Pouch P17L in Eastern Atlantic -(Now Invest 97L)

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SouthDadeFish
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#121 Postby SouthDadeFish » Tue Aug 16, 2011 10:43 am

TPW shows it has ingested a fair bit of dry air though. That will slow any development over the next couple of days.
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#122 Postby ConvergenceZone » Tue Aug 16, 2011 10:51 am

SouthDadeFish wrote:TPW shows it has ingested a fair bit of dry air though. That will slow any development over the next couple of days.


Perhaps the slow development is why the models are showing it to be such a large threat to the U.S. With rapid development, we may not be seeing the U.S. threat....
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Re: Pouch P17L SSW of CV Islands

#123 Postby cycloneye » Tue Aug 16, 2011 10:51 am

The 12z Surface analysis shows what it looks like a low pressure that will be added at 18Z.

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Re: Pouch P17L SSW of CV Islands

#124 Postby SFLcane » Tue Aug 16, 2011 10:52 am

The way globals have performed this season thus far i wouldn't put to much stock on 200+ model outputs. Thay wave for now is surrounded by dry air and saharan dust just to its north. Development if any might wait till 50-55 west.
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Re: Re:

#125 Postby SouthDadeFish » Tue Aug 16, 2011 11:08 am

ConvergenceZone wrote:
SouthDadeFish wrote:TPW shows it has ingested a fair bit of dry air though. That will slow any development over the next couple of days.


Perhaps the slow development is why the models are showing it to be such a large threat to the U.S. With rapid development, we may not be seeing the U.S. threat....


I believe so. Until I see it kick out the dry air, I'm not sold on development. To me, the biggest thing it has going for it is that the almighty Euro really likes it. :wink:
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Re: Pouch P17L SSW of CV Islands

#126 Postby caneseddy » Tue Aug 16, 2011 11:13 am

12z GFS out to 96 hours, much further south and weak..looks like this is going to be a Caribbean cruiser
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Re: Re:

#127 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Aug 16, 2011 11:14 am

SouthDadeFish wrote:
ConvergenceZone wrote:
SouthDadeFish wrote:TPW shows it has ingested a fair bit of dry air though. That will slow any development over the next couple of days.


Perhaps the slow development is why the models are showing it to be such a large threat to the U.S. With rapid development, we may not be seeing the U.S. threat....


I believe so. Until I see it kick out the dry air, I'm not sold on development. To me, the biggest thing it has going for it is that the almighty Euro really likes it. :wink:


well the models never have really developed it till then anyway so they are actually doing quite well so far... and see my post about the above average consistency between the GFS and Euro on this system. not something to disregard just yet. this system compared the other from africa this season has the best low level structure by far and if it can get more convergence at the surface it could over come some of the dry air and give it a chance.
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Re: Pouch P17L SSW of CV Islands

#128 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Aug 16, 2011 11:15 am

caneseddy wrote:12z GFS out to 96 hours, much further south and weak..looks like this is going to be a Caribbean cruiser


its not much farther south and not really any weaker.. it is however much faster than the 6z.
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Re: Pouch P17L SSW of CV Islands

#129 Postby caneseddy » Tue Aug 16, 2011 11:16 am

Out to 108 hours, starts to intensify it between 55 and 60 degrees and starts to turn WNW towards the Windward Islands
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Re: Pouch P17L SSW of CV Islands

#130 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Aug 16, 2011 11:17 am

caneseddy wrote:Out to 108 hours, starts to intensify it between 55 and 60 degrees and starts to turn WNW towards the Windward Islands


yep and closer to the 6z run again .
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Re: Pouch P17L SSW of CV Islands

#131 Postby caneseddy » Tue Aug 16, 2011 11:19 am

Out to 120 hours...about to impact the Windward Islands around Dominica and Martinique
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Re: Pouch P17L SSW of CV Islands

#132 Postby caneseddy » Tue Aug 16, 2011 11:20 am

126 hours, entering the Caribbean still heading WNW while intensifying
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Re: Pouch P17L SW of CV Islands

#133 Postby caneseddy » Tue Aug 16, 2011 11:22 am

132 hours, approaching Puerto Rico still moving WNW

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... cal132.gif
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Re: Pouch P17L SW of CV Islands

#134 Postby caneseddy » Tue Aug 16, 2011 11:23 am

Looks to me like Puerto Rico is going to get smacked on this run first...out to 138 hours

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... cal138.gif
Last edited by caneseddy on Tue Aug 16, 2011 11:24 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Pouch P17L off African Coast

#135 Postby Ivanhater » Tue Aug 16, 2011 11:24 am

South Texas Storms wrote:6z GFS makes landfall near Pensacola. Ivan, you hear?


Well my goodness! :eek:

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#136 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Aug 16, 2011 11:24 am

basically the same run just a little faster... about 100 miles wnw of 6z run
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Re: Pouch P17L SW of CV Islands

#137 Postby caneseddy » Tue Aug 16, 2011 11:28 am

156 hours....about to hit eastern Hispaniola

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... cal156.gif

162 hours.....impact Hispaniola
Last edited by caneseddy on Tue Aug 16, 2011 11:30 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#138 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Aug 16, 2011 11:29 am

159hrs over eastern hispanola.. trough swinging down.. should turn in more WNW then leave it behind.
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#139 Postby Stormcenter » Tue Aug 16, 2011 11:31 am

If we've learned anything in the past 10 years it's that we don't need long trackers (Cape Verde) to have major hurricanes (see Charley and Katrina for examples) hit the U.S. mainland. What this disturbance does now is a concern for islands in the short term but not the U.S. mainland. My point is it does not need to do anything right now as long as it survives until is reaches favorable conditions in Carribean or wherever. Let's hope that never happens.
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Re: Pouch P17L SW of CV Islands

#140 Postby caneseddy » Tue Aug 16, 2011 11:33 am

174 hours exiting northern Hispaniola towards Turks and Caicos
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