ATL: EMILY - Remnants

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ROCK
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#2961 Postby ROCK » Mon Aug 01, 2011 1:14 pm

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLP072.gif

72 hr still trekking under Hispa....
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#2962 Postby ROCK » Mon Aug 01, 2011 1:14 pm

Ivanhater wrote:Much stronger than previous run ROCK


yep....
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#2963 Postby madinina » Mon Aug 01, 2011 1:14 pm

Hi,
First, sorry for my bad english...
So, this system will not cross Martinique?
I hope so, because here, nobody is ready...
We are working normally...
Thanks you for yours analyses since yesterday.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#2964 Postby jlauderdal » Mon Aug 01, 2011 1:14 pm

cycloneye wrote:TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT MON AUG 1 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTEND FROM THE LESSER ANTILLES EASTWARD
FOR A FEW HUNDRED MILES IN ASSOCIATION WITH A VIGOROUS TROPICAL
WAVE. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY
INVESTIGATING THE DISTURBANCE...ALTHOUGH SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES THIS SYSTEM HAS NOT BECOME ANY BETTER ORGANIZED SINCE
THIS MORNING. THE WAVE IS PRODUCING WINDS TO NEAR TROPICAL STORM
FORCE...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR A TROPICAL STORM TO FORM LATER TONIGHT OR
TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. IF THE SYSTEM BECOMES A
TROPICAL CYCLONE TONIGHT OR TOMORROW...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS
WOULD BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS AND
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ON VERY SHORT NOTICE. INTERESTS IN THESE AREAS
SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS DISTURBANCE. REGARDLESS
OF DEVELOPMENT...THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
STRONG GUSTY WINDS TO PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART





clock reset-100% out the window, going with 80% until 2 pm weds
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#2965 Postby Ivanhater » Mon Aug 01, 2011 1:15 pm

ROCK wrote:http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/euro/12zeurotropical850mbVortSLP072.gif

72 hr still trekking under Hispa....


Eh..circulation disrupted by Haiti
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#2966 Postby caneseddy » Mon Aug 01, 2011 1:15 pm

ROCK wrote:http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/euro/12zeurotropical850mbVortSLP072.gif

72 hr still trekking under Hispa....


Looks like it is headed for the Windward Passage between Eastern Cuba and Haiti
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#2967 Postby capepoint » Mon Aug 01, 2011 1:16 pm

Time
EDT (UTC) Temperature
F (C) Dew Point
F (C) Pressure
Inches (hPa) Wind
MPH Weather
Latest 2 PM (18) Aug 01 86 (30) 75 (24) 29.80 (1009) W 3 rain showers
1 PM (17) Aug 01 89 (32) 77 (25) 29.80 (1009) NE 3
Noon (16) Aug 01 84 (29) 75 (24) 29.83 (1010) NNW 10 light rain showers
11 AM (15) Aug 01 86 (30) 73 (23) 29.83 (1010) NW 12
10 AM (14) Aug 01 86 (30) 73 (23) 29.85 (1011) NNW 8
9 AM (13) Aug 01 86 (30) 75 (24) 29.85 (1011) NNW 8
8 AM (12) Aug 01 84 (29) 73 (23) 29.85 (1011) NW 3
7 AM (11) Aug 01 78 (26) 71 (22) 29.83 (1010) SSE 6
6 AM (10) Aug 01 78 (26) 73 (23) 29.83 (1010) S 3


if this is right, there has been somewhat of a westerly component for the last 6 hours.
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#2968 Postby KWT » Mon Aug 01, 2011 1:16 pm

System is disrputed by Hispaniola at 72hrs and so weakens, but the track looks further south and maybe also a threat to Cuba/Florida again.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#2969 Postby ROCK » Mon Aug 01, 2011 1:16 pm

Ivanhater wrote:
ROCK wrote:http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/euro/12zeurotropical850mbVortSLP072.gif

72 hr still trekking under Hispa....


Eh..circulation disrupted by Haiti



hard to tell but to me it looks like the core is still wet...to the south....maybe your right....
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#2970 Postby Gustywind » Mon Aug 01, 2011 1:16 pm

Latest from SSD...
DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
01/1145 UTC 14.6N 56.7W T2.0/2.0 91L
01/0545 UTC 14.4N 55.6W T2.0/2.0 91L
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Re:

#2971 Postby Blown Away » Mon Aug 01, 2011 1:17 pm

Hylian Auree wrote:This multi-vortice beast has led us into believing it was in the process of developing many times before. Wouldn't surprise me if it falls apart again soon ):


Got to remember many of us have Storm2k OCD, and even slight improvements in development get many of us very excited, but we realize it's still just a unorganized mess.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#2972 Postby JPmia » Mon Aug 01, 2011 1:17 pm

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLP072.gif

if it wasn't for Hispainola South FL would be one dangerous place to live.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#2973 Postby Frank2 » Mon Aug 01, 2011 1:17 pm

That could be the normal for them at that reporting station (perhaps a hill nearby, etc.) - a very weak wind like that really doesn't mean much...

Frank
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#2974 Postby Frank2 » Mon Aug 01, 2011 1:18 pm

Latest 2 PM (18) Aug 01 86 (30) 75 (24) 29.80 (1009) W 3 rain showers
1 PM (17) Aug 01 89 (32) 77 (25) 29.80 (1009) NE 3
Noon (16) Aug 01 84 (29) 75 (24) 29.83 (1010) NNW 10 light rain showers
11 AM (15) Aug 01 86 (30) 73 (23) 29.83 (1010) NW 12
10 AM (14) Aug 01 86 (30) 73 (23) 29.85 (1011) NNW 8
9 AM (13) Aug 01 86 (30) 75 (24) 29.85 (1011) NNW 8
8 AM (12) Aug 01 84 (29) 73 (23) 29.85 (1011) NW 3
7 AM (11) Aug 01 78 (26) 71 (22) 29.83 (1010) SSE 6
6 AM (10) Aug 01 78 (26) 73 (23) 29.83 (1010) S 3


Actually in the weather business that's called "light and variable" - I wouldn't get in a cyclonic spin over it (lol)...


Frank
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#2975 Postby KWT » Mon Aug 01, 2011 1:19 pm

Interesting west wind report, I doubt its enough on its own for an upgrade but if the NHC are looking at it it may well force them to shift thier focus to the area further west when it comes to developmental area.
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#2976 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Aug 01, 2011 1:19 pm

we will see.. the latest visible clearly shows a well defined LLC.. the surface winds probably still need to come up some but with the convection developing it wont take long now.. the circ is quickly becoming more defined.
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Re:

#2977 Postby caneseddy » Mon Aug 01, 2011 1:19 pm

KWT wrote:System is disrputed by Hispaniola at 72hrs and so weakens, but the track looks further south and maybe also a threat to Cuba/Florida again.


Everytime I look at this possible storm path based on the models, I keep thinking Cleo from 1964 where her disruption with Haiti caused her to drop to Category 1 when she entered Cuba, and then exited as a tropical storm and made landfall here in Miami as a Cat 2..I'm always wary of that little gap north of the islands between Bahamas and Florida
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#2978 Postby ROCK » Mon Aug 01, 2011 1:19 pm

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Re: Re:

#2979 Postby Hylian Auree » Mon Aug 01, 2011 1:20 pm

Blown Away wrote:
Hylian Auree wrote:This multi-vortice beast has led us into believing it was in the process of developing many times before. Wouldn't surprise me if it falls apart again soon ):


Got to remember many of us have Storm2k OCD, and even slight improvements in development get many of us very excited, but we realize it's still just a unorganized mess.

I agree. This system is toying with our minds. It got me excited enough to pull an allnighter; it certainly has been an interesting track
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#2980 Postby SouthDadeFish » Mon Aug 01, 2011 1:20 pm

Definitely looks like and LLC just east of Dominica to me....

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-rgb.html
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