USTropics wrote:In case no one has read dr. Carvers thoughts earlier this morning (he's filling in for Jeff masters blog):
According to the most recent forecast issued by NHC, Emily was forecast to be at 17.5N, 72.5W at 2AM EDT, which is a point 68 miles west-northwest of it's assigned location. This indicates that Emily is not curving northwards as expected. This makes me more skeptical of the computer model forecasts that pull Emily to the northwards sharply towards the southeast coast of Florida before recurving out to sea. All of the 00Z global models (NOGAPS, GFS, and CMC) are in rough agreement.
The forecast tracks provided by the suite of simpler models, the Beta and Advection Models and CLIPER, disagree. They have Emily taking a much more gradual turn to the north, thus moving northwest across Cuba. Given that these models have done a better job of predicting Emily's westwards track, I'm inclined to place more confidence in their predictions. However, the further west Emily goes, the chance that Emily makes landfall in Florida (due to a recurve) goes up. People with interests in Cuba and south Florida should keep an eye on this storm.
He makes a lot of sense.
