Moderator: S2k Moderators
South Texas Storms wrote:Rock which system do you think is more likely to give us rain? 93L or this?
Tropical Disturbance In The Eastern Atlantic:
Satellite imagery from the eastern Atlantic and western Africa showed that the tropical disturbance that emerged off of Africa yesterday continues to exhibit signs that it will likely develop into a tropical cyclone (Irene??) later on down the road. Water vapor satellite loops indicate that this disturbance is enveloped within a very moist environment, which is something that previous disturbances did not have.
All of the global model guidance are very consistent with developing this disturbance into a tropical cyclone once it gets past 50 or 55 West Longitude late this weekend. The latest GFS model run has a forecast that takes this system across the northeastern Caribbean early next week as an intensifying tropical cyclone and then into south Florida and the Tampa area as a powerful hurricane around August 27. The latest European model guidance forecasts this system to track across the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico early next week and then forecasts this system to be a strong hurricane very close to the Turks and Caicos islands next Thursday. It is very notable and somewhat worrisome that the European model has been consistently forecasting this strong of a tropical cyclone near the Greater Antilles and the southeastern Bahamas; especially since the European model has not shown any significant development all season long.
I caution the reader to not focus on each individual model guidance forecast cycle as they will change drastically from day to day. Instead, focus on the trends and the overall pattern which seems to strongly suggest that we are headed for a pattern that consists of a ridge of high pressure in the western United States and a trough of low pressure centered near the Mississippi River Valley in about seven to ten days from now. This pattern seems to also suggest that a western Atlantic high pressure system may strengthen and push westward towards the US East coast during next week and into next weekend. If this is forecast pattern comes true, then any tropical cyclones approaching from the east or southeast like is forecast by the model guidance may potentially impact the US Southeast coast, the Florida Peninsula or the eastern Gulf coast (The Alabama coastline or the Florida Panhandle).
So, for now, this is something that needs to be watched very closely. I do think that the Hurricane Season is about to get very to extremely active with potentially several hurricanes on the map at the same time sometime between late August and the first couple of weeks of September. Looking at the overall pattern during the 8 to 10 day timeframe, it appears that it sets up so that the Florida peninsula is at most risk from any approaching tropical cyclones, however, an area from Pensacola, Florida to Charleston, South Carolina is also at a significant risk from any approaching storms.
dwsqos2 wrote:Until I see an eye pop out on visible satellite, I'm ignoring this one.
.gif){kind=small}
Stormcenter wrote:We've seen models hype a system for many days in a row and then poof!
Seriously though we'll see if this "actually" pans out in the coming days.
Users browsing this forum: BobHarlem, Google Adsense [Bot] and 37 guests
