ATL: EMILY - Remnants

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KWT
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#8101 Postby KWT » Fri Aug 05, 2011 7:22 pm

Yep moisture could well get sheared off,the models that keep it drier are probably not noticing there is probably a redeveloping TC out there at the moment, so thats why I suspect they are underdoing moisture return a little over Florida.
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#8102 Postby artist » Fri Aug 05, 2011 7:25 pm

from our Hazardous Weather Outlook -

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST EVERY DAY THROUGH
THE PERIOD AND THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM EMILY WILL MOVE
THROUGH DURING SATURDAY. HEAVY RAINFALL, GUSTY WINDS, AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE MAIN THREATS.
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Re: Re:

#8103 Postby mutley » Fri Aug 05, 2011 7:25 pm

TheBurn wrote:
mutley wrote:Could someone please post a link to the mimic?

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... /main.html


Thanks. Much appreciated.
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#8104 Postby artist » Fri Aug 05, 2011 7:27 pm

looking pretty good on Cuban radar here -
http://www.insmet.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB ... AXw01a.gif
wish they had longer loops.
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Re:

#8105 Postby TAD » Fri Aug 05, 2011 7:28 pm

Nope! I just joined.

I was really surprised when Emily fell apart like that. I read in the news about the flare and then saw it mentioned here... well two synapses got together and I thought maybe there's a correlation.

WilmingtonSandbar wrote:one wonders if Gcane and TAD are one and the same? :lol: :lol:
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#8106 Postby gatorcane » Fri Aug 05, 2011 7:30 pm

The 700MB ridge north of the system is definitely stronger in the 18Z as compared to the 12Z....I am guessing why the NHC is mentioning a NW movement instead of North or NW as they mentioned earlier.

Not sure if anybody caught this:

12Z (+6 hours):
Image

18Z (0 hours):
Image
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#8107 Postby KWT » Fri Aug 05, 2011 7:31 pm

Yep I noticed that, of course if anything of any real strengvth gets going its going to pretty rapidly evacuate NNW/N and eventually out to sea still I'd suspect.
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Re: Re:

#8108 Postby GCANE » Fri Aug 05, 2011 7:31 pm

wzrgirl1 wrote:
WilmingtonSandbar wrote:one wonders if Gcane and TAD are one and the same? :lol: :lol:



Totally hysterical because I was thinking the same thing. 8-)



Honestly no, but a good part of the northern US could see the aurora tonight.

http://www.softservenews.com/aurora.htm
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#8109 Postby gatorcane » Fri Aug 05, 2011 7:32 pm

Yeah I am not sure why they would not mention South Florida in that TWO...doesn't make sense really, especially when you look at the GFS and see that the 18Z run shows a stronger ridge north of the system right now as compared to what the 12Z forecasted there to be at this time......
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#8110 Postby Vortex » Fri Aug 05, 2011 7:36 pm

How about the latest IR...Much more circular and slowly moving NW..Should pass just west of Andros over the next 6-12 hours...I have little doubt should be at TS status tomorrow...






http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconusir.html
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Re:

#8111 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Aug 05, 2011 7:38 pm

gatorcane wrote:Yeah I am not sure why they would not mention South Florida in that TWO...doesn't make sense really, especially when you look at the GFS and see that the 18Z run shows a stronger ridge north of the system right now as compared to what the 12Z forecasted there to be at this time......


that and if the system does somehow get vertically stacked the 300mb flow is mostly east to west... so it would feel the effects of that a little and probably struggle to turn at first..
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Re: ATL: EMILY - Remnants - Discussion

#8112 Postby cycloneye » Fri Aug 05, 2011 7:41 pm

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If actual trends continue thru Saturday afternoon,recon will find a TD or TS.
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#8113 Postby floridasun78 » Fri Aug 05, 2011 7:52 pm

with space were low could be it look like not going have too much time to be strong maybe 45mph The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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Re: ATL: Ex EMILY - Models

#8114 Postby Nimbus » Fri Aug 05, 2011 7:55 pm

Looks like it will be moving closer to Miami than Havana ATM. It's slowly gathering convection and if the strengthening ridge trend continues It could come ashore. Hopefully the surface circulation is broad enough that it won't regain storm status before heading out to sea.
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Re: ATL: EMILY - Remnants - Discussion

#8115 Postby cycloneye » Fri Aug 05, 2011 8:02 pm

The Cuban Radar doesn't loop with more timeframes like the NWS radars,but at least you can see how things are going with the remnants.

Image
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Re: ATL: EMILY - Remnants - Discussion

#8116 Postby GCANE » Fri Aug 05, 2011 8:03 pm

Very high rain-rate a few hours ago.

IMHO, chances look very good for development tonight.

DMAX around sunrise could also add a little kick as well.

Image


Image
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#8117 Postby SouthDadeFish » Fri Aug 05, 2011 8:03 pm

Convection looks to be waning a little though. I would like to see a nice burst over the center before to gain some confidence in regeneration sometime tomorrow.
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Re: ATL: Ex EMILY - Models

#8118 Postby cycloneye » Fri Aug 05, 2011 8:07 pm

00z Tracks.

Image

Uploaded by Imageshack.us
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Re: Re:

#8119 Postby stormreader » Fri Aug 05, 2011 8:07 pm

TAD wrote:Nope! I just joined.

I was really surprised when Emily fell apart like that. I read in the news about the flare and then saw it mentioned here... well two synapses got together and I thought maybe there's a correlation.

WilmingtonSandbar wrote:one wonders if Gcane and TAD are one and the same? :lol: :lol:


Well I'm listening because I'm not satisfied with the mountains of DR explanation. I think there's much more to it.
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Re: ATL: EMILY - Remnants - Discussion

#8120 Postby ozonepete » Fri Aug 05, 2011 8:08 pm

Two recent IR satellite images. Note how the seabreeze thunderstorms over western Cuba are dying out now. They were never part of the real circulation that's developing from Emily's remnant but they were surely enhanced by the north winds on the western side of the low pressure.

Image

Image
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