ATL: IRENE - Models

[northjaxpro]

Ivanhater and Wxman57, the latest EURO runs are trending back east reflecting the strength of the trough coming down the East Coast late next week correct?

Earlier runs had it near Pensacola.

[PTrackerLA]

I guess that's considered a west shift in the Euro whereas the 00z was close to staying offshore the US completely.

[Ivanhater]

Actually between 192 hour to 240 hours...the ridge pushes it NW

[northjaxpro]

Interesting to see what happens with the trough the latter half of next week. It is possible the trough could lift out , and have a similar situation to Elena in '85, where the trough left her behind and meandered around for nearly two days until the ridge forced her back west/northwest to the panhandle. Hope that doesn't happen.

[rockyman]

The 12z GFS, Euro, and CMC are in general agreement that the system will be south of eastern Cuba in 5 days. From there, the Euro begins turning sharply northward on Day 5, GFS begins a slower turn northward on Day 6, and CMC implies a gradual turn beginning on Day 7.

[Ivanhater]

Ivanhater and Wxman57, the latest EURO runs are trending back east reflecting the strength of the trough coming down the East Coast late next week correct?

Earlier runs had it near Pensacola.

Last Euro had it run up the east coast so a definite shift west. Canadian and GFS today have shifted west today as well. I do think we are honing in on a Gulf/Florida solution slowly but surely.

[Ivanhater]

BTW//12z Canadian long range...deep in the southern Gulf

[northjaxpro]

Yeah, Ivanhater, it looks like the ridging should be strong enough to push this system westward to at least Eastern or Southeast GOM in about 7 days. After that, all bets are off as to what this system will do or where it is headed.

[OuterBanker]

In the last 24 it's gone from panhandle to NO to Houston to just off Miami back to panhandle. From north of Haiti to south of Haiti to through Haiti.

Can I be excused, my brain is full

[plasticup]

Just remember that this isn't the first monster our models have seen in the Gulf.

[cycloneye]

18z Tropical Models.

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KWBC 191909
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1909 UTC FRI AUG 19 2011
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL972011) 20110819 1800 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        110819  1800   110820  0600   110820  1800   110821  0600
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    13.6N  49.3W   14.0N  52.4W   14.8N  55.6W   15.8N  58.8W
BAMD    13.6N  49.3W   14.2N  52.3W   14.9N  55.3W   15.6N  58.2W
BAMM    13.6N  49.3W   13.9N  52.5W   14.6N  55.8W   15.3N  58.9W
LBAR    13.6N  49.3W   14.0N  52.8W   14.7N  56.3W   15.3N  59.8W
SHIP        25KTS          29KTS          36KTS          45KTS
DSHP        25KTS          29KTS          36KTS          45KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        110821  1800   110822  1800   110823  1800   110824  1800
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    16.9N  62.1W   18.7N  68.7W   20.4N  74.8W   20.7N  80.2W
BAMD    16.4N  61.0W   17.8N  66.0W   19.6N  70.4W   22.0N  74.6W
BAMM    16.2N  62.0W   17.5N  68.0W   18.8N  73.3W   19.8N  77.4W
LBAR    15.9N  63.1W   16.6N  69.2W   17.6N  73.3W     .0N    .0W
SHIP        54KTS          70KTS          77KTS          79KTS
DSHP        54KTS          70KTS          63KTS          65KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  13.6N LONCUR =  49.3W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR =  18KT
LATM12 =  13.4N LONM12 =  45.5W DIRM12 = 273DEG SPDM12 =  19KT
LATM24 =  13.2N LONM24 =  41.3W
WNDCUR =   25KT RMAXWD =   75NM WNDM12 =   25KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD =  175NM SDEPTH =   M
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 


[plasticup]

In the last 24 it's gone from panhandle to NO to Houston to just off Miami back to panhandle. From north of Haiti to south of Haiti to through Haiti.

Can I be excused, my brain is full

But in every scenario, the intensity has been beastly...

[weatherguy2]

New 12z UKMET passes right between Cuba and Jamaica:

[Aric Dunn]

better Euro page.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMW ... floop.html

[Blown Away]

TVCN, BAMD, and Nogaps say Florida.

[KatDaddy]

Models are just models and long range hours are to dramatic to follow. Many years of going crazy watching the long range models.

[caneseddy]

better Euro page.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMW ... floop.html

Wow...if that were to verify, that could be a disaster for almost all of Florida..pretty much rides the west coast all the way until Georgia...of course, IF it develops after Hispaniola

It means something if the Euro keeps intensifying this storm after going through the Hispaniola and Cuba and emerges into the Straits run after run

[Ivanhater]

better Euro page.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMW ... floop.html

Notice the push NW into the Panhandle into Central Georgia between 192 and 240 hours as the ridge still pushes on her...very similar to the 12z GFS just a bit east.

[Ivanhater]

Models are just models and long range hours are to dramatic to follow. Many years of going crazy watching the long range models.

Important point. It is important to remember we are just analyzing these PARTICULAR model runs. Does not mean that is what is going occur.

[Ivanhater]

12z GFS Ensemble mean...potent system in the central Gulf