ATL: IRENE - Models

[South Texas Storms]

What model has the best history with tracking tropical development ~10 days out? I know none are truly accurate, but is there one that is looked upon with more importance?

The Euro, imo.

[SFLcane]

What model has the best history with tracking tropical development ~10 days out? I know none are truly accurate, but is there one that is looked upon with more importance?

Hmm i'd favor the european. the GFS and ECMWF have been less than sterling with genesis this year and have been developing systems that have not gone on and developed and have not developed systems that went on and did develop.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

I still have a lot of doubts about this. Could never develop until the yucatan like 93L, IF it develops could be destroyed by Hispanola and or cuba, or just turn out to be another weak storm just like all the others so far just this time in the gulf. I am pretty darn close to the middle of the target zone with what models have been showing and am not worried one bit. Have a long time to watch and wait. Only thing that is aggrevating is I have a vacation planned next weekend through the week in Cape San Blas, FL which is about 50 miles se of panama city. Of course when its vacation time SOMETHING MIGHT show up in the gulf when it has been clear all season so far.

[Vortex]

Ivan,

I know you get the long ranger CMC pretty quickly..Any updates yet?

[South Texas Storms]

224hr...I am a little behind....

Ok I'm tired and I need help, which one do I select to get this view?

Western north atlantic. 10m wind and 6-hr precip.

[Blown Away]

Thank you South Texas!!

[WeatherEmperor]

FWIW, here is tonight's 00Z NOGAPS:

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... 00&set=All

Skirts the north coast of Hispanola and brings it extremely close to West Palm Beach.

Please keep in mind that this is just the NOGAPS.....

[Ivanhater]

Ivan,

I know you get the long ranger CMC pretty quickly..Any updates yet?

Still updating up to 120 hour...long range will be out later

[Macrocane]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I know some of you have been saying that the models are bad without a LLC, or that they have failed with the other systems this year, or that they failed woth sustems like Gaston and Fiona last year, but from what I've seen in the last few years I can tell that when the GFS or the Euro are very consistent developing a strong Cape Verde system it usually happens, the track may change but if a strong hurricane is going to develop it's worth watching.

[Ivanhater]

00z Canadian...144 hours...Rapidly intensifying storm between Cuba and Jamaica

[Rgv20]

At 144hrs out the 0zCMC has basically the same track as the 0zGFS. A consensus for a track south of the Islands is starting to emerge but once in the Gulf all bets are off.

0zCMC forecast valid Wednesday evening.

[Ivanhater]

Another view of the GFS

[South Texas Storms]

0z CMC has a SC/Florida hit.

[Ivanhater]

0z CMC has a SC/Florida hit.

I don't think the long range is out yet. Last night's run showed that

[South Texas Storms]

0z CMC has a SC/Florida hit.

I don't think the long range is out yet. Last night's run showed that

I heard it and saw it in the Storm2k chatroom. I'm pretty sure it's tonight's run.

[Ivanhater]

Just checked...you are correct. Everyone still needs to be prepared.

[Hurricaneman]

0z CMC has a SC/Florida hit.

I don't think the long range is out yet. Last night's run showed that

I heard it and saw it in the Storm2k chatroom. I'm pretty sure it's tonight's run.

This might be a case of dont always believe what you hear

p.s. I was wrong the chatroom was right, looks like it crosses Florida into South Carolina

[SoupBone]

0z CMC has a SC/Florida hit.

Well that's interesting for sure.

[lonelymike]

GFS ensembles are all over the place. Looks like the initialized a bit south....still it is the GFS 10 days out

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

EURO rolling in