
ATL: IRENE - Models
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L-Models
Let me get this straight. We don't have a name or a depression. To say the least much convection. Not only could it not form but who the heck would know where it would or could go??? 

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hurricanelonny
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Re:
lonelymike wrote:I'd hate the destruction that that a hurricane of this allegedsize can cause but it might be an answer to a lot of prayers for the drought striken folks in Tx.
I feel the same way man. It would be a blessing and a curse. I think it would be more of a blessing. That is how bad our drought is right now...
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- gatorcane
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I agree with that Wxman57, the GFS is notorious for breaking down ridges in the long-range too quickly...and we are talking over 8+ days before it even would reach the GOM. Forecasting skills for these global modesl is quite low beyond 6 days for that matter. 276 hours into Houston? Chances are the GFS will flip-flop again. 276 hours is an eternity.
But that is the key: it has to develop first and right now not looking that good at all......
But that is the key: it has to develop first and right now not looking that good at all......
Last edited by gatorcane on Thu Aug 18, 2011 6:43 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L-Models
SoupBone wrote:wxman57 wrote:The GFS has been predicting the ridge over Texas to break down in 10 days for the past month. It's always 10 days or so down the road. Is it right this time? Probably not. Much will depend on if and when the disturbance ever develops.
This is exactly what I've been asking for the last several days. I understand the excitement of a potential storm, but this ridge has been a beast and very dominant. What has suddenly changed to have it leave this quickly?
When you have such an intense storm that the models are predicting, the slightest weakness in the ridge would open the door to the Gulf Coast. That is what we are seeing being shown by the GFS and Euro. It is showing the ridge moving just far enough westward, that it would open up the Gulf for action. Still much to far out to pin point an exact location of landfall and much will change...
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- weatherwindow
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Re:
KWT wrote:Well the 18z totally destroys the previous GFS runs show and shifts well west.
Had a feeling we were about to see a westward trend from the 18z GFS...
Its always wierd whenthe GFS is west of the ECM...but they both have shifted to the central Gulf...
We will have to see what the 00z suite shows.
Flip flopping may continue, bottom line and most important to take from Guidance is the odds are going up consiberably for a Hurricane strike and possible a severe one for the US....Anyone along the Gulf coast, FL, and carolinas needs to pay very close attention. IMO, I think a keys/SFL possible hit then into the Gulf for a 2nd landfall is reasonable at this point...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L-Models
Ridges break down....some people think this is going to stick around until Dec....
Just because it been stuck here for the past 3 mo doesn't mean it will stick around another 10. Days....think this is my 5th time to say this.....

Just because it been stuck here for the past 3 mo doesn't mean it will stick around another 10. Days....think this is my 5th time to say this.....
Last edited by ROCK on Thu Aug 18, 2011 6:53 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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- Ivanhater
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L-Models
We will see..it does look to turn north in the Gulf somewhere. There is a pronounced weakness on both the GFS and Euro upper air charts just depends on how far west it gets before turning imo.
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Michael
Re: ATL: INVEST 97L-Models
ROCK wrote:Ridges break down....some people this is going to stick around until Dec....
Just because it been stuck here for the past 3 mo doesn't mean it will stick around another 10. Days....think is my 5th time to say this.....
I understand this and I appreciate both you and Kory's responses. However, like Wxman has said, the GFS has been predicting the ridge to breakdown. This started prior to 93L right? If this is true, and we know the ridge hasn't eroded yet, then why all of sudden is now the time to think it will happen?
Kory's explanation made sense to me. If this is an intense storm and there is even a small weakness, i now understand it's heading to that section. Thanks guys.
Last edited by SoupBone on Thu Aug 18, 2011 6:55 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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The models may well be overdoing any weakening of the upper high, who knows...
Nowhere should switch off from this, its still another 4-5 days from Hispaniola!
Nowhere should switch off from this, its still another 4-5 days from Hispaniola!
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
Re: ATL: INVEST 97L-Models
SoupBone wrote:ROCK wrote:Ridges break down....some people this is going to stick around until Dec....
Just because it been stuck here for the past 3 mo doesn't mean it will stick around another 10. Days....think is my 5th time to say this.....
I understand this and I appreciate both you and Kory's responses. However, like Wxman has said, the GFS has been predicting the ridge to breakdown. This started prior to since 93L right? If this is true, and we know the ridge hasn't eroded yet, then why all of sudden is now the time to think it will happen?
Kory's explanation made sense to me. If this is an intense storm and there is even a small weakness, i now understand it's heading to that section. Thanks guys.
Dude are you even looking at guidance? Both the Euro and now GFS open the GOM more than what it was a few runs ago, this stinking ridge retreats per guidance...what are u saying? never mind...this flippin IPhone sucks for looking at posts....

Last edited by ROCK on Thu Aug 18, 2011 7:07 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L-Models
Like I thought, it has now narrowed down between Houston and Hailfax.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L-Models
ROCK wrote:SoupBone wrote:ROCK wrote:Ridges break down....some people this is going to stick around until Dec....
Just because it been stuck here for the past 3 mo doesn't mean it will stick around another 10. Days....think is my 5th time to say this.....
I understand this and I appreciate both you and Kory's responses. However, like Wxman has said, the GFS has been predicting the ridge to breakdown. This started prior to since 93L right? If this is true, and we know the ridge hasn't eroded yet, then why all of sudden is now the time to think it will happen?
Kory's explanation made sense to me. If this is an intense storm and there is even a small weakness, i now understand it's heading to that section. Thanks guys.
Dude are you even looking at guidance? Both the Euro and now GFS open the GOM more than what it was a few runs ago, this stinking ridge retreats per guidance...what are u saying?
I was very clear in my questions and don't appreciate the tone of your responses honestly. I'm not asking some off the wall or ridiculous question. How long has the GFS been breaking this ridge down? Didn't it try this for 93L as well?
Thank you as well jasons, this is the type of answer I've been looking for. I simply don't recall a season where we've had such a dominant persistant ridge like this and I'm curious how or what is going to move it.
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- Ivanhater
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L-Models
Settle down everyone. Remember everyone be respectful. We have a long way to go with this one...
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Michael
Re: ATL: INVEST 97L-Models
I understand this and I appreciate both you and Kory's responses. However, like Wxman has said, the GFS has been predicting the ridge to breakdown. This started prior to since 93L right? If this is true, and we know the ridge hasn't eroded yet, then why all of sudden is now the time to think it will happen?
Kory's explanation made sense to me. If this is an intense storm and there is even a small weakness, i now understand it's heading to that section. Thanks guys.[/quote]
Dude are you even looking at guidance? Both the Euro and now GFS open the GOM more than what it was a few runs ago, this stinking ridge retreats per guidance...what are u saying?[/quote]
Thank you as well jasons, this is the type of answer I've been looking for. I simply don't recall a season where we've had such a dominant persistant ridge like this and I'm curious how or what is going to move it.[/quote]
read my edit
Kory's explanation made sense to me. If this is an intense storm and there is even a small weakness, i now understand it's heading to that section. Thanks guys.[/quote]
Dude are you even looking at guidance? Both the Euro and now GFS open the GOM more than what it was a few runs ago, this stinking ridge retreats per guidance...what are u saying?[/quote]
Thank you as well jasons, this is the type of answer I've been looking for. I simply don't recall a season where we've had such a dominant persistant ridge like this and I'm curious how or what is going to move it.[/quote]
read my edit
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- Tireman4
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L-Models
Ihank you as well jasons, this is the type of answer I've been looking for. I simply don't recall a season where we've had such a dominant persistant ridge like this and I'm curious how or what is going to move it.[/quote]
Front..a strong front...or it wants to move on its own...LOL
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Front..a strong front...or it wants to move on its own...LOL
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L-Models
Too many variables this early in the game to say where this "potential storm" will be going. It's a safe bet this is going to hit land somewhere if it forms. Still a lot of "ifs" though. Should be a fun week coming up!!
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- cycloneye
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L-Models
00z Tropical Models.
Code: Select all
WHXX01 KWBC 190032
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0032 UTC FRI AUG 19 2011
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL972011) 20110819 0000 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
110819 0000 110819 1200 110820 0000 110820 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 13.6N 41.4W 14.2N 44.6W 15.3N 48.3W 16.5N 52.4W
BAMD 13.6N 41.4W 14.4N 44.7W 15.4N 48.1W 16.4N 51.7W
BAMM 13.6N 41.4W 14.3N 44.7W 15.5N 48.6W 16.6N 52.7W
LBAR 13.6N 41.4W 14.2N 44.6W 15.2N 48.0W 16.1N 51.5W
SHIP 25KTS 28KTS 33KTS 42KTS
DSHP 25KTS 28KTS 33KTS 42KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
110821 0000 110822 0000 110823 0000 110824 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 17.8N 56.7W 20.1N 64.8W 21.4N 72.2W 21.4N 78.3W
BAMD 17.4N 55.1W 19.3N 61.0W 20.9N 65.3W 22.7N 68.7W
BAMM 17.8N 56.8W 19.7N 64.5W 20.3N 71.4W 19.7N 76.4W
LBAR 17.1N 54.8W 18.6N 61.3W 21.0N 65.6W 20.2N 60.7W
SHIP 53KTS 74KTS 86KTS 88KTS
DSHP 53KTS 74KTS 86KTS 74KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 13.6N LONCUR = 41.4W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 15KT
LATM12 = 13.5N LONM12 = 38.4W DIRM12 = 276DEG SPDM12 = 16KT
LATM24 = 13.2N LONM24 = 35.6W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 120NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 240NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
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