Pouch P17L in Eastern Atlantic -(Now Invest 97L)

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ROCK
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Re: Pouch P17L off African Coast

#81 Postby ROCK » Tue Aug 16, 2011 12:14 am

South Texas Storms wrote:Rock which system do you think is more likely to give us rain? 93L or this?



93L I gave up on....thats why I am posting here.... :lol:

future 97L will need to be watched.....GFS at over 200hrs out is la la land....look more to the EURO at 216 for clues of steering ahead.....of course it needs to develope first....
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#82 Postby KWT » Tue Aug 16, 2011 4:59 am

ECM blows this up, probably a major hurricane E of the Bahamas heading WNW at 240hrs.

Worth noting, that the weakness is still there so it may well eventuaslly recurve if the 00z ECM was right BUT the troughing is certainly weaker then it has been on the models...

Think this one has the potenial to be our first big one, most models go ape with it in the 180hrs range...

(ps, big front off Florida on the 00z ECM run at 240hrs fwiw)
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Re: Pouch P17L off African Coast

#83 Postby floridasun78 » Tue Aug 16, 2011 5:04 am

p17l look like got hit by dry air too like other invest
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#84 Postby KWT » Tue Aug 16, 2011 5:06 am

Most models to be fair really develop it further west which given how this season has been going so far seems pretty reasonable.

This is the first system all year where thwe models actually show significant development.
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#85 Postby floridasun78 » Tue Aug 16, 2011 5:28 am

this area suppose to be near leedwards by weekend?
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Re: Pouch P17L off African Coast

#86 Postby cycloneye » Tue Aug 16, 2011 5:52 am

Discussion by Rob of Crown Weather of the Eastern Atlantic wave.

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http://www.crownweather.com/?p=6602

Tropical Disturbance In The Eastern Atlantic:
Satellite imagery from the eastern Atlantic and western Africa showed that the tropical disturbance that emerged off of Africa yesterday continues to exhibit signs that it will likely develop into a tropical cyclone (Irene??) later on down the road. Water vapor satellite loops indicate that this disturbance is enveloped within a very moist environment, which is something that previous disturbances did not have.

All of the global model guidance are very consistent with developing this disturbance into a tropical cyclone once it gets past 50 or 55 West Longitude late this weekend. The latest GFS model run has a forecast that takes this system across the northeastern Caribbean early next week as an intensifying tropical cyclone and then into south Florida and the Tampa area as a powerful hurricane around August 27. The latest European model guidance forecasts this system to track across the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico early next week and then forecasts this system to be a strong hurricane very close to the Turks and Caicos islands next Thursday. It is very notable and somewhat worrisome that the European model has been consistently forecasting this strong of a tropical cyclone near the Greater Antilles and the southeastern Bahamas; especially since the European model has not shown any significant development all season long.

I caution the reader to not focus on each individual model guidance forecast cycle as they will change drastically from day to day. Instead, focus on the trends and the overall pattern which seems to strongly suggest that we are headed for a pattern that consists of a ridge of high pressure in the western United States and a trough of low pressure centered near the Mississippi River Valley in about seven to ten days from now. This pattern seems to also suggest that a western Atlantic high pressure system may strengthen and push westward towards the US East coast during next week and into next weekend. If this is forecast pattern comes true, then any tropical cyclones approaching from the east or southeast like is forecast by the model guidance may potentially impact the US Southeast coast, the Florida Peninsula or the eastern Gulf coast (The Alabama coastline or the Florida Panhandle).

So, for now, this is something that needs to be watched very closely. I do think that the Hurricane Season is about to get very to extremely active with potentially several hurricanes on the map at the same time sometime between late August and the first couple of weeks of September. Looking at the overall pattern during the 8 to 10 day timeframe, it appears that it sets up so that the Florida peninsula is at most risk from any approaching tropical cyclones, however, an area from Pensacola, Florida to Charleston, South Carolina is also at a significant risk from any approaching storms.

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Re: Pouch P17L off African Coast

#87 Postby OURAGAN » Tue Aug 16, 2011 5:56 am

You are right:

Here is a link, is forecasted near Guadeloupe on Sunday the 21 of August.

http://marine.meteoconsult.fr/meteo-mar ... chemin_fer
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Re: Pouch P17L off African Coast

#88 Postby dwsqos2 » Tue Aug 16, 2011 5:58 am

Until I see an eye pop out on visible satellite, I'm ignoring this one.
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Re: Pouch P17L off African Coast

#89 Postby ronjon » Tue Aug 16, 2011 6:05 am

06z GFS - hurricane heading toward Mobile.

Image
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Re: Pouch P17L off African Coast

#90 Postby South Texas Storms » Tue Aug 16, 2011 6:06 am

6z GFS makes landfall near Pensacola. Ivan, you hear?
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Re: Pouch P17L off African Coast

#91 Postby KWT » Tue Aug 16, 2011 6:09 am

dwsqos2 wrote:Until I see an eye pop out on visible satellite, I'm ignoring this one.


Ha!

To be fair, not one single storm has had even close to this level of agreement for a strong system o form, sure there have been some indivdual models that have liked some storms but none have had this level of agreement on a hurricane.

Long way to go but its certainly enough to warrent some real attention.

SAL/dry air will keep it in check for the time being, so probably won't be a system before 50W but thats usually the worst type of system...
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Re: Pouch P17L off African Coast

#92 Postby South Texas Storms » Tue Aug 16, 2011 6:36 am

If this becomes a hurricane approaching the U.S. in around 10 days like some models suggest, I think we may set a new record on Storm2K for having the most users online which was 927 on August 31, 2008.
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#93 Postby KWT » Tue Aug 16, 2011 6:43 am

Wow just seen how deep the GFS actually goes, 958mbs!! :eek:
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#94 Postby Stormcenter » Tue Aug 16, 2011 8:21 am

I hate burst anyone's bubble here but I'll believe it when I see it. Look at the opposite of this. No model saw Katrina this far out. She came out of nowhere literally.
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Re: Pouch P17L off African Coast

#95 Postby cycloneye » Tue Aug 16, 2011 8:28 am

Full disk view.

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Re: Pouch P17L off African Coast

#96 Postby storm4u » Tue Aug 16, 2011 9:05 am

when will they name this 97L ?
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#97 Postby Vortex » Tue Aug 16, 2011 9:08 am

looks to be a big ticket item....Can't ignore the consistancy of the GFS and Euro on board.
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#98 Postby Stormcenter » Tue Aug 16, 2011 9:13 am

We've seen models hype a system for many days in a row and then poof! :D

Seriously though we'll see if this "actually" pans out in the coming days.
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Re:

#99 Postby ConvergenceZone » Tue Aug 16, 2011 9:33 am

Stormcenter wrote:We've seen models hype a system for many days in a row and then poof! :D

Seriously though we'll see if this "actually" pans out in the coming days.


True StormCenter, It's different this time out though. This is the first time we've seen most of the models very bullish AND STRONG on a storm and they seem to be consistent. Plus, it's closer to peak season, which increases the reality that this could be the real deal.
Now, it's always possible you could be right, but just saying that the chances this time around are greater than they were before, because of the above mentioned reasons.
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#100 Postby Vortex » Tue Aug 16, 2011 9:34 am

1 hour until the 12z GFS rolls....
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