General Consensus?? TD 10 in trouble?

[rob8303]

First of all, it's great to be back on the board after my 5-day much-needed vacation. Nice to see you all. Secondly, please don't take what I'm about to say as my opinion but just my interpretation of the consensus. If I'm wrong, fine. no problem. I like being wrong.
Now, here are the 3 points I gather people agree on. Granted we have so much time before anything happens
1) TD 10 will likey be dissipated before it gets to the islands- as the models are losing it (models have lost many systems this season and have usually been right). So TD 10 facing a tough road and may dissipate?
2. East Coast threat not likely as 93L or 92l or whatevwr is likely to develop and turn the storm to the north
3. TD 10 not likely to be major hurricane/long tracker?

That's the impression I got. Am I right? So yet again, we have a TD that won't be a long tracker and is going to go poof???? In my poll, East coast also refers to the GOM. By the way, if the models are right and the system does go belly-up and then reforms it will probably only be a weak t.s when it threatens U.S. This storm is only worth following (in my eyes) if it poses a threat as great to U.S as Erika/Claudette? Why are the models losing this system?

[Stormchaser16]

No close call option?????

Well close call is my vote....

I think it will dissipate, just take a look at the shear in its path...
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html

increasing rapidly northeast of the islands....but i have yet to see what longer range predictions are for that....
I also DONT believe 93L will develop, again too much shear right over it, its moving slowly WNW, and i think it will continue this path as the low level stearing winds are primarily WNW . At the same time Fabian will continue WNW, whatever its fate may be, and i think it will be a close call to the east coast.

[rob8303]

So stormchaser, in your eyes, TD 10 is another cyclone that will go belly-up? You think TD 10 will share the same fate as all the other TD's except 2?

[Stormchaser16]

Well............ i dont think it will turn into much unless that shear decreaes, there is a somewhat healthy wave out there now in the middle of some very very heavy shear and it is holding it self...... i think further down the road there will be problems with Fabian(if it holds together).... but most likely its gonna struggle first

[Stormchaser16]

Looks like for the most part shear should decrease, but it will still be enough to keep Future Fabian at a limited strength.

[capecodder]

I see this as the biggie of the season. I think the NHC TWO at 5:30
was way too conservative. I think it could be a TS already, a will definitely become a hurricane, probably major.

[Stormchaser16]

Down the road maybe...... but what is your reasoning for it? First of all most models dissipate it by the time it reaches the islands.... and there is shear out there to keep it in check, so i think it could develop slowly into a hurricane,probably attaining cat.2 or greater once it gets NW of the lesser antilles IMO

[GalvestonDuck]

I said strong TS. What do I know? I'm an amateur. I voted just for the sake of voting. Nothing scientific to back up my view. I have a cold right now. I can't think clearly.

[Stormsfury]

The EURO has really latched onto #10 and it really takes off in the day 6-7 timeframe. The Day 10, 3 day average has #10 east of the Bahamas ... too early to call, but it looks to be close (but no, I'm not going out on a limb this far out even if you use the 1947 and 1960 analog years).

SF

[Stormchaser16]

Yea too many variables to call it the "one" coughdonnacough that the analogs show

[DelStormLover]

coughdonnacough

This is what ive been saying since the wave came off of africa!

[Stormchaser16]

So have i

[JetMaxx]

I don't put a lot of stock in global models regarding tropical systems...particularly the GFS/AVN.

NCEP even puts a disclaimer on their site warning folks that the longer range GFS (beyond 168 hours is very unlikely to be accurate).

What will TD 10 become? There is no way to tell. I watched another Cape Verde TS in 1992 start off strong then get nearly sheared apart northeast of Puerto Rico -- I thought it was toast. That "toast" ended up a 150 kt cat-5 hurricane by the name of Andrew :o :o

This system could indeed get sheared apart--or it could eventually strike the U.S. East or Gulf Coast as a major hurricane.....and anyone that says tonight they know for certain which will occur is a either a liar, a lucky guesser, or they have psychic abilities that I don't.

[Stormchaser16]

LOL...but isnt everyone that posts a little wishcast forecast always right? like all the little kiddie trolls over at wright weather???????????? DARNIT and i really did think they were all right.......i always listened to them when they said they were right.... bah....

*scratches head* Well, guess i'll have to find something else to read now

[Lindaloo]

There are no people I disagree with at Storm2k.

There are no kiddie trolls here either.

[Stormchaser16]

To clear up the Donna analog......not many things remain the same, Donna struck florida before it turned north, now is this possible? Yes its possible but not likely with a pretty potent front stalled in that area that would likely turn it away from there first..... setup is different then Donna, nonetheless an east coast threat still remains

[rob8303]

Is this completely out to lunch. This guy sounds a bit crazy but could he be right? Don't be fooled by the opening lines. He is NOT a meterologist.

TS SIX DISCO ONE by hurrexpert TROPICAL STORM SIX DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
MWHC/MIDWEST HURRICANE CENTER ST LOUIS MO
11 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2003


Based on images tonight TD 10 hase become the sixth tropical storm of the season. It has great outflow, thunderstorms over the center and a possible CDO forming. Also moist air is around it too and favorable atmospheric conditions. THe parameters are in place for rapid intensification to take place as warm SST lay ahead. Infact SHIPS brings this to a powerful hurricane. Models suggest a more WNW track but towards the end of the forecast period I expect a more west track. With the high ocean heat content ahead of the system rapid intensification could take place after 36 hours. The Eastern Caribbean Islands need to pay close attention as we could have a MAJOR HURRICANE heading for the Islands.

12HR VT 15.1N 35.7W 55 MPH
24HR VT 15.4N 38.5W 65 MPH
36HR VT 16.0N 41.2W 70 MPH
48HR VT 16.2N 44.0W 85 MPH
72HR VT 18.5N 49.0W 100 MPH
96HR VT 19.0N 52.5W 115 MPH
120HR VT 19.5N 56.0W 130 MPH

[Guest]

Now i wonder where Great one came up with this? Thats who this is btw.
And as well i will state like Linda said that this IS and WILL remain a troll free zone! And i do hope this is taken seriously!
As for my thinking on this? It has some potential and thats where i will leave it at for now!

[JetMaxx]

`

[Lindaloo]

(QUOTE) "Even a totally clueless boob will get lucky sometimes"


LOL Perry!!!