General Consensus?? TD 10 in trouble?
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Forum rules
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.
-
- Tropical Storm
- Posts: 147
- Joined: Sun Jul 20, 2003 10:20 pm
- Location: Montrose, B.C, Canada
- Contact:
General Consensus?? TD 10 in trouble?
First of all, it's great to be back on the board after my 5-day much-needed vacation. Nice to see you all. Secondly, please don't take what I'm about to say as my opinion but just my interpretation of the consensus. If I'm wrong, fine. no problem. I like being wrong.
Now, here are the 3 points I gather people agree on. Granted we have so much time before anything happens
1) TD 10 will likey be dissipated before it gets to the islands- as the models are losing it (models have lost many systems this season and have usually been right). So TD 10 facing a tough road and may dissipate?
2. East Coast threat not likely as 93L or 92l or whatevwr is likely to develop and turn the storm to the north
3. TD 10 not likely to be major hurricane/long tracker?
That's the impression I got. Am I right? So yet again, we have a TD that won't be a long tracker and is going to go poof???? In my poll, East coast also refers to the GOM. By the way, if the models are right and the system does go belly-up and then reforms it will probably only be a weak t.s when it threatens U.S. This storm is only worth following (in my eyes) if it poses a threat as great to U.S as Erika/Claudette? Why are the models losing this system?
Now, here are the 3 points I gather people agree on. Granted we have so much time before anything happens
1) TD 10 will likey be dissipated before it gets to the islands- as the models are losing it (models have lost many systems this season and have usually been right). So TD 10 facing a tough road and may dissipate?
2. East Coast threat not likely as 93L or 92l or whatevwr is likely to develop and turn the storm to the north
3. TD 10 not likely to be major hurricane/long tracker?
That's the impression I got. Am I right? So yet again, we have a TD that won't be a long tracker and is going to go poof???? In my poll, East coast also refers to the GOM. By the way, if the models are right and the system does go belly-up and then reforms it will probably only be a weak t.s when it threatens U.S. This storm is only worth following (in my eyes) if it poses a threat as great to U.S as Erika/Claudette? Why are the models losing this system?
Last edited by rob8303 on Wed Aug 27, 2003 8:38 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 1013
- Joined: Thu Aug 21, 2003 10:25 pm
- Location: NW Jersey
- Contact:
No close call option?????
Well close call is my vote....
I think it will dissipate, just take a look at the shear in its path...
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html
increasing rapidly northeast of the islands....but i have yet to see what longer range predictions are for that....
I also DONT believe 93L will develop, again too much shear right over it, its moving slowly WNW, and i think it will continue this path as the low level stearing winds are primarily WNW . At the same time Fabian will continue WNW, whatever its fate may be, and i think it will be a close call to the east coast.
Well close call is my vote....
I think it will dissipate, just take a look at the shear in its path...
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html
increasing rapidly northeast of the islands....but i have yet to see what longer range predictions are for that....
I also DONT believe 93L will develop, again too much shear right over it, its moving slowly WNW, and i think it will continue this path as the low level stearing winds are primarily WNW . At the same time Fabian will continue WNW, whatever its fate may be, and i think it will be a close call to the east coast.
Last edited by Stormchaser16 on Wed Aug 27, 2003 8:58 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 1013
- Joined: Thu Aug 21, 2003 10:25 pm
- Location: NW Jersey
- Contact:
Well............ i dont think it will turn into much unless that shear decreaes, there is a somewhat healthy wave out there now in the middle of some very very heavy shear and it is holding it self...... i think further down the road there will be problems with Fabian(if it holds together).... but most likely its gonna struggle first
0 likes
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 1013
- Joined: Thu Aug 21, 2003 10:25 pm
- Location: NW Jersey
- Contact:
-
- Tropical Depression
- Posts: 52
- Joined: Fri Jul 11, 2003 7:45 am
- Location: cape cod
Future Fabio
I see this as the biggie of the season. I think the NHC TWO at 5:30
was way too conservative. I think it could be a TS already, a will definitely become a hurricane, probably major.
was way too conservative. I think it could be a TS already, a will definitely become a hurricane, probably major.
0 likes
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 1013
- Joined: Thu Aug 21, 2003 10:25 pm
- Location: NW Jersey
- Contact:
Down the road maybe...... but what is your reasoning for it? First of all most models dissipate it by the time it reaches the islands.... and there is shear out there to keep it in check, so i think it could develop slowly into a hurricane,probably attaining cat.2 or greater once it gets NW of the lesser antilles IMO
0 likes
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 15941
- Age: 57
- Joined: Fri Oct 11, 2002 8:11 am
- Location: Galveston, oh Galveston (And yeah, it's a barrier island. Wanna make something of it?)
- Stormsfury
- Category 5
- Posts: 10549
- Age: 53
- Joined: Wed Feb 05, 2003 6:27 pm
- Location: Summerville, SC
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 1013
- Joined: Thu Aug 21, 2003 10:25 pm
- Location: NW Jersey
- Contact:
- DelStormLover
- Tropical Storm
- Posts: 158
- Joined: Wed Aug 20, 2003 9:59 pm
- Location: South Delaware, USA
- Contact:
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 1013
- Joined: Thu Aug 21, 2003 10:25 pm
- Location: NW Jersey
- Contact:
I don't put a lot of stock in global models regarding tropical systems...particularly the GFS/AVN.
NCEP even puts a disclaimer on their site warning folks that the longer range GFS (beyond 168 hours is very unlikely to be accurate).
What will TD 10 become? There is no way to tell. I watched another Cape Verde TS in 1992 start off strong then get nearly sheared apart northeast of Puerto Rico -- I thought it was toast. That "toast" ended up a 150 kt cat-5 hurricane by the name of Andrew :o :o
This system could indeed get sheared apart--or it could eventually strike the U.S. East or Gulf Coast as a major hurricane.....and anyone that says tonight they know for certain which will occur is a either a liar, a lucky guesser, or they have psychic abilities that I don't.
NCEP even puts a disclaimer on their site warning folks that the longer range GFS (beyond 168 hours is very unlikely to be accurate).
What will TD 10 become? There is no way to tell. I watched another Cape Verde TS in 1992 start off strong then get nearly sheared apart northeast of Puerto Rico -- I thought it was toast. That "toast" ended up a 150 kt cat-5 hurricane by the name of Andrew :o :o
This system could indeed get sheared apart--or it could eventually strike the U.S. East or Gulf Coast as a major hurricane.....and anyone that says tonight they know for certain which will occur is a either a liar, a lucky guesser, or they have psychic abilities that I don't.
0 likes
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 1013
- Joined: Thu Aug 21, 2003 10:25 pm
- Location: NW Jersey
- Contact:
LOL...but isnt everyone that posts a little wishcast forecast always right? like all the little kiddie trolls over at wright weather???????????? DARNIT and i really did think they were all right.......i always listened to them when they said they were right.... bah....
*scratches head* Well, guess i'll have to find something else to read now
*scratches head* Well, guess i'll have to find something else to read now
0 likes
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 1013
- Joined: Thu Aug 21, 2003 10:25 pm
- Location: NW Jersey
- Contact:
To clear up the Donna analog......not many things remain the same, Donna struck florida before it turned north, now is this possible? Yes its possible but not likely with a pretty potent front stalled in that area that would likely turn it away from there first..... setup is different then Donna, nonetheless an east coast threat still remains
0 likes
-
- Tropical Storm
- Posts: 147
- Joined: Sun Jul 20, 2003 10:20 pm
- Location: Montrose, B.C, Canada
- Contact:
Is this completely out to lunch. This guy sounds a bit crazy but could he be right? Don't be fooled by the opening lines. He is NOT a meterologist.
TS SIX DISCO ONE by hurrexpert TROPICAL STORM SIX DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
MWHC/MIDWEST HURRICANE CENTER ST LOUIS MO
11 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2003
Based on images tonight TD 10 hase become the sixth tropical storm of the season. It has great outflow, thunderstorms over the center and a possible CDO forming. Also moist air is around it too and favorable atmospheric conditions. THe parameters are in place for rapid intensification to take place as warm SST lay ahead. Infact SHIPS brings this to a powerful hurricane. Models suggest a more WNW track but towards the end of the forecast period I expect a more west track. With the high ocean heat content ahead of the system rapid intensification could take place after 36 hours. The Eastern Caribbean Islands need to pay close attention as we could have a MAJOR HURRICANE heading for the Islands.
12HR VT 15.1N 35.7W 55 MPH
24HR VT 15.4N 38.5W 65 MPH
36HR VT 16.0N 41.2W 70 MPH
48HR VT 16.2N 44.0W 85 MPH
72HR VT 18.5N 49.0W 100 MPH
96HR VT 19.0N 52.5W 115 MPH
120HR VT 19.5N 56.0W 130 MPH
TS SIX DISCO ONE by hurrexpert TROPICAL STORM SIX DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
MWHC/MIDWEST HURRICANE CENTER ST LOUIS MO
11 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2003
Based on images tonight TD 10 hase become the sixth tropical storm of the season. It has great outflow, thunderstorms over the center and a possible CDO forming. Also moist air is around it too and favorable atmospheric conditions. THe parameters are in place for rapid intensification to take place as warm SST lay ahead. Infact SHIPS brings this to a powerful hurricane. Models suggest a more WNW track but towards the end of the forecast period I expect a more west track. With the high ocean heat content ahead of the system rapid intensification could take place after 36 hours. The Eastern Caribbean Islands need to pay close attention as we could have a MAJOR HURRICANE heading for the Islands.
12HR VT 15.1N 35.7W 55 MPH
24HR VT 15.4N 38.5W 65 MPH
36HR VT 16.0N 41.2W 70 MPH
48HR VT 16.2N 44.0W 85 MPH
72HR VT 18.5N 49.0W 100 MPH
96HR VT 19.0N 52.5W 115 MPH
120HR VT 19.5N 56.0W 130 MPH
0 likes
Now i wonder where Great one came up with this? Thats who this is btw.
And as well i will state like Linda said that this IS and WILL remain a troll free zone! And i do hope this is taken seriously!
As for my thinking on this? It has some potential and thats where i will leave it at for now!
And as well i will state like Linda said that this IS and WILL remain a troll free zone! And i do hope this is taken seriously!
As for my thinking on this? It has some potential and thats where i will leave it at for now!
Last edited by Guest on Thu Aug 28, 2003 1:22 am, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 24 guests