ATL: IRENE - Models
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models
12z GFS rolling in. At 30 hours, north of the 06z run. Looks like it will traverse over the majority of Hispaniola in this run:

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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models
Saved Image, GFS 18H


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Re: Re:
northtxboy wrote:But you cant say that the east GOM is out of the question. Thats the point I was trying to make.Nimbus wrote:Yesterday the storm was down around 14N 57W so the EGOM was a distinct possibility. Furthest west I thought it would go was Ft Myers Florida but if something changes like a stronger southeastern ridge evolution I would consider GOM track solutions.
One can't rule ANYTHING out so all should pay attention.
20-30-40-41....... it is just a guess anyway and at this point NO ONE is right or wrong.
I think given the latest trend, that the GOM is less in play then it was yesterday.
It will be interesting to see Pro Mets opinions with the relocation North and some models showing a solution further east.
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looks like the runs from Wednesday. east florida hit more at a straight on angle. with a gradual curve ..
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models
Saved Image GFS 42H


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48 hours first trough lifts out ridge building in.. going to be a gradual turn.
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models
If this thing pops off the north coast of hispaniola like that it will be a major problem for the USA
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models
Over the past 24hr, the overall modular trend has shifted in favor of the ECMWF and NOGAPS, which have been consistently treading upon the northern edge of the guidance. The 00Z and 12Z GFS ensembles have since followed suit. Keep in mind that the most recent GFS ensembles do not account for the likely center reformation, which is pending per reconnaissance data. Given the increasingly organized inner core, the relatively weak GFS solutions through T+36 seem less probable. A blend of the ECMWF/NOGAPS (+55 kt near E Hispaniola) and the GFS (weaker) seems best, but with slightly greater weight to the stronger models. The overall trend favors a track across the northern portion of the Dominican Republic, which is less mountainous (highest peak is ~1,000 feet) than the central range.
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Re:
Aric Dunn wrote:looks like the runs from Wednesday. east florida hit more at a straight on angle. with a gradual curve ..
I was thinking the same thing. It is funny how the models tend to go back sometimes to earlier runs.
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models
Saved image, GFS 54H


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Re:
USTropics wrote:I stand corrected. Even more north, along the northern coast of Hispaniola at 42 hours.
2 things this could get over the water nuch sooner than prior runs allowing it to bomb over the bahamas and also parallel FL east coast and pose a threat to the carolinas....TBD!
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models
60hr looks to have cleared Hispaniola.
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/12zgfstropical850mbVortSLP060.gif
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/12zgfstropical850mbVortSLP060.gif
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Re:
fci wrote:Funny how people's predictions quite often are for a storm to end up where they live.
Just sayin.........
Personally, I invite any of you to take Irene off the track the models have been showing!
We would surely take the rain off your hands, but not the wind. LOL
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GFS shows a westward movement - and a pending WNW turn - along the northern coasts of Haiti and eastern Cuba:
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/GemPakTier/MagGemPakImages/gfs/20110821/12/gfs_atlantic_063_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif
Strong modular congruency exists between the 00Z ECMWF and the 12Z GFS. The 500 mb pattern closely matches the more progressive solution of the ECMWF:
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/GemPakTier/MagGemPakImages/gfs/20110821/12/gfs_atlantic_063_500_vort_ht.gif
00Z ECMWF: http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMWF_0z/f72.gif
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/GemPakTier/MagGemPakImages/gfs/20110821/12/gfs_atlantic_063_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif
Strong modular congruency exists between the 00Z ECMWF and the 12Z GFS. The 500 mb pattern closely matches the more progressive solution of the ECMWF:
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/GemPakTier/MagGemPakImages/gfs/20110821/12/gfs_atlantic_063_500_vort_ht.gif
00Z ECMWF: http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMWF_0z/f72.gif
Last edited by MiamiensisWx on Sun Aug 21, 2011 11:08 am, edited 2 times in total.
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