TS winds show in quikscat - VOTE WHEN IT WILL BE A TD OR TS?

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chadtm80

TS winds show in quikscat - VOTE WHEN IT WILL BE A TD OR TS?

#1 Postby chadtm80 » Tue Aug 26, 2003 9:22 am

Last edited by chadtm80 on Tue Aug 26, 2003 10:52 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#2 Postby Guest » Tue Aug 26, 2003 9:39 am

Wow looks like I will be eating barbequed crow for supper tonight. This system is wrapping up nicely this morning.

Okay now time to vote on when it will be called a TD or TS?


Patricia
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alicia-w
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#3 Postby alicia-w » Tue Aug 26, 2003 9:45 am

i'll sit back and watch for a couple of days and defer to the 'experts' on the short term specifics..........
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Guest

#4 Postby Guest » Tue Aug 26, 2003 9:52 am

I say TD by 8:00 a.m. Wednesday morning.
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chadtm80

#5 Postby chadtm80 » Tue Aug 26, 2003 9:52 am

At least convection is near the center today.. Click link and do a medium zoom animation on the storm

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/metsat7ir.html
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#6 Postby Colin » Tue Aug 26, 2003 9:54 am

I say a TD by 12 PM Wednesday.
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#7 Postby Steve H. » Tue Aug 26, 2003 10:05 am

Due to its structure, I'm going to say 11 pm tonight. Think NHC is tired of saying in a couple of days, and they've been billing this as a "best wave" :wink:
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chadtm80

#8 Postby chadtm80 » Tue Aug 26, 2003 10:08 am

nice shot on nrl here, you can see convection on the build near center...


http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn/t ... N-210W.jpg
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#9 Postby vbhoutex » Tue Aug 26, 2003 10:22 am

Steve H. wrote:Due to its structure, I'm going to say 11 pm tonight. Think NHC is tired of saying in a couple of days, and they've been billing this as a "best wave" :wink:


Pretty much my thoughts too Steve. It needs to wrap the convection around the center, and a delay till tomorrow morning would not surprise me since it is still near the CV Islands, but I am going with an 11pm call for now with a caveat that I can change my mind if I am wrong. :roll: :wink:
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#10 Postby JetMaxx » Tue Aug 26, 2003 12:08 pm

I vote a TD by 7 a.m. tomorrow, and a TS by Wednesday evening...
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#11 Postby southerngale » Tue Aug 26, 2003 12:23 pm

It's looking pretty good. Is it going to hit MS.???
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chadtm80

#12 Postby chadtm80 » Tue Aug 26, 2003 12:27 pm

Convection still concentrating and building around center


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#13 Postby Stormchaser16 » Tue Aug 26, 2003 12:33 pm

I'll go ahead and say TD by sometime tommorow afternoon, strongest winds are on the southern side(entrained in most of the deep convection, i'll wait for that to get into the center).... strongest winds around center appear to be 25-30 knots on southern side and 20-25 knots on the northern side, getting very clost to TD classification. If it continues to develop then it will most likely stear out to sea, if it stays weak then the flow is W-WNW and it could be a player for the east coast in the coming days.

MY bet is out to sea-only because it seems to be developing nicely.
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#14 Postby JCT777 » Tue Aug 26, 2003 1:26 pm

TD by 2 PM EDT tomorrow and a TS within 24 hours after that.
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#15 Postby Tip » Tue Aug 26, 2003 1:30 pm

5:30 AM TS
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#16 Postby alicia-w » Tue Aug 26, 2003 2:07 pm

the Dvorak is now at 1.5 so I'm gonna say 5pm today, 11 pm at the latest
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TD?

#17 Postby wxman57 » Tue Aug 26, 2003 2:57 pm

Well, according to a number of ship observations around this system, it's already a TD. The question is, then, how long will the NHC wait to upgrade it? Convection does seem to be increasing, and there is obvious banding now. They well may upgrade it within the hour. Or, they may sit on it ovenight to see if it can maintain the convection.
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chadtm80

#18 Postby chadtm80 » Tue Aug 26, 2003 2:59 pm

Exactly wxman.. It all depends on the NHC mood lol... Like you said TD now, but will they wait till tommorow, to make sure they dont upgreade a system and then it fizzle out 12 hours later again... I said upgrade it.. If it walks like a duck, then call it a duck.. :-)
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Rainband

#19 Postby Rainband » Tue Aug 26, 2003 3:34 pm

5pm... 11pm at the latest :wink: But we all know how right I have been!!! :o :lol: :lol:
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#20 Postby ameriwx2003 » Tue Aug 26, 2003 3:40 pm

It will be a named a TD at the Wed 5 A.M. advisory:)
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