ATL: IRENE - Models

[HURRICANELONNY]

Let me get this straight. We don't have a name or a depression. To say the least much convection. Not only could it not form but who the heck would know where it would or could go???

[South Texas Storms]

I'd hate the destruction that that a hurricane of this alleged size can cause but it might be an answer to a lot of prayers for the drought striken folks in Tx.

I feel the same way man. It would be a blessing and a curse. I think it would be more of a blessing. That is how bad our drought is right now...

[gatorcane]

I agree with that Wxman57, the GFS is notorious for breaking down ridges in the long-range too quickly...and we are talking over 8+ days before it even would reach the GOM. Forecasting skills for these global modesl is quite low beyond 6 days for that matter. 276 hours into Houston? Chances are the GFS will flip-flop again. 276 hours is an eternity.

But that is the key: it has to develop first and right now not looking that good at all......

[Kory]

The GFS has been predicting the ridge over Texas to break down in 10 days for the past month. It's always 10 days or so down the road. Is it right this time? Probably not. Much will depend on if and when the disturbance ever develops.

This is exactly what I've been asking for the last several days. I understand the excitement of a potential storm, but this ridge has been a beast and very dominant. What has suddenly changed to have it leave this quickly?

When you have such an intense storm that the models are predicting, the slightest weakness in the ridge would open the door to the Gulf Coast. That is what we are seeing being shown by the GFS and Euro. It is showing the ridge moving just far enough westward, that it would open up the Gulf for action. Still much to far out to pin point an exact location of landfall and much will change...

[weatherwindow]

luis.....any ideas on when we will see the GFDL/HWRF?.....rich

[Vortex]

Well the 18z totally destroys the previous GFS runs show and shifts well west.

Had a feeling we were about to see a westward trend from the 18z GFS...

Its always wierd whenthe GFS is west of the ECM...but they both have shifted to the central Gulf...

We will have to see what the 00z suite shows.

Flip flopping may continue, bottom line and most important to take from Guidance is the odds are going up consiberably for a Hurricane strike and possible a severe one for the US....Anyone along the Gulf coast, FL, and carolinas needs to pay very close attention. IMO, I think a keys/SFL possible hit then into the Gulf for a 2nd landfall is reasonable at this point...

[ROCK]

Ridges break down....some people think this is going to stick around until Dec....

Just because it been stuck here for the past 3 mo doesn't mean it will stick around another 10. Days....think this is my 5th time to say this.....

[Ivanhater]

We will see..it does look to turn north in the Gulf somewhere. There is a pronounced weakness on both the GFS and Euro upper air charts just depends on how far west it gets before turning imo.

[SoupBone]

Ridges break down....some people this is going to stick around until Dec....

Just because it been stuck here for the past 3 mo doesn't mean it will stick around another 10. Days....think is my 5th time to say this.....

I understand this and I appreciate both you and Kory's responses. However, like Wxman has said, the GFS has been predicting the ridge to breakdown. This started prior to 93L right? If this is true, and we know the ridge hasn't eroded yet, then why all of sudden is now the time to think it will happen?

Kory's explanation made sense to me. If this is an intense storm and there is even a small weakness, i now understand it's heading to that section. Thanks guys.

[KWT]

The models may well be overdoing any weakening of the upper high, who knows...

Nowhere should switch off from this, its still another 4-5 days from Hispaniola!

[ROCK]

Ridges break down....some people this is going to stick around until Dec....

Just because it been stuck here for the past 3 mo doesn't mean it will stick around another 10. Days....think is my 5th time to say this.....

I understand this and I appreciate both you and Kory's responses. However, like Wxman has said, the GFS has been predicting the ridge to breakdown. This started prior to since 93L right? If this is true, and we know the ridge hasn't eroded yet, then why all of sudden is now the time to think it will happen?

Kory's explanation made sense to me. If this is an intense storm and there is even a small weakness, i now understand it's heading to that section. Thanks guys.

Dude are you even looking at guidance? Both the Euro and now GFS open the GOM more than what it was a few runs ago, this stinking ridge retreats per guidance...what are u saying? never mind...this flippin IPhone sucks for looking at posts.... I could careless about the cane...its more this ridge I want gone...

[OuterBanker]

Like I thought, it has now narrowed down between Houston and Hailfax.

[jasons2k]

With hot summers like this and the death ridge in place over Texas, we have a six week mini-season running from about 8/20 through the end of September. It's the time of year to start watching for the ridge to either get displaced or split.

[Ivanhater]

18z GFS Ensembles show SE Louisana and heading north

[SoupBone]

Ridges break down....some people this is going to stick around until Dec....

Just because it been stuck here for the past 3 mo doesn't mean it will stick around another 10. Days....think is my 5th time to say this.....

I understand this and I appreciate both you and Kory's responses. However, like Wxman has said, the GFS has been predicting the ridge to breakdown. This started prior to since 93L right? If this is true, and we know the ridge hasn't eroded yet, then why all of sudden is now the time to think it will happen?

Kory's explanation made sense to me. If this is an intense storm and there is even a small weakness, i now understand it's heading to that section. Thanks guys.

Dude are you even looking at guidance? Both the Euro and now GFS open the GOM more than what it was a few runs ago, this stinking ridge retreats per guidance...what are u saying?

I was very clear in my questions and don't appreciate the tone of your responses honestly. I'm not asking some off the wall or ridiculous question. How long has the GFS been breaking this ridge down? Didn't it try this for 93L as well?

Thank you as well jasons, this is the type of answer I've been looking for. I simply don't recall a season where we've had such a dominant persistant ridge like this and I'm curious how or what is going to move it.

[Ivanhater]

Settle down everyone. Remember everyone be respectful. We have a long way to go with this one...

[ROCK]

I understand this and I appreciate both you and Kory's responses. However, like Wxman has said, the GFS has been predicting the ridge to breakdown. This started prior to since 93L right? If this is true, and we know the ridge hasn't eroded yet, then why all of sudden is now the time to think it will happen?

Kory's explanation made sense to me. If this is an intense storm and there is even a small weakness, i now understand it's heading to that section. Thanks guys.[/quote]


Dude are you even looking at guidance? Both the Euro and now GFS open the GOM more than what it was a few runs ago, this stinking ridge retreats per guidance...what are u saying?[/quote]

Thank you as well jasons, this is the type of answer I've been looking for. I simply don't recall a season where we've had such a dominant persistant ridge like this and I'm curious how or what is going to move it.[/quote]


read my edit

[Tireman4]

Ihank you as well jasons, this is the type of answer I've been looking for. I simply don't recall a season where we've had such a dominant persistant ridge like this and I'm curious how or what is going to move it.[/quote]

Front..a strong front...or it wants to move on its own...LOL




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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[pgoss11]

Too many variables this early in the game to say where this "potential storm" will be going. It's a safe bet this is going to hit land somewhere if it forms. Still a lot of "ifs" though. Should be a fun week coming up!!

[cycloneye]

00z Tropical Models.

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KWBC 190032
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0032 UTC FRI AUG 19 2011
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL972011) 20110819 0000 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        110819  0000   110819  1200   110820  0000   110820  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    13.6N  41.4W   14.2N  44.6W   15.3N  48.3W   16.5N  52.4W
BAMD    13.6N  41.4W   14.4N  44.7W   15.4N  48.1W   16.4N  51.7W
BAMM    13.6N  41.4W   14.3N  44.7W   15.5N  48.6W   16.6N  52.7W
LBAR    13.6N  41.4W   14.2N  44.6W   15.2N  48.0W   16.1N  51.5W
SHIP        25KTS          28KTS          33KTS          42KTS
DSHP        25KTS          28KTS          33KTS          42KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        110821  0000   110822  0000   110823  0000   110824  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    17.8N  56.7W   20.1N  64.8W   21.4N  72.2W   21.4N  78.3W
BAMD    17.4N  55.1W   19.3N  61.0W   20.9N  65.3W   22.7N  68.7W
BAMM    17.8N  56.8W   19.7N  64.5W   20.3N  71.4W   19.7N  76.4W
LBAR    17.1N  54.8W   18.6N  61.3W   21.0N  65.6W   20.2N  60.7W
SHIP        53KTS          74KTS          86KTS          88KTS
DSHP        53KTS          74KTS          86KTS          74KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  13.6N LONCUR =  41.4W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR =  15KT
LATM12 =  13.5N LONM12 =  38.4W DIRM12 = 276DEG SPDM12 =  16KT
LATM24 =  13.2N LONM24 =  35.6W
WNDCUR =   25KT RMAXWD =  120NM WNDM12 =   25KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD =  240NM SDEPTH =   S
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM