Pouch P17L in Eastern Atlantic -(Now Invest 97L)

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caneseddy
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Re: Pouch P17L SW of CV Islands

#141 Postby caneseddy » Tue Aug 16, 2011 11:38 am

192 hours, intensifying in the Southern Bahamas moving WNW

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... cal192.gif
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Re: Pouch P17L SW of CV Islands

#142 Postby Ivanhater » Tue Aug 16, 2011 11:39 am

240 approaching Florida Keys....ridge building

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... cal240.gif
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Re: Pouch P17L SW of CV Islands

#143 Postby caneseddy » Tue Aug 16, 2011 11:39 am

At 228 hours, really bombs it out heading towards S. Florida

At 240 hours, major hurricane hit on South Florida

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... cal240.gif
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Re: Pouch P17L SW of CV Islands

#144 Postby caneseddy » Tue Aug 16, 2011 11:41 am

heading towards Pensacola again...pretty much a carbon copy of 6z run
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Re: Pouch P17L SW of CV Islands

#145 Postby Ivanhater » Tue Aug 16, 2011 11:41 am

276 hours...approaching my neck of the gulf coast as a nasty hurricane!

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#146 Postby Scorpion » Tue Aug 16, 2011 11:42 am

Pretty much same as last few runs.. pretty remarkable consistency
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Re: Pouch P17L SW of CV Islands

#147 Postby caneseddy » Tue Aug 16, 2011 11:42 am

Ivanhater wrote:276 hours...approaching my neck of the gulf coast as a nasty hurricane!

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Carbon copy of the 6z run but much faster
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Re: Pouch P17L SW of CV Islands

#148 Postby Ivanhater » Tue Aug 16, 2011 11:42 am

300 hours...New Orleans!

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Re: Pouch P17L SSW of CV Islands

#149 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Aug 16, 2011 11:43 am

TreasureIslandFLGal wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


Anyone else notice the last few days of model runs.... there is a remarkable agreement from the GFS, Euro, and a few others.. but the big boys the GFS and EURO over the last few days ( nearly 6 runs of euro and 12 of GFS) have tracked basically within the black cone. I cant recall ( especially this season) when they have been in such good agreement over so many runs. The other oddity is the rather timid GFS has a strong hurricane also in line with the euro. It is rather far out but the deviation is really quite small considering the two models typically dont like to agree... so you cant just pass that off... So if we do get development before the islands I would put a little money on a track somewhere in the cone. which is saying a lot being that the cone is rather narrow and the system is no where near developing yet.

Image


Such a path could be a big storm producer, yet the CONUS may not have to deal with such a monster if it rakes over Hispanola or a big swath of Cuba first. However, this looks scary for someone regardless.
I suspect that the front will assist in lifting this north, but then pull out with the atlantic ridge building westward to close off the escape route to the recurve scenario and force it back to the west.


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Add another GFS run to the growing consistency....
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#150 Postby rockyman » Tue Aug 16, 2011 11:45 am

Look at the date for that GFS New Orleans hit: Monday, August 29th (hopefully this will NOT be the K storm in 2011)
Last edited by rockyman on Tue Aug 16, 2011 11:46 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#151 Postby Vortex » Tue Aug 16, 2011 11:45 am

GFS certainly seems to have locked in a high risk area run to run...something to monitor closely...
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Re: Pouch P17L SW of CV Islands

#152 Postby SFLcane » Tue Aug 16, 2011 11:47 am

Aric you should keep the cone handy to see if future runs of the GFS and ECM stay inside your cone.
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Re: Pouch P17L SW of CV Islands

#153 Postby Blown Away » Tue Aug 16, 2011 11:47 am

The consistency is a building ridge as this system appraoches the SE Bahama area. Let's hope that doesn't happen, Windward Islands, PR, DR, Bahamas, SFL, and Panhandle get a strike!!! Yikes!
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Re: Pouch P17L SW of CV Islands

#154 Postby Ivanhater » Tue Aug 16, 2011 11:50 am

This one looks nasty folks....Both the GFS and Euro showing a building high as it approaches South Florida/Gulf coast. Let's hope models swing away but the consistency is concerning.
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Re: Pouch P17L SW of CV Islands

#155 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Aug 16, 2011 11:50 am

Blown Away wrote:The consistency is a building ridge as this system appraoches the SE Bahama area. Let's hope that doesn't happen, Windward Islands, PR, DR, Bahamas, SFL, and Panhandle get a strike!!! Yikes!

this run is similar to georges

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Re: Pouch P17L SW of CV Islands

#156 Postby PTrackerLA » Tue Aug 16, 2011 11:54 am

Oh the drama you GFS! Another year another system plowing through Miami and New Orleans :double: :lol: .
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Re: Pouch P17L SW of CV Islands

#157 Postby SFLcane » Tue Aug 16, 2011 11:57 am

Ahh...

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Re: Pouch P17L SW of CV Islands

#158 Postby Ivanhater » Tue Aug 16, 2011 11:58 am

BTW...here is last night's Canadian...240 hours. Approaching South Carolina

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Re: Pouch P17L SW of CV Islands

#159 Postby ConvergenceZone » Tue Aug 16, 2011 12:00 pm

PTrackerLA wrote:Oh the drama you GFS! Another year another system plowing through Miami and New Orleans :double: :lol: .


The thing is, I hate to say it, but the US is overdue for a major hurricane to hit. Our incredibly good luck lately can only sustain itself for so long, and because of our long drys pell avoiding a major, I would be absolutely SHOCKED if a major doesn't impact the US this year.
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Re: Pouch P17L SW of CV Islands

#160 Postby Ivanhater » Tue Aug 16, 2011 12:01 pm

12z Canadian 144 hours...approaching Hispaniola. The model consistency at this range is amazing!

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