Pouch P17L in Eastern Atlantic -(Now Invest 97L)

[caneseddy]

192 hours, intensifying in the Southern Bahamas moving WNW

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... cal192.gif

[Ivanhater]

240 approaching Florida Keys....ridge building

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... cal240.gif

[caneseddy]

At 228 hours, really bombs it out heading towards S. Florida

At 240 hours, major hurricane hit on South Florida

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... cal240.gif

[caneseddy]

heading towards Pensacola again...pretty much a carbon copy of 6z run

[Ivanhater]

276 hours...approaching my neck of the gulf coast as a nasty hurricane!



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[Scorpion]

Pretty much same as last few runs.. pretty remarkable consistency

[caneseddy]

276 hours...approaching my neck of the gulf coast as a nasty hurricane!



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Carbon copy of the 6z run but much faster

[Ivanhater]

300 hours...New Orleans!



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[Aric Dunn]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


Anyone else notice the last few days of model runs.... there is a remarkable agreement from the GFS, Euro, and a few others.. but the big boys the GFS and EURO over the last few days ( nearly 6 runs of euro and 12 of GFS) have tracked basically within the black cone. I cant recall ( especially this season) when they have been in such good agreement over so many runs. The other oddity is the rather timid GFS has a strong hurricane also in line with the euro. It is rather far out but the deviation is really quite small considering the two models typically dont like to agree... so you cant just pass that off... So if we do get development before the islands I would put a little money on a track somewhere in the cone. which is saying a lot being that the cone is rather narrow and the system is no where near developing yet.

Such a path could be a big storm producer, yet the CONUS may not have to deal with such a monster if it rakes over Hispanola or a big swath of Cuba first. However, this looks scary for someone regardless.
I suspect that the front will assist in lifting this north, but then pull out with the atlantic ridge building westward to close off the escape route to the recurve scenario and force it back to the west.


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Add another GFS run to the growing consistency....

[rockyman]

Look at the date for that GFS New Orleans hit: Monday, August 29th (hopefully this will NOT be the K storm in 2011)

[Vortex]

GFS certainly seems to have locked in a high risk area run to run...something to monitor closely...

[SFLcane]

Aric you should keep the cone handy to see if future runs of the GFS and ECM stay inside your cone.

[Blown Away]

The consistency is a building ridge as this system appraoches the SE Bahama area. Let's hope that doesn't happen, Windward Islands, PR, DR, Bahamas, SFL, and Panhandle get a strike!!! Yikes!

[Ivanhater]

This one looks nasty folks....Both the GFS and Euro showing a building high as it approaches South Florida/Gulf coast. Let's hope models swing away but the consistency is concerning.

[Aric Dunn]

The consistency is a building ridge as this system appraoches the SE Bahama area. Let's hope that doesn't happen, Windward Islands, PR, DR, Bahamas, SFL, and Panhandle get a strike!!! Yikes!

this run is similar to georges

[PTrackerLA]

Oh the drama you GFS! Another year another system plowing through Miami and New Orleans .

[SFLcane]

Ahh...

[Ivanhater]

BTW...here is last night's Canadian...240 hours. Approaching South Carolina

[ConvergenceZone]

Oh the drama you GFS! Another year another system plowing through Miami and New Orleans .

The thing is, I hate to say it, but the US is overdue for a major hurricane to hit. Our incredibly good luck lately can only sustain itself for so long, and because of our long drys pell avoiding a major, I would be absolutely SHOCKED if a major doesn't impact the US this year.

[Ivanhater]

12z Canadian 144 hours...approaching Hispaniola. The model consistency at this range is amazing!