ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[cycloneye]

9:34 and no discussion since?

Is this what they mean that once it is named, everyone forgets it? The fun is gone?

What do you mean? I posted for you the radar that shows a band approaching your location and the members are discussing about it.

[SunnyThoughts]

wow curious to see where it ends up this run.

[stormreader]

I tell you the persistent model support for ridging north of the storm and the strong W motion now make me feel more confident that the forecast track will remain at the western side of the envelope and eventually will have to be nudged into the E GOM. Considering where models have been recently (well east of Fl--some still there) I give the NHC quite a bit of credit for placing their track along that western side of the envelope. I think its not far off from the eventual track, and if anything will only have to be nudged west a little and not east.
Just an amateur opinion here.

[Aric Dunn]

00Z NAM looks really far south..remember Ivan and others...kept on going west against the models and the models had to play catch up almost the entire time....I know we all try to nail these systems down as soon as we can, but this is certainly not clear cut as most logical people will tell you.

[img]http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/nam/00/images/nam_sl8_030m.gif[/img

Yeah the fact that presently the ridging is holding and seems slightly stronger than earlier in the day gives more credence to the more west models..

[TheDreamTraveler]

Is it weird to see the most intense area of convection transfer from the west to the east side so quickly? Almost like it was going around in a loop.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/flash-avn.html

[knotimpaired]

9:34 and no discussion since?

Is this what they mean that once it is named, everyone forgets it? The fun is gone?

Refresh. F5 isn't just a code for an extreme tornado.

You are far ahead of me to suggest to refresh. I have no clue what you are referring to.

I do know this though.

1. I believe in Cycloneye

2. I believe in Aric

3. I believe in MJ, PRCarib

That is who I will listen to.

[Florida1118]

9:34 and no discussion since?

Is this what they mean that once it is named, everyone forgets it? The fun is gone?

What do you mean? I posted for you the radar that shows a band approaching your location and the members are discussing about it.

Also it could be people just want to take a break from her now that she's named. Its been like pulling teeth waiting for the upgrade, and its here now so we can all sit back and watch

[Rgv20]

Well assuming Emily follows the NHC Cone that is one unusually strong through that she is going to encounter.

12zECMWF Ensembles forecast for 96hrs


12zGFS Ensembles forecast for 96hrs



Also the 6zGFS Ensembles show enough ridging that it could be a possible threat to Florida. The gold lines show that some of the Ensemble members forecast a ridge to take over just to the east of Florida.

[Aric Dunn]

Other thing is .. the current motion of emily has WSW component so the NAM with the stronger ridge may be not too far of..

[cheezyWXguy]

9:34 and no discussion since?

Is this what they mean that once it is named, everyone forgets it? The fun is gone?

Refresh. F5 isn't just a code for an extreme tornado.

You are far ahead of me to suggest to refresh. I have no clue what you are referring to.

I do know this though.

1. I believe in Cycloneye

2. I believe in Aric

3. I believe in MJ, PRCarib

That is who I will listen to.

Hes saying to refresh the page. Press F5 periodically to update the page and see the latest posts.

[LSU2001]

knotimpaired,
He simply means to reload your page. If you hit the f5 key on your keyboard it will reload the page and show any new posts since the last time you loaded the page.
Hope this helps,
Tim

[Aric Dunn]

42 hours the Gap is closing ...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_042m.gif

[Nimbus]

Looking at the water vapor imagery there is an ULL rolling west over the Yucatan and Emily is embedded in the subtropical ridge currently pushing west past Jamaica. I see a trough dropping down now just south of the Georgia Florida border but it would really have to dig for Emily to feel its effects way down at 16 N. I saw Emily passing over the high mountains of Haiti 48 hours ago but now with the the current ridging and 00Z Nam it looks like I might be out.

[knotimpaired]

9:34 and no discussion since?

Is this what they mean that once it is named, everyone forgets it? The fun is gone?

What do you mean? I posted for you the radar that shows a band approaching your location and the members are discussing about it.

Also it could be people just want to take a break from her now that she's named. Its been like pulling teeth waiting for the upgrade, and its here now so we can all sit back and watch

Luis Sorry. Let me take a look at our long range forecast.

Lee's 2 daughters and grandchildren have proven to be a handful.

[Evil Jeremy]

Looking forward to the new Discussion. I wonder how the NHC will handle the new model run.

[Clint_TX]

Large circ on this system...starting to be impressed, its establishing at the lower levels nicely

[DIwestender]

Actually, I never knew you could hit F5 and it would refresh the page. Thanks for that tip! As for Emily, I am watching with great interest and I appreciate all the input.

[Blown Away]

NHC's path looks too far west given current model suite. They will definitely have to adjust their track some at 10pm.

I agree only the CMC and UKMET are into Florida. I am not counting the NOGAPS.

The other reliable models are converging over the Bahamas. A right shift should be coming.

Those BAMs are really recurving it now. Though not really counting those.

IMO, some models begin the recurve, slow significantly, and some stall, Emily gets trapped under a building ridge and forced back W (TVCN, BAMD, NOGAPS). Maybe a Jeanne type setup??

[cycloneye]

knotimpaired,if you have observations from Vieques,post them at the Caribbean thread as I know you have a weather station.

[Aric Dunn]

funny last night the NAM showed stronger ridging and the 00z then 12z globals all showed it shift their tracks west a bunch.. each run the models seem to initialize the ridge being to weak except a couple...