ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[Aric Dunn]

Here are the early 06z cycle models, all expecting Emily to move WNW or NW. Recon tells a different tale:

was in the middle of doing that.. thank you

yeah clearly still west..

UKMET seem to the only model consistently more west and seem the most reasonable right now

[Evil Jeremy]

Very nice graphic EJ - when was that last center fix?

I want to say around 5am. Right before my 45 minute powernap lol. New center fix should be in with next recon observation set.

[Aric Dunn]

That and she has pretty much been moving due west all night.. couple wobbles here and there

Yep, certainly not heading 285 at then moment...

Looks to me like motion has been about 275-280 between the last two fixes...still quite westerly though.

well if you look at those last 3 fixes.. its slightly south of west.. lol

[Evil Jeremy]

Theres the jog north.

Where is what jog?

If watches go up for 48 hours out, when should South Florida go into Watch mode? -pretty soon I would suspect. Especially if this were to go over lowland Hispanola, and not weaken significantly, it could rapidly get its act together and end up on the doorstep quickly as a not so weak storm (or low CAT1...if not CAT2 if RI occurs.

Probably tomorrow morning. We are on the edge of the three day cone right now.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

some are saying its going south of west whie others are saying jog more north? haha, here comes the wobble watching fun!

[Aric Dunn]

Models will no choice but to shift more west at the 12z.. being that emily is still moving west.. and last couple hours slightly south of due west.. from recon

[RL3AO]

Theres the jog north.

Where is what jog?

Well not as much as I thought. Measured from the wrong spot while waiting for GE to update. Moved about 285 between VDMs.

Still well south of the models.

[NDG]

So what should we do with the models this morning, I think we should throw them all out until Thursday when she gets north of the Antilles, if she gets there, with her LLC continuing heading west, her MLC WSW...I just don't know what to think this morning. lol

She's already past the Antillies...she's just southeast of Hispaniola. And just as I suspected, they never shifted the track.

Well Kory, what should I say other than give you compliments, lol. I hope your forecast verifies at the end.
You know I meant to say the Greater Antilles.

[KWT]

System gone to about 300 degrees between the last two vortex messages...

Looks like Emily is stair-stepping towards Hispaniola at the moment...

[Evil Jeremy]

New possible center fix at 16.45N 68.9W.

[Aric Dunn]

Theres the jog north.

Where is what jog?

Well not as much as I thought. Measured from the wrong spot while waiting for GE to update. Moved about 285 between VDMs.

Still well south of the models.

285 ?? hardly.. if anything that would be considered 260 for the last 3 fixes

[RL3AO]

285 ?? hardly.. if anything that would be considered 260 for the last 3 fixes

I'm talking about the 4th fix.

[NDG]

Hey guys, tracking her last 3 fixes by the recon, Emily has moved on a 270 deg heading.
Recon is getting ready to fix her center again, with no change in heading.

[Aric Dunn]

285 ?? hardly.. if anything that would be considered 260 for the last 3 fixes

I'm talking about the 4th fix.

well ok then..

[KWT]

Theres the jog north.

Where is what jog?

Well not as much as I thought. Measured from the wrong spot while waiting for GE to update. Moved about 285 between VDMs.

Still well south of the models.

Actually your right, just got the graphic through and its pretty much exactly 285 this time round.

Dropsonde just south of the center.

295 now needed to hit S.hispaniola...

[Kory]

Looks like Emily is experiencing a little southwesterly shear.

[KWT]

285 ?? hardly.. if anything that would be considered 260 for the last 3 fixes

Fron the 1st fix to the last fix its been on pretty much a 275 heading...well south of the models.

[ronjon]

UKMET seem to the only model consistently more west and seem the most reasonable right now

Actually 00z CMC seems to be nailing the track at the moment.

[Evil Jeremy]

My updated graphic. I created a white circle and placed it over the west wind observation. It's an unofficial circle lol.

[jlauderdal]

That and she has pretty much been moving due west all night.. couple wobbles here and there

Yep, certainly not heading 285 at then moment...

Looks to me like motion has been about 275-280 between the last two fixes...still quite westerly though.

well if you look at those last 3 fixes.. its slightly south of west.. lol

that ridge is really pressing down on the system, same thing happened with ike a few years ago, they need a g4 mission asap to figure out the ridge situation because so far they dont seem to have a handle on it