ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[StormClouds63]

This one could be the next Dean (2007) ... or the next Earl (2004). Too early to tell, though it looks impressive size-wise.

[SouthDadeFish]

Looking at RGB imagery it seems inflow has gotten stronger as the day has progressed. This deserves a code red in my book. Only thing missing from being a tropical depression is convection over the center.

[KWT]

All we need is some decent convection and this is a TD. Im still sticking with late tomorrow for upgrade because it is moving into a much more favorable environment too support organized convection. the multiple vorts will not be a problem if enough convection build. IT will consolidate very quick.

Problem is the other vort is quite well defined as well, its got SW winds and I've seen these types of systems really struggle to take off...once they do they tend to explode in a big way but if it doesn't then the ECM probably would be a reasonable solution, IE weak, maybe eventually weak TS into the Windwards and through the Caribbean...My odds on the first option!

I have few doubts this does develop, its already too well organised for it to pull a ECM and weaken from here onwards...GFS IMO is a good solution for the track.

Should go to 50% IMO, code red not out of the question either...convection developing...mind you strong convection right over the eastern vort as well which probably isn't helping to create one main center...

PS, when I say take off, I mean with regards to getting past TD status...

[Sanibel]

Looks like a hurricane brewing to me.

[shaggy]

All we need is some decent convection and this is a TD. Im still sticking with late tomorrow for upgrade because it is moving into a much more favorable environment too support organized convection. the multiple vorts will not be a problem if enough convection build. IT will consolidate very quick.

Problem is the other vort is quite well defined as well, its got SW winds and I've seen these types of systems really struggle to take off...once they do they tend to explode in a big way but if it doesn't then the ECM probably would be a reasonable solution, IE weak, maybe eventually weak TS into the Windwards and through the Caribbean...My odds on the first option!

I have few doubts this does develop, its already too well organised for it to pull a ECM and weaken from here onwards...GFS IMO is a good solution for the track.

Should go to 50% IMO, code red not out of the question either...

PS, when I say take off, I mean with regards to getting past TD status...

Looking at the RGB loop it appears that the spin on the east side has slowly opened up over the last couple of hours. Doesn't seem nearly as pronounced as earlier and now the western spin which I guess is around 10N and 44W is looking better and firing convection?

[ConvergenceZone]

There are many differing opinions here but per wxman57's quote it does seem the most likely scenario will be a recurve because of the well-advertised trough that is forceast to deepen off the EC in the next 3-5 days...

True, 91L could remain weak and move westward, but looking at it this afternoon it does seem to be evolving at an average rate, so possible in 2 or 3 days it will be at TD status and begin to feel the weakness to it's north...

Frank

Which makes me wonder about the credibility of the weather folks(NHC?) that were saying
that this year systems should go more west and not recurve....

[KWT]

Looking at the RGB loop it appears that the spin on the east side has slowly opened up over the last couple of hours. Doesn't seem nearly as pronounced as earlier and now the western spin which I guess is around 10N and 44W is looking better and firing convection?

I actually think its gotten better, the eastern one is right under the convection at the moment, looks like thats forming an MLC as well.

Eastern one is between 38-40W, 8-10N...slap bang in the deep convection.

[HurricaneWarning92]

Agree. they were saying this year we will see more landfalls or at least it was expected, now apparently that trough is still there...

[SouthDadeFish]

I see the center near 9.5W 42.5W.

[shaggy]

Looking at the RGB loop it appears that the spin on the east side has slowly opened up over the last couple of hours. Doesn't seem nearly as pronounced as earlier and now the western spin which I guess is around 10N and 44W is looking better and firing convection?

I actually think its gotten better, the eastern one is right under the convection at the moment, looks like thats forming an MLC as well.

Eastern one is between 38-40W, 8-10N...slap bang in the deep convection.

I was looking at the naked swirl that was just east of western circ and that is the one that has faded away and opened up. I see the one you are speaking of and it is looking ok for now. The question is what happens if these 2 systems get enough seperation between them? The western one is really moving while the one you note is moving more NNW and a little slower.

P.S the NHC listed the little naked swirl that I think is opening up as the primary 1008 low at 9n 41w.

[KWT]

Remember people, one system that hasn't formed yet doesn't mean its a recurve season, that would be massivly foolish to think that at this stage.

Remember even in busy landfalling seasons, most will still recurve, its pretty rare to get a year like 2004 or even like 2008 where most hit.

[StormClouds63]

This system has the potential to be much more than just a "rain-maker." It will be a blessing if it does do the re-curve, especially if it avoids the islands.

[KWT]

That would be the question...ECM is the only one I can see that takes that route...the western vort still develops, but takes quite alot longer to get going. That's my best guess as to what would happen as well.

Its a classic monsoonal system, never satisified with just one center

Ps, that being said, I actually DO agree with Aric that there is a fair chance this forms some point tomorrow, too much going for it...

[ConvergenceZone]

Remember people, one system that hasn't formed yet doesn't mean its a recurve season, that would be massivly foolish to think that at this stage.

Remember even in busy landfalling seasons, most will still recurve, its pretty rare to get a year like 2004 or even like 2008 where most hit.

KWT We are reacting to the anticipated troughiness more than anything else....
as opposed to a persistent blocking high....

I'm mainly blaming the media more than anything else.

[gatorcane]

TAFB:

[SouthDadeFish]

No possible tropical cyclone listed there. Interesting.

[Macrocane]

Are we really sure that there's a well defined LLC? I have been looking at visible imagery and I see a couple of vortices that may be eddies, vort max or something but not a LLC yet, of course I'm not a pro so I could be wrong. The mid level rotation is good anyway.

[HurricaneWarning92]

Remember people, one system that hasn't formed yet doesn't mean its a recurve season, that would be massivly foolish to think that at this stage.

Remember even in busy landfalling seasons, most will still recurve, its pretty rare to get a year like 2004 or even like 2008 where most hit.

KWT We are reacting to the anticipated troughiness more than anything else....

i understand that not every single storm will make landfall somewhere in the U.S. In fact, i expect quite a few will recurve, but i also think quite a few will pose some threat. Im not saying that i wish some catastrophic event to occur, like we saw in 2005 but i will admit i like the "thrill" when a hurricane is coming my way, as im sure many of us here think that way, but of course that along with nervousness. The word "recurve" irritates me because we've heard that a lot these past 2 years, and id like a bit of a change so its more "interesting", thus thrilling. i mean how many of you think that way? im pretty sure im not the only one...

[Evil Jeremy]

:uarrow: No possible tropical cyclone listed there. Interesting.

Also it dropped the Low.

EDIT: My bad, thought that was present conditions, not 72 hours out.

[cycloneye]

The 18z surface analysis.



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