ATL: EMILY - Remnants

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
Aric Dunn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 21238
Age: 42
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
Location: Ready for the Chase.
Contact:

Re: ATL: EMILY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#5661 Postby Aric Dunn » Wed Aug 03, 2011 6:12 am

Evil Jeremy wrote:Here are the early 06z cycle models, all expecting Emily to move WNW or NW. Recon tells a different tale:

Image


was in the middle of doing that.. thank you :)

yeah clearly still west..

UKMET seem to the only model consistently more west and seem the most reasonable right now
0 likes   
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask :)

Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...

User avatar
Evil Jeremy
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5463
Age: 32
Joined: Mon Apr 10, 2006 2:10 pm
Location: Los Angeles, CA

Re: ATL: EMILY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#5662 Postby Evil Jeremy » Wed Aug 03, 2011 6:13 am

ronjon wrote:Very nice graphic EJ - when was that last center fix?


I want to say around 5am. Right before my 45 minute powernap lol. New center fix should be in with next recon observation set.
0 likes   
Frances 04 / Jeanne 04 / Katrina 05 / Wilma 05 / Fay 08 / Debby 12 / Andrea 13 / Colin 16 / Hermine 16 / Matthew 16 / Irma 17

Aric Dunn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 21238
Age: 42
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
Location: Ready for the Chase.
Contact:

Re: Re:

#5663 Postby Aric Dunn » Wed Aug 03, 2011 6:13 am

KWT wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:That and she has pretty much been moving due west all night.. couple wobbles here and there


Yep, certainly not heading 285 at then moment...

Looks to me like motion has been about 275-280 between the last two fixes...still quite westerly though.


well if you look at those last 3 fixes.. its slightly south of west.. lol
0 likes   
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask :)

Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...

User avatar
Evil Jeremy
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5463
Age: 32
Joined: Mon Apr 10, 2006 2:10 pm
Location: Los Angeles, CA

Re:

#5664 Postby Evil Jeremy » Wed Aug 03, 2011 6:14 am

RL3AO wrote:Theres the jog north.


Where is what jog?

If watches go up for 48 hours out, when should South Florida go into Watch mode? -pretty soon I would suspect. Especially if this were to go over lowland Hispanola, and not weaken significantly, it could rapidly get its act together and end up on the doorstep quickly as a not so weak storm (or low CAT1...if not CAT2 if RI occurs.

Probably tomorrow morning. We are on the edge of the three day cone right now.
Last edited by Evil Jeremy on Wed Aug 03, 2011 6:15 am, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   
Frances 04 / Jeanne 04 / Katrina 05 / Wilma 05 / Fay 08 / Debby 12 / Andrea 13 / Colin 16 / Hermine 16 / Matthew 16 / Irma 17

User avatar
TreasureIslandFLGal
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1581
Age: 57
Joined: Sun Aug 15, 2004 6:16 pm
Location: Clearwater, Florida ~3 miles from the coast now. We finally moved safely off the barrier island!

#5665 Postby TreasureIslandFLGal » Wed Aug 03, 2011 6:14 am

some are saying its going south of west whie others are saying jog more north? haha, here comes the wobble watching fun!
0 likes   
Chrissy & Ligeia
:flag:

Aric Dunn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 21238
Age: 42
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
Location: Ready for the Chase.
Contact:

#5666 Postby Aric Dunn » Wed Aug 03, 2011 6:14 am

Models will no choice but to shift more west at the 12z.. being that emily is still moving west.. and last couple hours slightly south of due west.. from recon
0 likes   
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask :)

Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...

RL3AO
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 16308
Joined: Thu Jun 14, 2007 10:03 pm
Location: NC

Re: Re:

#5667 Postby RL3AO » Wed Aug 03, 2011 6:15 am

Evil Jeremy wrote:
RL3AO wrote:Theres the jog north.


Where is what jog?


Well not as much as I thought. Measured from the wrong spot while waiting for GE to update. Moved about 285 between VDMs.

Still well south of the models.
0 likes   

User avatar
NDG
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 15456
Joined: Sun Jul 09, 2006 10:14 pm
Location: Orlando, FL

Re: Re:

#5668 Postby NDG » Wed Aug 03, 2011 6:15 am

Kory wrote:
NDG wrote:So what should we do with the models this morning, I think we should throw them all out until Thursday when she gets north of the Antilles, if she gets there, with her LLC continuing heading west, her MLC WSW...I just don't know what to think this morning. lol

She's already past the Antillies...she's just southeast of Hispaniola. And just as I suspected, they never shifted the track.


Well Kory, what should I say other than give you compliments, lol. I hope your forecast verifies at the end.
You know I meant to say the Greater Antilles.
0 likes   

User avatar
KWT
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 31415
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2004 11:02 am
Location: UK!!!

#5669 Postby KWT » Wed Aug 03, 2011 6:15 am

System gone to about 300 degrees between the last two vortex messages...

Looks like Emily is stair-stepping towards Hispaniola at the moment...
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

User avatar
Evil Jeremy
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5463
Age: 32
Joined: Mon Apr 10, 2006 2:10 pm
Location: Los Angeles, CA

Re: ATL: EMILY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#5670 Postby Evil Jeremy » Wed Aug 03, 2011 6:16 am

New possible center fix at 16.45N 68.9W.
0 likes   
Frances 04 / Jeanne 04 / Katrina 05 / Wilma 05 / Fay 08 / Debby 12 / Andrea 13 / Colin 16 / Hermine 16 / Matthew 16 / Irma 17

Aric Dunn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 21238
Age: 42
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
Location: Ready for the Chase.
Contact:

Re: Re:

#5671 Postby Aric Dunn » Wed Aug 03, 2011 6:16 am

RL3AO wrote:
Evil Jeremy wrote:
RL3AO wrote:Theres the jog north.


Where is what jog?


Well not as much as I thought. Measured from the wrong spot while waiting for GE to update. Moved about 285 between VDMs.

Still well south of the models.

285 ?? hardly.. if anything that would be considered 260 for the last 3 fixes
0 likes   
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask :)

Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...

RL3AO
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 16308
Joined: Thu Jun 14, 2007 10:03 pm
Location: NC

Re: Re:

#5672 Postby RL3AO » Wed Aug 03, 2011 6:17 am

Aric Dunn wrote:285 ?? hardly.. if anything that would be considered 260 for the last 3 fixes

I'm talking about the 4th fix.
0 likes   

User avatar
NDG
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 15456
Joined: Sun Jul 09, 2006 10:14 pm
Location: Orlando, FL

#5673 Postby NDG » Wed Aug 03, 2011 6:18 am

Hey guys, tracking her last 3 fixes by the recon, Emily has moved on a 270 deg heading.
Recon is getting ready to fix her center again, with no change in heading.
0 likes   

Aric Dunn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 21238
Age: 42
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
Location: Ready for the Chase.
Contact:

Re: Re:

#5674 Postby Aric Dunn » Wed Aug 03, 2011 6:18 am

RL3AO wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:285 ?? hardly.. if anything that would be considered 260 for the last 3 fixes

I'm talking about the 4th fix.


well ok then.. :P
0 likes   
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask :)

Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...

User avatar
KWT
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 31415
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2004 11:02 am
Location: UK!!!

Re: Re:

#5675 Postby KWT » Wed Aug 03, 2011 6:18 am

RL3AO wrote:
Evil Jeremy wrote:
RL3AO wrote:Theres the jog north.


Where is what jog?


Well not as much as I thought. Measured from the wrong spot while waiting for GE to update. Moved about 285 between VDMs.

Still well south of the models.


Actually your right, just got the graphic through and its pretty much exactly 285 this time round.

Dropsonde just south of the center.

295 now needed to hit S.hispaniola...
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

Kory
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 200
Age: 29
Joined: Tue Aug 02, 2011 11:32 am
Location: New Orleans, Louisiana

Re: ATL: EMILY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#5676 Postby Kory » Wed Aug 03, 2011 6:19 am

Looks like Emily is experiencing a little southwesterly shear.
0 likes   

User avatar
KWT
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 31415
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2004 11:02 am
Location: UK!!!

Re: Re:

#5677 Postby KWT » Wed Aug 03, 2011 6:20 am

Aric Dunn wrote:285 ?? hardly.. if anything that would be considered 260 for the last 3 fixes


Fron the 1st fix to the last fix its been on pretty much a 275 heading...well south of the models.
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

User avatar
ronjon
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4832
Joined: Fri Aug 19, 2005 5:17 pm
Location: Hernando Beach, FL

Re: ATL: EMILY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#5678 Postby ronjon » Wed Aug 03, 2011 6:20 am

UKMET seem to the only model consistently more west and seem the most reasonable right now


Actually 00z CMC seems to be nailing the track at the moment.

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
Evil Jeremy
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5463
Age: 32
Joined: Mon Apr 10, 2006 2:10 pm
Location: Los Angeles, CA

Re: ATL: EMILY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#5679 Postby Evil Jeremy » Wed Aug 03, 2011 6:21 am

My updated graphic. I created a white circle and placed it over the west wind observation. It's an unofficial circle lol.

Image
0 likes   
Frances 04 / Jeanne 04 / Katrina 05 / Wilma 05 / Fay 08 / Debby 12 / Andrea 13 / Colin 16 / Hermine 16 / Matthew 16 / Irma 17

jlauderdal
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 7193
Joined: Wed May 19, 2004 5:46 am
Location: NE Fort Lauderdale
Contact:

Re: Re:

#5680 Postby jlauderdal » Wed Aug 03, 2011 6:22 am

Aric Dunn wrote:
KWT wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:That and she has pretty much been moving due west all night.. couple wobbles here and there


Yep, certainly not heading 285 at then moment...

Looks to me like motion has been about 275-280 between the last two fixes...still quite westerly though.


well if you look at those last 3 fixes.. its slightly south of west.. lol


that ridge is really pressing down on the system, same thing happened with ike a few years ago, they need a g4 mission asap to figure out the ridge situation because so far they dont seem to have a handle on it
0 likes   


Return to “2011”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 3 guests