ATL: IRENE - Models
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- northjaxpro
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Ivanhater and Wxman57, the latest EURO runs are trending back east reflecting the strength of the trough coming down the East Coast late next week correct?
Earlier runs had it near Pensacola.
Earlier runs had it near Pensacola.
Last edited by northjaxpro on Fri Aug 19, 2011 2:00 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L-Models
I guess that's considered a west shift in the Euro whereas the 00z was close to staying offshore the US completely.
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- Ivanhater
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models
Actually between 192 hour to 240 hours...the ridge pushes it NW
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Michael
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Interesting to see what happens with the trough the latter half of next week. It is possible the trough could lift out , and have a similar situation to Elena in '85, where the trough left her behind and meandered around for nearly two days until the ridge forced her back west/northwest to the panhandle. Hope that doesn't happen.
Last edited by northjaxpro on Fri Aug 19, 2011 2:05 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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The 12z GFS, Euro, and CMC are in general agreement that the system will be south of eastern Cuba in 5 days. From there, the Euro begins turning sharply northward on Day 5, GFS begins a slower turn northward on Day 6, and CMC implies a gradual turn beginning on Day 7.
Last edited by rockyman on Fri Aug 19, 2011 2:06 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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- Ivanhater
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Re:
northjaxpro wrote:Ivanhater and Wxman57, the latest EURO runs are trending back east reflecting the strength of the trough coming down the East Coast late next week correct?
Earlier runs had it near Pensacola.
Last Euro had it run up the east coast so a definite shift west. Canadian and GFS today have shifted west today as well. I do think we are honing in on a Gulf/Florida solution slowly but surely.
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Michael
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models
BTW//12z Canadian long range...deep in the southern Gulf


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Michael
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Yeah, Ivanhater, it looks like the ridging should be strong enough to push this system westward to at least Eastern or Southeast GOM in about 7 days. After that, all bets are off as to what this system will do or where it is headed.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models
Just remember that this isn't the first monster our models have seen in the Gulf.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models
18z Tropical Models.
Code: Select all
WHXX01 KWBC 191909
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1909 UTC FRI AUG 19 2011
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL972011) 20110819 1800 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
110819 1800 110820 0600 110820 1800 110821 0600
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 13.6N 49.3W 14.0N 52.4W 14.8N 55.6W 15.8N 58.8W
BAMD 13.6N 49.3W 14.2N 52.3W 14.9N 55.3W 15.6N 58.2W
BAMM 13.6N 49.3W 13.9N 52.5W 14.6N 55.8W 15.3N 58.9W
LBAR 13.6N 49.3W 14.0N 52.8W 14.7N 56.3W 15.3N 59.8W
SHIP 25KTS 29KTS 36KTS 45KTS
DSHP 25KTS 29KTS 36KTS 45KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
110821 1800 110822 1800 110823 1800 110824 1800
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 16.9N 62.1W 18.7N 68.7W 20.4N 74.8W 20.7N 80.2W
BAMD 16.4N 61.0W 17.8N 66.0W 19.6N 70.4W 22.0N 74.6W
BAMM 16.2N 62.0W 17.5N 68.0W 18.8N 73.3W 19.8N 77.4W
LBAR 15.9N 63.1W 16.6N 69.2W 17.6N 73.3W .0N .0W
SHIP 54KTS 70KTS 77KTS 79KTS
DSHP 54KTS 70KTS 63KTS 65KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 13.6N LONCUR = 49.3W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 18KT
LATM12 = 13.4N LONM12 = 45.5W DIRM12 = 273DEG SPDM12 = 19KT
LATM24 = 13.2N LONM24 = 41.3W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 75NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 175NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models
TVCN, BAMD, and Nogaps say Florida.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models
Models are just models and long range hours are to dramatic to follow. Many years of going crazy watching the long range models.
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Re:
Wow...if that were to verify, that could be a disaster for almost all of Florida..pretty much rides the west coast all the way until Georgia...of course, IF it develops after Hispaniola
It means something if the Euro keeps intensifying this storm after going through the Hispaniola and Cuba and emerges into the Straits run after run
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- Ivanhater
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models
KatDaddy wrote:Models are just models and long range hours are to dramatic to follow. Many years of going crazy watching the long range models.
Important point. It is important to remember we are just analyzing these PARTICULAR model runs. Does not mean that is what is going occur.
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Michael
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models
12z GFS Ensemble mean...potent system in the central Gulf




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