Pouch P17L in Eastern Atlantic -(Now Invest 97L)

[SouthDadeFish]

TPW shows it has ingested a fair bit of dry air though. That will slow any development over the next couple of days.

[ConvergenceZone]

TPW shows it has ingested a fair bit of dry air though. That will slow any development over the next couple of days.

Perhaps the slow development is why the models are showing it to be such a large threat to the U.S. With rapid development, we may not be seeing the U.S. threat....

[cycloneye]

The 12z Surface analysis shows what it looks like a low pressure that will be added at 18Z.



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[SFLcane]

The way globals have performed this season thus far i wouldn't put to much stock on 200+ model outputs. Thay wave for now is surrounded by dry air and saharan dust just to its north. Development if any might wait till 50-55 west.

[SouthDadeFish]

TPW shows it has ingested a fair bit of dry air though. That will slow any development over the next couple of days.

Perhaps the slow development is why the models are showing it to be such a large threat to the U.S. With rapid development, we may not be seeing the U.S. threat....

I believe so. Until I see it kick out the dry air, I'm not sold on development. To me, the biggest thing it has going for it is that the almighty Euro really likes it.

[caneseddy]

12z GFS out to 96 hours, much further south and weak..looks like this is going to be a Caribbean cruiser

[Aric Dunn]

TPW shows it has ingested a fair bit of dry air though. That will slow any development over the next couple of days.

Perhaps the slow development is why the models are showing it to be such a large threat to the U.S. With rapid development, we may not be seeing the U.S. threat....

I believe so. Until I see it kick out the dry air, I'm not sold on development. To me, the biggest thing it has going for it is that the almighty Euro really likes it.

well the models never have really developed it till then anyway so they are actually doing quite well so far... and see my post about the above average consistency between the GFS and Euro on this system. not something to disregard just yet. this system compared the other from africa this season has the best low level structure by far and if it can get more convergence at the surface it could over come some of the dry air and give it a chance.

[Aric Dunn]

12z GFS out to 96 hours, much further south and weak..looks like this is going to be a Caribbean cruiser

its not much farther south and not really any weaker.. it is however much faster than the 6z.

[caneseddy]

Out to 108 hours, starts to intensify it between 55 and 60 degrees and starts to turn WNW towards the Windward Islands

[Aric Dunn]

Out to 108 hours, starts to intensify it between 55 and 60 degrees and starts to turn WNW towards the Windward Islands

yep and closer to the 6z run again .

[caneseddy]

Out to 120 hours...about to impact the Windward Islands around Dominica and Martinique

[caneseddy]

126 hours, entering the Caribbean still heading WNW while intensifying

[caneseddy]

132 hours, approaching Puerto Rico still moving WNW

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... cal132.gif

[caneseddy]

Looks to me like Puerto Rico is going to get smacked on this run first...out to 138 hours

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... cal138.gif

[Ivanhater]

6z GFS makes landfall near Pensacola. Ivan, you hear?

Well my goodness!

[Aric Dunn]

basically the same run just a little faster... about 100 miles wnw of 6z run

[caneseddy]

156 hours....about to hit eastern Hispaniola

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... cal156.gif

162 hours.....impact Hispaniola

[Aric Dunn]

159hrs over eastern hispanola.. trough swinging down.. should turn in more WNW then leave it behind.

[Stormcenter]

If we've learned anything in the past 10 years it's that we don't need long trackers (Cape Verde) to have major hurricanes (see Charley and Katrina for examples) hit the U.S. mainland. What this disturbance does now is a concern for islands in the short term but not the U.S. mainland. My point is it does not need to do anything right now as long as it survives until is reaches favorable conditions in Carribean or wherever. Let's hope that never happens.

[caneseddy]

174 hours exiting northern Hispaniola towards Turks and Caicos