ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

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KWT
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#121 Postby KWT » Thu Aug 18, 2011 11:58 am

AdamFirst wrote:I haven't seen the hype machine crank up so readily for an invest like this.

Why the special attention?


Because the models (espeically the GFS) has been both agressive and consistant with it...

I also think its partly because this is the first real geniune threat to the US as well this season.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#122 Postby cycloneye » Thu Aug 18, 2011 12:35 pm

2 PM TWO:

A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED NEARLY MIDWAY BETWEEN THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS AND THE LESSER ANTILLES CONTINUES TO PRODUCE LIMITED SHOWER
ACTIVITY. SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT IS NOT LIKELY DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS COULD BECOME
MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AFTER THAT TIME. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 MPH.
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#123 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Aug 18, 2011 12:36 pm

Well on a side note.. the FNMOC has finally decided to develop it.. lol
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#124 Postby KWT » Thu Aug 18, 2011 12:49 pm

Well more or less the same idea from the NHC Cycloneye which sounds reasonable, not much chance before 48hrs is up, but chances increase from then on, esp past 72hrs.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#125 Postby HurricaneMaster_PR » Thu Aug 18, 2011 12:52 pm

Latest TAFB Surface Forecast (72 hrs)
Image
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#126 Postby KWT » Thu Aug 18, 2011 12:54 pm

Interesting track, that forecast takes it a touch WSW into PR and towards Hispaniola.

Track first 72hrs looks like 00z ECM...
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Re:

#127 Postby northjaxpro » Thu Aug 18, 2011 1:01 pm

KWT wrote:Interesting track, that forecast takes it a touch WSW into PR and towards Hispaniola.

Track first 72hrs looks like 00z ECM...



This may very well be a situation where 50-100 miles deviation in track could make all the difference in terms of a potentially strengthening tropical cyclone or one that interacts with the islands. This is going to be interesting to monitor in a few days to see how this shakes down.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#128 Postby HurricaneMaster_PR » Thu Aug 18, 2011 1:30 pm

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
18/1745 UTC 12.9N 40.1W TOO WEAK 97L
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#129 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Aug 18, 2011 1:32 pm

Did it get classified as an invest early enough for the 12z runs of the hurricane models.. ?
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#130 Postby northtxboy » Thu Aug 18, 2011 1:39 pm

Look at all the people online now!!! This might get alittle crazy :eek:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#131 Postby weatherguy2 » Thu Aug 18, 2011 1:50 pm

New NHC grid forecast for the morning of AUG 24th, it's at the south tip of Cuba:
Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#132 Postby cycloneye » Thu Aug 18, 2011 1:57 pm

18z Best Track

AL, 97, 2011081818, , BEST, 0, 136N, 394W, 25, 1008, DB
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#133 Postby KWT » Thu Aug 18, 2011 2:22 pm

Looks like its over Cuba to me weatherguy2. Would be a hard call to find out where it goes from there, either westwards into the Caribbean or into the Bahamas region.
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#134 Postby Vortex » Thu Aug 18, 2011 2:34 pm

NWS Miami afternoon update:

Rarely do they mention anyting 7 days out...Consevative at best. Obviouly, they see what we see..


Snipet:

EXTENDED PERIOD...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE OVER S FLA THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH CLIMO POPS. NOCTURNAL E COAST
AND DIURNAL INTERIOR AND W CONVECTION EXPECTED. THE LONG RANGE MODELS
LINING UP AND AGREEING THAT A DEVELOPING TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHES
THE AREA LATE NEXT WEEK. AT THIS TIME...LOADING ECMWF WINDS AND
LEAVING WEATHER AS IS PENDING ADDITIONAL GUIDANCE/DEVELOPMENT.
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#135 Postby HUC » Thu Aug 18, 2011 2:35 pm

I should said the real center appears to organised around 12N - 40,5Wwhere a small cluster just begining...Let's see
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#136 Postby HUC » Thu Aug 18, 2011 2:38 pm

That's the loop from EWALL psu

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SATA ... m8vis.html
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#137 Postby Hurricaneman » Thu Aug 18, 2011 2:40 pm

I see the possible center at 14.1n 38.2w

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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#138 Postby wxman57 » Thu Aug 18, 2011 2:43 pm

Look farther west - 14N/41.3W.
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#139 Postby Vortex » Thu Aug 18, 2011 2:43 pm

Buoy not to far from estimated center...

14.9/38W

Air Temperature (ATMP): 81.0 °F
Water Temperature (WTMP): 80.6 °F
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.81 in
Wind Speed (WSPD): 13.0 kts
Wind Direction (WDIR): E (100 deg)
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#140 Postby HurricaneWarning92 » Thu Aug 18, 2011 2:43 pm

yep i see it there too...
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