RI 80-90kts hurricane probably wouldn't be so great, though the broader effects would still be positive outside of the high wind zone...



Yea, I don't think they think the Weather Channel thinkgs it's going to make it to hurricane status. But you can never say never, so it's always best to at least include the possibility.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
mpic
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 622
Joined: Thu Oct 20, 2005 11:24 am
Location: Splendora, TX

Re: ATL: DON - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2196 Postby mpic » Wed Jul 27, 2011 5:35 pm

Local weather is saying that the dry air ahead of it probably won't even give us much rain in Houston. Does that have any merit?
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
ROCK
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 9484
Age: 54
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2004 7:30 am
Location: Kemah, Texas

Re: ATL: DON - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2197 Postby ROCK » Wed Jul 27, 2011 5:37 pm

Impact last discussion was a possible cat 1 or minimal cat 2 not out of the question...I tend to agree with current look...
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
TexWx
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 370
Joined: Tue Aug 22, 2006 11:00 pm
Location: Pearland, Texas
Contact:
Contact TexWx

Re: ATL: DON - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2198 Postby TexWx » Wed Jul 27, 2011 5:38 pm

I think that has merit...
Haven't kept up with it, but is that high still moving east?
0 likes   
Top
SunnyThoughts
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2263
Joined: Wed Jul 09, 2003 12:42 pm
Location: Pensacola, Florida

#2199 Postby SunnyThoughts » Wed Jul 27, 2011 5:39 pm

While everything is died down a bit. I've been cruising around other weatherboards just to see what other mets are thinking. There are quite a few who think this will indeed make hurricane status, and not just minimal cane status either. I'm seeing 85mph upwards to around 100 mph predicted. You guys in Texas, plan on a cane when making your preparations, its always better to be safe and prepare too much, than to be taken off guard and not prepare enough. Hopefully everyone will just get the rain they need with minimum amounts of the hazards that go along with tropical cyclones..i.e. downed trees and power outages.
0 likes   
Top
Air Force Met
Military Met
Military Met
Posts: 4372
Age: 56
Joined: Tue Jul 08, 2003 9:30 am
Location: Roan Mountain, TN

Re: ATL: DON - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2200 Postby Air Force Met » Wed Jul 27, 2011 5:39 pm

mpic wrote:Local weather is saying that the dry air ahead of it probably won't even give us much rain in Houston. Does that have any merit?


Who is "local weather?"
0 likes   
Top
Post Reply

Return to “2011”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 32 guests