ATL : HARVEY - Tropical Depression - Discussion

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Post Reply
Message
Author
User avatar
Macrocane
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4218
Age: 36
Joined: Sun May 24, 2009 5:35 pm
Location: El Salvador

Re: ATL: Ex INVEST 93L - Models

#641 Postby Macrocane » Sun Aug 14, 2011 12:51 pm

I was going to say that, Are you being sarcastic Rock? :wink: Or am I missing something?
0 likes   
Top
Kory
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 200
Age: 29
Joined: Tue Aug 02, 2011 11:32 am
Location: New Orleans, Louisiana

Re:

#642 Postby Kory » Sun Aug 14, 2011 12:54 pm

BigB0882 wrote:I don't see much on those maps. Is it at the very bottom of the BOC? Doesn't look like much to me and the moisture it brings, which is better than nothing, looks minimal and I seriously doubt would be so wide spread.

Yes the map shows an open wave in the Bay of Campeche...nothing to get too excited about. May bring a little more moisture to Texas.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 145322
Age: 68
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: Ex INVEST 93L - Models

#643 Postby cycloneye » Sun Aug 14, 2011 1:00 pm

Macrocane wrote:I was going to say that, Are you being sarcastic Rock? :wink: Or am I missing something?


He was sarcastic. :)
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Top
User avatar
ROCK
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 9484
Age: 54
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2004 7:30 am
Location: Kemah, Texas

Re: ATL: Ex INVEST 93L - Models

#644 Postby ROCK » Sun Aug 14, 2011 1:05 pm

Macrocane wrote:I was going to say that, Are you being sarcastic Rock? :wink: Or am I missing something?



sarcastic... this site was jacked... showing both yesterdays and todays run... :D

TW in the BOC is the right call
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
ROCK
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 9484
Age: 54
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2004 7:30 am
Location: Kemah, Texas

Re: ATL: Ex INVEST 93L - Models

#645 Postby ROCK » Sun Aug 14, 2011 1:11 pm

12Z NOGAPS looks like a good call and follows the GFS....

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
ROCK
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 9484
Age: 54
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2004 7:30 am
Location: Kemah, Texas

Re: ATL: Ex INVEST 93L - Models

#646 Postby ROCK » Sun Aug 14, 2011 1:22 pm

12Z GFDL for 92L slams 93L into CA.....never really closes it off....

about time for me to mossy on over to the TT forum and the global discussion thread.... :D
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Rgv20
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2466
Age: 38
Joined: Wed Jan 05, 2011 5:42 pm
Location: Edinburg/McAllen Tx

#647 Postby Rgv20 » Sun Aug 14, 2011 2:32 pm

12zUKEMT develops 93L once it crosses 75W on Thursday and by day 6 Saturday (Aug 20) its east of the Yucatan.

Image
0 likes   
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Top
User avatar
Rgv20
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2466
Age: 38
Joined: Wed Jan 05, 2011 5:42 pm
Location: Edinburg/McAllen Tx

#648 Postby Rgv20 » Sun Aug 14, 2011 2:56 pm

In my Opinion, 93L is going to try to develop when it reaches 75W on Thursday as the 12zUKMET is suggesting and as far as track I think the GFS&ECMWF are too far south. My thinking is that this morning UKMET run is very believable in showing a closed low east of the Yucatan Peninsula this coming Saturday.
0 likes   
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Top
User avatar
Nimbus
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5300
Joined: Mon Jul 19, 2004 10:54 am

Re: ATL : Ex INVEST 93L - Discussion

#649 Postby Nimbus » Sun Aug 14, 2011 3:02 pm

looks real dry in the eastern Caribbean on the water vapor imagery loop. They moved the mid level moisture map so I don't know if things are any better closer to the surface. Once 93L enters the Caribbean there will probably be the usual shear to deal with as well. Over near Jamaica conditions could improve but by then the "death ridge" over Texas would probably keep it on a western track into Mexico.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Extratropical94
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 3538
Age: 30
Joined: Wed Oct 20, 2010 6:36 am
Location: Hamburg, Germany
Contact:
Contact Extratropical94

#650 Postby Extratropical94 » Sun Aug 14, 2011 3:10 pm

Maybe a Matthew '10 like system, both track and intensity wise? Remember how he was predicted to become a cane, but struggled and "only" intensified to 60 mph.
Image
0 likes   
54° 11' 59'' N, 9° 9' 20'' E
Boomer Sooner!
Go Broncos! Go Cards! Go Niners!
- Daniel
Top
User avatar
northtxboy
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 262
Age: 43
Joined: Mon Jan 03, 2011 1:50 pm
Location: Windom Tx
Contact:
Contact northtxboy

#651 Postby northtxboy » Sun Aug 14, 2011 3:45 pm

I still think we are looking at a U.S lanfall with this system. Just my thoughts doesnt mean it will hapeen but there is a good chance for it.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Gustywind
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 12334
Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE

#652 Postby Gustywind » Sun Aug 14, 2011 3:50 pm

93L beginning its approach... not so far from the east Carib islands.
Image
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Portastorm
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 9914
Age: 63
Joined: Fri Jul 11, 2003 9:16 am
Location: Round Rock, TX
Contact:
Contact Portastorm

Re: ATL : Ex INVEST 93L - Discussion

#653 Postby Portastorm » Sun Aug 14, 2011 3:56 pm

Surprisingly, there's still a fair amount of vorticity to it based on this satellite image.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/flash-avn.html
0 likes   
Any forecasts under my name are to be taken with a grain of salt. Get your best forecasts from the National Weather Service and National Hurricane Center.
Top
User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 145322
Age: 68
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL : Ex INVEST 93L - Discussion

#654 Postby cycloneye » Sun Aug 14, 2011 4:05 pm

Portastorm wrote:Surprisingly, there's still a fair amount of vorticity to it based on this satellite image.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/flash-avn.html


If that trend continues,we may see 93L reactivated fairly soon.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Top
User avatar
Duddy
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 363
Joined: Sat Jun 10, 2006 9:07 pm
Location: Wilmington, NC

Re: ATL: Ex INVEST 93L - Models

#655 Postby Duddy » Sun Aug 14, 2011 4:11 pm

What does CA mean? Everytime I see it I'm thinking you guys are saying it's crossing Mexico and slamming in California.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 145322
Age: 68
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: Ex INVEST 93L - Models

#656 Postby cycloneye » Sun Aug 14, 2011 4:12 pm

Duddy wrote:What does CA mean? Everytime I see it I'm thinking you guys are saying it's crossing Mexico and slamming in California.


CA means Central America.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Top
jlauderdal
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 7183
Joined: Wed May 19, 2004 5:46 am
Location: NE Fort Lauderdale
Contact:
Contact jlauderdal

Re: ATL: Ex INVEST 93L - Models

#657 Postby jlauderdal » Sun Aug 14, 2011 4:13 pm

Duddy wrote:What does CA mean? Everytime I see it I'm thinking you guys are saying it's crossing Mexico and slamming in California.


central america
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
ROCK
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 9484
Age: 54
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2004 7:30 am
Location: Kemah, Texas

Re: ATL: Ex INVEST 93L - Models

#658 Postby ROCK » Sun Aug 14, 2011 4:20 pm

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_084l.gif

NAM- 84hr

still does not bite on the CA theory....the EURO still seems bent on sending this into CA...looking more and more likely unless this developes quickly...
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
ROCK
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 9484
Age: 54
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2004 7:30 am
Location: Kemah, Texas

Re: ATL : Ex INVEST 93L - Discussion

#659 Postby ROCK » Sun Aug 14, 2011 4:24 pm

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=

still some kick in this mule...maybe but it did this yesterday...also...
0 likes   
Top
lonelymike
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 634
Joined: Sat Jul 26, 2008 10:12 am
Location: walton county fla

Re:

#660 Postby lonelymike » Sun Aug 14, 2011 4:43 pm

northtxboy wrote:I still think we are looking at a U.S lanfall with this system. Just my thoughts doesnt mean it will hapeen but there is a good chance for it.



Please dazzle with your meterological logic about why you think a US landfall is possible? :P
0 likes   


GO SEMINOLES
Top
Post Reply

Return to “2011”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 4 guests