ATL: Ex INVEST 92L - Discussion

[floridasun78]

so invest 92 back ? outlook starting talk about it

[cycloneye]

[x-y-no]

BEST TRACK: AL92, 121N 285W, 25kts, 1010mb, LO INVEST

[cycloneye]

Models are being runned again on 92L.

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KWBC 100038
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0038 UTC WED AUG 10 2011
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL922011) 20110809 0000 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        110809  0000   110809  1200   110810  0000   110810  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    12.1N  28.5W   12.2N  29.7W   12.2N  31.0W   12.5N  32.5W
BAMD    12.1N  28.5W   12.5N  29.7W   13.2N  31.2W   14.0N  33.0W
BAMM    12.1N  28.5W   12.4N  29.7W   12.8N  31.0W   13.4N  32.8W
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        110811  0000   110812  0000   110813  0000   110814  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    13.0N  34.1W   14.3N  38.8W   15.9N  45.1W   18.0N  52.0W
BAMD    15.0N  35.2W   17.5N  40.8W   20.1N  46.5W   22.3N  51.2W
BAMM    14.2N  35.0W   16.1N  40.9W   18.2N  47.8W   20.7N  54.2W
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  12.1N LONCUR =  28.5W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR =  15KT
LATM12 =  11.6N LONM12 =  25.6W DIRM12 = 281DEG SPDM12 =  14KT
LATM24 =  11.1N LONM24 =  22.6W
WNDCUR =   25KT RMAXWD =   75NM WNDM12 =   25KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD =  180NM SDEPTH =   S
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 


[floridasun78]

so 92l back?

[floridasun78]

Models are being runned again on 92L.

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KWBC 100038
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0038 UTC WED AUG 10 2011
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL922011) 20110809 0000 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        110809  0000   110809  1200   110810  0000   110810  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    12.1N  28.5W   12.2N  29.7W   12.2N  31.0W   12.5N  32.5W
BAMD    12.1N  28.5W   12.5N  29.7W   13.2N  31.2W   14.0N  33.0W
BAMM    12.1N  28.5W   12.4N  29.7W   12.8N  31.0W   13.4N  32.8W
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        110811  0000   110812  0000   110813  0000   110814  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    13.0N  34.1W   14.3N  38.8W   15.9N  45.1W   18.0N  52.0W
BAMD    15.0N  35.2W   17.5N  40.8W   20.1N  46.5W   22.3N  51.2W
BAMM    14.2N  35.0W   16.1N  40.9W   18.2N  47.8W   20.7N  54.2W
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  12.1N LONCUR =  28.5W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR =  15KT
LATM12 =  11.6N LONM12 =  25.6W DIRM12 = 281DEG SPDM12 =  14KT
LATM24 =  11.1N LONM24 =  22.6W
WNDCUR =   25KT RMAXWD =   75NM WNDM12 =   25KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD =  180NM SDEPTH =   S
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 


so the return of 92l

[Florida1118]

It would appear so

so 92l back?

[cycloneye]

It would appear so

so 92l back?

[Florida1118]

As always, thanks

[Blown Away]

I'm surprised that nobody has mentioned it yet but now most of the global models are in agreeement about the development of a tropical cyclone in the MDR.
-GFS, FIM and UKMET show a tropical storm developing in about 4 or 5 days. FIM shows landfall in Florida at the end of the run.
-CMC is a little more bullish and develops the system in the nex 2 days.
-NOGAPS keeps it as a well defined low/TD.
-ECMWF is the less bullish and I think it has only a weak reflection.

Or maybe I'm wrong and they are developing another wave, what do you think?

What is the FIM?

[cycloneye]

Latest ASCAT made just before 7 PM EDT.

[Rgv20]

I'm surprised that nobody has mentioned it yet but now most of the global models are in agreeement about the development of a tropical cyclone in the MDR.
-GFS, FIM and UKMET show a tropical storm developing in about 4 or 5 days. FIM shows landfall in Florida at the end of the run.
-CMC is a little more bullish and develops the system in the nex 2 days.
-NOGAPS keeps it as a well defined low/TD.
-ECMWF is the less bullish and I think it has only a weak reflection.

Or maybe I'm wrong and they are developing another wave, what do you think?

And also the Global Models now unanimously agree on 92l taking a track NE of the Lesser Antilles and recurving it out to the open Atlantic.

[Macrocane]

FIM is an experimental global model, here's a link: http://fim.noaa.gov/FIMscp/Welcome.cgi?dsKey=fim&domain=244&run_time=09+Aug+2011+-+12Z

I have followed it for 2 weeks only but I like what I've seen so far.

[BigA]

I'm surprised that nobody has mentioned it yet but now most of the global models are in agreeement about the development of a tropical cyclone in the MDR.
-GFS, FIM and UKMET show a tropical storm developing in about 4 or 5 days. FIM shows landfall in Florida at the end of the run.
-CMC is a little more bullish and develops the system in the nex 2 days.
-NOGAPS keeps it as a well defined low/TD.
-ECMWF is the less bullish and I think it has only a weak reflection.

Or maybe I'm wrong and they are developing another wave, what do you think?

And also the Global Models now unanimously agree on 92l taking a track NE of the Lesser Antilles and recurving it out to the open Atlantic.

I'm not sure about the unanimity of a fish. The FIM and Nogaps dont recurve it early and the CMC is too early to tell. Still, with it over 1500 miles east of land, plenty of time to see how models evolve.

[cycloneye]

Look how much moist air this system has.

[Windtalker1]

I think we may have our first Major in the makings.
Just my opinion.


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Rgv20]

oh I think the Forecast models would eventually correct themselves west with future runs. Its going to be interesting to see how much latitude it gains when it reaches 55W.

[HurricaneWarning92]

:uarrow: oh I think the Forecast models would eventually correct themselves west with future runs. Its going to be interesting to see how much latitude it gains when it reaches 55W.

How so? will a ridge be building in westwards, not allowing it to recurve?

[HurricaneWarning92]

Look how much moist air this system has.

dang.. the rotation on this system is impressive...

[Rgv20]

:uarrow: oh I think the Forecast models would eventually correct themselves west with future runs. Its going to be interesting to see how much latitude it gains when it reaches 55W.

How so? will a ridge be building in westwards, not allowing it to recurve?

Looking at the 12zECMWF and GFS forecast 500mb heights the trough on the east coast is weakening from 8 thru 10 days and being replace by a ridge in south eastern canada represented by the light orange colors on the map. This could potentially but the east coast at risk if 92l were to develop and track to the south west Atlantic.



Of course it is still way too early to forecast where 92l will track, just have to keep all options open at this point.