ATL: Ex INVEST 92L - Discussion
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models
Models are being runned again on 92L.

Code: Select all
WHXX01 KWBC 100038
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0038 UTC WED AUG 10 2011
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL922011) 20110809 0000 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
110809 0000 110809 1200 110810 0000 110810 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 12.1N 28.5W 12.2N 29.7W 12.2N 31.0W 12.5N 32.5W
BAMD 12.1N 28.5W 12.5N 29.7W 13.2N 31.2W 14.0N 33.0W
BAMM 12.1N 28.5W 12.4N 29.7W 12.8N 31.0W 13.4N 32.8W
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
110811 0000 110812 0000 110813 0000 110814 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 13.0N 34.1W 14.3N 38.8W 15.9N 45.1W 18.0N 52.0W
BAMD 15.0N 35.2W 17.5N 40.8W 20.1N 46.5W 22.3N 51.2W
BAMM 14.2N 35.0W 16.1N 40.9W 18.2N 47.8W 20.7N 54.2W
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 12.1N LONCUR = 28.5W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 15KT
LATM12 = 11.6N LONM12 = 25.6W DIRM12 = 281DEG SPDM12 = 14KT
LATM24 = 11.1N LONM24 = 22.6W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 75NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 180NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models
cycloneye wrote:Models are being runned again on 92L.Code: Select all
WHXX01 KWBC 100038
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0038 UTC WED AUG 10 2011
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL922011) 20110809 0000 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
110809 0000 110809 1200 110810 0000 110810 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 12.1N 28.5W 12.2N 29.7W 12.2N 31.0W 12.5N 32.5W
BAMD 12.1N 28.5W 12.5N 29.7W 13.2N 31.2W 14.0N 33.0W
BAMM 12.1N 28.5W 12.4N 29.7W 12.8N 31.0W 13.4N 32.8W
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
110811 0000 110812 0000 110813 0000 110814 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 13.0N 34.1W 14.3N 38.8W 15.9N 45.1W 18.0N 52.0W
BAMD 15.0N 35.2W 17.5N 40.8W 20.1N 46.5W 22.3N 51.2W
BAMM 14.2N 35.0W 16.1N 40.9W 18.2N 47.8W 20.7N 54.2W
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 12.1N LONCUR = 28.5W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 15KT
LATM12 = 11.6N LONM12 = 25.6W DIRM12 = 281DEG SPDM12 = 14KT
LATM24 = 11.1N LONM24 = 22.6W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 75NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 180NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
so the return of 92l
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- cycloneye
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion
Florida1118 wrote:It would appear sofloridasun78 wrote:so 92l back?

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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models
Macrocane wrote:I'm surprised that nobody has mentioned it yet but now most of the global models are in agreeement about the development of a tropical cyclone in the MDR.
-GFS, FIM and UKMET show a tropical storm developing in about 4 or 5 days. FIM shows landfall in Florida at the end of the run.
-CMC is a little more bullish and develops the system in the nex 2 days.
-NOGAPS keeps it as a well defined low/TD.
-ECMWF is the less bullish and I think it has only a weak reflection.
Or maybe I'm wrong and they are developing another wave, what do you think?
What is the FIM?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion
Latest ASCAT made just before 7 PM EDT.


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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models
Macrocane wrote:I'm surprised that nobody has mentioned it yet but now most of the global models are in agreeement about the development of a tropical cyclone in the MDR.
-GFS, FIM and UKMET show a tropical storm developing in about 4 or 5 days. FIM shows landfall in Florida at the end of the run.
-CMC is a little more bullish and develops the system in the nex 2 days.
-NOGAPS keeps it as a well defined low/TD.
-ECMWF is the less bullish and I think it has only a weak reflection.
Or maybe I'm wrong and they are developing another wave, what do you think?
And also the Global Models now unanimously agree on 92l taking a track NE of the Lesser Antilles and recurving it out to the open Atlantic.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models
FIM is an experimental global model, here's a link: http://fim.noaa.gov/FIMscp/Welcome.cgi?dsKey=fim&domain=244&run_time=09+Aug+2011+-+12Z
I have followed it for 2 weeks only but I like what I've seen so far.
I have followed it for 2 weeks only but I like what I've seen so far.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models
Rgv20 wrote:Macrocane wrote:I'm surprised that nobody has mentioned it yet but now most of the global models are in agreeement about the development of a tropical cyclone in the MDR.
-GFS, FIM and UKMET show a tropical storm developing in about 4 or 5 days. FIM shows landfall in Florida at the end of the run.
-CMC is a little more bullish and develops the system in the nex 2 days.
-NOGAPS keeps it as a well defined low/TD.
-ECMWF is the less bullish and I think it has only a weak reflection.
Or maybe I'm wrong and they are developing another wave, what do you think?
And also the Global Models now unanimously agree on 92l taking a track NE of the Lesser Antilles and recurving it out to the open Atlantic.
I'm not sure about the unanimity of a fish. The FIM and Nogaps dont recurve it early and the CMC is too early to tell. Still, with it over 1500 miles east of land, plenty of time to see how models evolve.
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- cycloneye
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion
Look how much moist air this system has.


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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion
I think we may have our first Major in the makings.
Just my opinion.
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Just my opinion.
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Re:
Rgv20 wrote::uarrow: oh I think the Forecast models would eventually correct themselves west with future runs. Its going to be interesting to see how much latitude it gains when it reaches 55W.
How so? will a ridge be building in westwards, not allowing it to recurve?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion
cycloneye wrote:Look how much moist air this system has.
dang.. the rotation on this system is impressive...
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Re: Re:
HurricaneWarning92 wrote:Rgv20 wrote::uarrow: oh I think the Forecast models would eventually correct themselves west with future runs. Its going to be interesting to see how much latitude it gains when it reaches 55W.
How so? will a ridge be building in westwards, not allowing it to recurve?
Looking at the 12zECMWF and GFS forecast 500mb heights the trough on the east coast is weakening from 8 thru 10 days and being replace by a ridge in south eastern canada represented by the light orange colors on the map. This could potentially but the east coast at risk if 92l were to develop and track to the south west Atlantic.

Of course it is still way too early to forecast where 92l will track, just have to keep all options open at this point.
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