TS winds show in quikscat - VOTE WHEN IT WILL BE A TD OR TS?

chadtm80 · #1 Postby **chadtm80** » Tue Aug 26, 2003 9:22 am

Click Link... Very Impressive http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/archdat/trop ... N-205W.jpg

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/03_ ... thumb.html

Guest · #2 Postby **Guest** » Tue Aug 26, 2003 9:39 am

Wow looks like I will be eating barbequed crow for supper tonight. This system is wrapping up nicely this morning.

Okay now time to vote on when it will be called a TD or TS?

Patricia

#3 Postby **alicia-w** » Tue Aug 26, 2003 9:45 am

i'll sit back and watch for a couple of days and defer to the 'experts' on the short term specifics..........

Guest · #4 Postby **Guest** » Tue Aug 26, 2003 9:52 am

I say TD by 8:00 a.m. Wednesday morning.

chadtm80 · #5 Postby **chadtm80** » Tue Aug 26, 2003 9:52 am

At least convection is near the center today.. Click link and do a medium zoom animation on the storm

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/metsat7ir.html

Colin · #6 Postby **Colin** » Tue Aug 26, 2003 9:54 am

I say a TD by 12 PM Wednesday.

Steve H. · #7 Postby **Steve H.** » Tue Aug 26, 2003 10:05 am

Due to its structure, I'm going to say 11 pm tonight. Think NHC is tired of saying in a couple of days, and they've been billing this as a "best wave" :wink:

chadtm80 · #8 Postby **chadtm80** » Tue Aug 26, 2003 10:08 am

nice shot on nrl here, you can see convection on the build near center...

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn/t ... N-210W.jpg

#9 Postby **vbhoutex** » Tue Aug 26, 2003 10:22 am

Steve H. wrote:Due to its structure, I'm going to say 11 pm tonight. Think NHC is tired of saying in a couple of days, and they've been billing this as a "best wave"

Pretty much my thoughts too Steve. It needs to wrap the convection around the center, and a delay till tomorrow morning would not surprise me since it is still near the CV Islands, but I am going with an 11pm call for now with a caveat that I can change my mind if I am wrong. :roll:

JetMaxx · #10 Postby **JetMaxx** » Tue Aug 26, 2003 12:08 pm

I vote a TD by 7 a.m. tomorrow, and a TS by Wednesday evening...

southerngale · #11 Postby **southerngale** » Tue Aug 26, 2003 12:23 pm

It's looking pretty good. Is it going to hit MS.???

chadtm80 · #12 Postby **chadtm80** » Tue Aug 26, 2003 12:27 pm

Convection still concentrating and building around center

Stormchaser16 · #13 Postby **Stormchaser16** » Tue Aug 26, 2003 12:33 pm

I'll go ahead and say TD by sometime tommorow afternoon, strongest winds are on the southern side(entrained in most of the deep convection, i'll wait for that to get into the center).... strongest winds around center appear to be 25-30 knots on southern side and 20-25 knots on the northern side, getting very clost to TD classification. If it continues to develop then it will most likely stear out to sea, if it stays weak then the flow is W-WNW and it could be a player for the east coast in the coming days.

MY bet is out to sea-only because it seems to be developing nicely.

JCT777 · #14 Postby **JCT777** » Tue Aug 26, 2003 1:26 pm

TD by 2 PM EDT tomorrow and a TS within 24 hours after that.

Tip · #15 Postby **Tip** » Tue Aug 26, 2003 1:30 pm

5:30 AM TS

#16 Postby **alicia-w** » Tue Aug 26, 2003 2:07 pm

the Dvorak is now at 1.5 so I'm gonna say 5pm today, 11 pm at the latest

#17 Postby **wxman57** » Tue Aug 26, 2003 2:57 pm

Well, according to a number of ship observations around this system, it's already a TD. The question is, then, how long will the NHC wait to upgrade it? Convection does seem to be increasing, and there is obvious banding now. They well may upgrade it within the hour. Or, they may sit on it ovenight to see if it can maintain the convection.

chadtm80 · #18 Postby **chadtm80** » Tue Aug 26, 2003 2:59 pm

Exactly wxman.. It all depends on the NHC mood lol... Like you said TD now, but will they wait till tommorow, to make sure they dont upgreade a system and then it fizzle out 12 hours later again... I said upgrade it.. If it walks like a duck, then call it a duck.. :-)

Rainband · #19 Postby **Rainband** » Tue Aug 26, 2003 3:34 pm

5pm... 11pm at the latest :wink:

But we all know how right I have been!!! :o :lol:

ameriwx2003 · #20 Postby **ameriwx2003** » Tue Aug 26, 2003 3:40 pm

It will be a named a TD at the Wed 5 A.M. advisory:)

TS winds show in quikscat - VOTE WHEN IT WILL BE A TD OR TS?

TS winds show in quikscat - VOTE WHEN IT WILL BE A TD OR TS?

TD?

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