Pouch P17L in Eastern Atlantic -(Now Invest 97L)

[Rgv20]

If it develops its a safe bet it wont be a small system.

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Here is the 12z FIM model.

Michael,

Was the last run you posted in anyway trying to reply to my question about the western extent of the high? And it going accross the middle or lower keys.

[blp]

Does anyone have the 12z CMC long range? I did not see it today. Thanks

[Blown Away]

Starting to take on "the look"


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/rb-l.jpg

Catastrophic global model landfalls, 10% development, nice cyclonic spin, limited but persistent convection, and heavy Storm2k activity, what's it take to get an invest tag? Geeez!!!

[Ivanhater]

Here is the 12z FIM model.

Michael,

Was the last run you posted in anyway trying to reply to my question about the western extent of the high? And it going accross the middle or lower keys.

The ridge placement in the image you are talking about looks worrisome for South Florida.

[Ivanhater]

Does anyone have the 12z CMC long range? I did not see it today. Thanks

Here ya go

[Rgv20]

Took a closer look at the long range GFS&Euro Ensembles and the Operational 12zECMWF favors a more westward track, its ensembles favor a track just east of Florida. It seems the GFS ensembles are split regarding the track with most showing a track closer toward south florida and a few out in the central GOM.

12zECMWF Ensembles valid for Saturday August 27. As you can see represented by the dark purple shadings almost all of the ensembles members are well east with their track than the operational run.


12zGFS Ensembles valid for Saturday August 27. The potential tracks are closer to south florida with a few of them in the Central GOM.

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Here is the 12z FIM model.

Michael,

Was the last run you posted in anyway trying to reply to my question about the western extent of the high? And it going accross the middle or lower keys.

The ridge placement in the image you are talking about looks worrisome for South Florida.

Thank you for the reply, guess i was assuming based on how I read the bars that it extended accrosses the middle keys which would maybe allow it to get further west. Based on your response south mia and south florida not looking good.

[Vortex]

Nice look here...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/flash-ir2.html

[lonelymike]

Thanks RG and Michael for taking the time to post all the runs 10 days out so plenty of time to watch....and pray

[blp]

Does anyone have the 12z CMC long range? I did not see it today. Thanks

Here ya go

Thanks, do you have the grayscale maps that go out to 240hr.

[gatorcane]

Looking like this will be an invest later on tonight.....convection on the increase somewhat and structure looking better.

[blp]

18z HWRF on 93L picking up on our system south of Hispaniola.

[gatorcane]

DGEX model 18z shows it approaching SE Florida at 192 hours. Needless to say that is a long way out thankfully.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mmbpll/dgexops.conus

[lonelymike]

18z HWRF on 93L picking up on our system south of Hispaniola.

For entertainment purposes only

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Gator,

What is the DGEX model is it run off of another model using similar data.

[gatorcane]

Gator,

What is the DGEX model is it run off of another model using similar data.

Website states:

"These are plots of the 84-192 h forecasts from the Downscaled GFS by NAM Extension (DGEX) and the operational GFS."

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Thank you,

for clarifying that seems most models keep it on a general track this way.

[cycloneye]

ASCAT pass made at 8 PM EDT. It missed part of the circulation,but still you can see how the arrow directions are.

[stormhunter7]

up to 2009 and all the models that were used up until then... Enjoy

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pdf/model_summary_20090724.pdf