Global model runs discussion

[HurricaneBrain]

GFS on Saturday:

[cycloneye]

Longtracker by GFS

12z GFS continues to show a CV longtracker that forms from one of the waves that are still inside Africa.

12z GFS Loop

[cycloneye]

The 12z ECMWF has a wave developing,but the timeframe suggests is another one as by 192 hours,GFS has the longtracker north of PR.

[ConvergenceZone]

Keep them model plots coming....good stuff!

[cycloneye]

Keem them model plots coming....good stuff!

When the Euro speaks,you have to pay close attention And if you have that and GFS,it means the best consensus you can have between the top two models.

[ConvergenceZone]

Keem them model plots coming....good stuff!

When the Euro speaks,you have to pay close attention And if you have that and GFS,it means the best consensus you can have between the top two models.

It just seems like everything that's been coming off the coast has been fizzling so quick!

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

Keem them model plots coming....good stuff!

When the Euro speaks,you have to pay close attention And if you have that and GFS,it means the best consensus you can have between the top two models.

The ECMWF was very good with Emily. So lets pay close attention to this models as the Cape Verde Season is getting ready to begin!

[KWT]

both ECm/GFS show a upper high to the north of this system which moves west as well...

My gut would be saying this could be a player but we'll need to see how it handles coming offland...

GFS much faster with this system as well...

[cycloneye]

Another run (18Z) by GFS showing CV development. It starts at 36 hours.



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[cycloneye]

18z GFS run on a recurve track between the East Coast of U.S and Bermuda.

18z Loop

[KWT]

Don't think thats the system Cycloneye, the system buries itself into Caribbean after decaying, If you track the Vort its quite obvious the system hits CA in the end.

[cycloneye]

Don't think thats the system Cycloneye, the system buries itself into Caribbean after decaying, If you track the Vort its quite obvious the system hits CA in the end.

I guess we have to wait another day or two to see a more clear picture about which wave is what the models are latching on.

[Rgv20]

Very interesting cycloneye, that the GFS has been persistent on developing a system starting this Sunday..I guess we are going to find out soon if the GFS solution is going to verify.

The Euro has been really consisting on showing CV development starting late next week until the weekend. When the Euro starts been persisting its hard to ignore even though its 7 to 9 days out.




12zECMWF forecast 850mb vorticity valid for Saturday (Aug13). Development looks to be around 15n and 36w (Per Accuweather Pro)

[ROCK]

at 15N that would be a classic recurve TC....

[somethingfunny]

I have a very tough time buying the GFS solution of a storm developing east of the Cape Verde Islands around 12-13N and making it all the way across to Puerto Rico.

[SFLcane]

at 15N that would be a classic recurve TC....

At 15 north it doesn't have much chance getting through the east coast trough.

[lebron23]

If development does pick up...i think it will start really ramping up by august 20th...

[KWT]

Current pattern means its going to be very very difficult to get a US landfall, probably the best way is a weak system makes it to neasr the Bahamas and explodes just at the same time as some brief ridging comes in, but the pattern is TROUGHY in a big way, just loike last yeaer, in fact almost a clone of last year.

[ronjon]

It's fantasy land but 06z GFS shows a big ramp up in activity the next 2 weeks. BTW, the GOM storm is the one supposed to come off Africa in the next few days.

[cycloneye]

I would like to see a bit more enthusiasm by ECMWF before I start to believe entirely what GFS has been showing for the past two days of consecutive runs.But as I said before,there is no doubt that the models are sniffing the start of the CV season in earnest.