ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[KWT]

Yep moisture could well get sheared off,the models that keep it drier are probably not noticing there is probably a redeveloping TC out there at the moment, so thats why I suspect they are underdoing moisture return a little over Florida.

[artist]

from our Hazardous Weather Outlook -

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST EVERY DAY THROUGH
THE PERIOD AND THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM EMILY WILL MOVE
THROUGH DURING SATURDAY. HEAVY RAINFALL, GUSTY WINDS, AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE MAIN THREATS.

[mutley]

Could someone please post a link to the mimic?

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... /main.html

Thanks. Much appreciated.

[artist]

looking pretty good on Cuban radar here -
http://www.insmet.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB ... AXw01a.gif
wish they had longer loops.

[TAD]

Nope! I just joined.

I was really surprised when Emily fell apart like that. I read in the news about the flare and then saw it mentioned here... well two synapses got together and I thought maybe there's a correlation.

one wonders if Gcane and TAD are one and the same?

[gatorcane]

The 700MB ridge north of the system is definitely stronger in the 18Z as compared to the 12Z....I am guessing why the NHC is mentioning a NW movement instead of North or NW as they mentioned earlier.

Not sure if anybody caught this:

12Z (+6 hours):


18Z (0 hours):

[KWT]

Yep I noticed that, of course if anything of any real strengvth gets going its going to pretty rapidly evacuate NNW/N and eventually out to sea still I'd suspect.

[GCANE]

one wonders if Gcane and TAD are one and the same?

Totally hysterical because I was thinking the same thing.

Honestly no, but a good part of the northern US could see the aurora tonight.

http://www.softservenews.com/aurora.htm

[gatorcane]

Yeah I am not sure why they would not mention South Florida in that TWO...doesn't make sense really, especially when you look at the GFS and see that the 18Z run shows a stronger ridge north of the system right now as compared to what the 12Z forecasted there to be at this time......

[Vortex]

How about the latest IR...Much more circular and slowly moving NW..Should pass just west of Andros over the next 6-12 hours...I have little doubt should be at TS status tomorrow...






http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconusir.html

[Aric Dunn]

Yeah I am not sure why they would not mention South Florida in that TWO...doesn't make sense really, especially when you look at the GFS and see that the 18Z run shows a stronger ridge north of the system right now as compared to what the 12Z forecasted there to be at this time......

that and if the system does somehow get vertically stacked the 300mb flow is mostly east to west... so it would feel the effects of that a little and probably struggle to turn at first..

[cycloneye]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


If actual trends continue thru Saturday afternoon,recon will find a TD or TS.

[floridasun78]

with space were low could be it look like not going have too much time to be strong maybe 45mph The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Nimbus]

Looks like it will be moving closer to Miami than Havana ATM. It's slowly gathering convection and if the strengthening ridge trend continues It could come ashore. Hopefully the surface circulation is broad enough that it won't regain storm status before heading out to sea.

[cycloneye]

The Cuban Radar doesn't loop with more timeframes like the NWS radars,but at least you can see how things are going with the remnants.

[GCANE]

Very high rain-rate a few hours ago.

IMHO, chances look very good for development tonight.

DMAX around sunrise could also add a little kick as well.

[SouthDadeFish]

Convection looks to be waning a little though. I would like to see a nice burst over the center before to gain some confidence in regeneration sometime tomorrow.

[cycloneye]

00z Tracks.



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[stormreader]

Nope! I just joined.

I was really surprised when Emily fell apart like that. I read in the news about the flare and then saw it mentioned here... well two synapses got together and I thought maybe there's a correlation.

one wonders if Gcane and TAD are one and the same?

Well I'm listening because I'm not satisfied with the mountains of DR explanation. I think there's much more to it.

[ozonepete]

Two recent IR satellite images. Note how the seabreeze thunderstorms over western Cuba are dying out now. They were never part of the real circulation that's developing from Emily's remnant but they were surely enhanced by the north winds on the western side of the low pressure.