ATL: IRENE - Models

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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#2301 Postby USTropics » Sun Aug 21, 2011 10:48 am

12z GFS rolling in. At 30 hours, north of the 06z run. Looks like it will traverse over the majority of Hispaniola in this run:

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#2302 Postby USTropics » Sun Aug 21, 2011 10:52 am

I stand corrected. Even more north, along the northern coast of Hispaniola at 42 hours.

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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#2303 Postby tolakram » Sun Aug 21, 2011 10:52 am

Saved Image, GFS 18H

Image
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Re: Re:

#2304 Postby fci » Sun Aug 21, 2011 10:54 am

northtxboy wrote:
Nimbus wrote:Yesterday the storm was down around 14N 57W so the EGOM was a distinct possibility. Furthest west I thought it would go was Ft Myers Florida but if something changes like a stronger southeastern ridge evolution I would consider GOM track solutions.
But you cant say that the east GOM is out of the question. Thats the point I was trying to make.


One can't rule ANYTHING out so all should pay attention.
20-30-40-41....... it is just a guess anyway and at this point NO ONE is right or wrong.
I think given the latest trend, that the GOM is less in play then it was yesterday.
It will be interesting to see Pro Mets opinions with the relocation North and some models showing a solution further east.
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#2305 Postby Aric Dunn » Sun Aug 21, 2011 10:54 am

looks like the runs from Wednesday. east florida hit more at a straight on angle. with a gradual curve ..
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Re:

#2306 Postby SFLcane » Sun Aug 21, 2011 10:54 am

USTropics wrote:I stand corrected. Even more north, along the northern coast of Hispaniola at 42 hours.

Image


Not good.
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#2307 Postby tolakram » Sun Aug 21, 2011 10:56 am

Saved Image GFS 42H

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#2308 Postby Aric Dunn » Sun Aug 21, 2011 10:57 am

48 hours first trough lifts out ridge building in.. going to be a gradual turn.
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#2309 Postby maxintensity » Sun Aug 21, 2011 10:57 am

If this thing pops off the north coast of hispaniola like that it will be a major problem for the USA
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#2310 Postby fci » Sun Aug 21, 2011 10:58 am

Funny how people's predictions quite often are for a storm to end up where they live.
Just sayin.........
Personally, I invite any of you to take Irene off the track the models have been showing! 8-)
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#2311 Postby USTropics » Sun Aug 21, 2011 11:00 am

54 hours, it's stayed on the northern coast of Hispaniola. Getting ready to exit back in to open waters:

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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#2312 Postby MiamiensisWx » Sun Aug 21, 2011 11:00 am

Over the past 24hr, the overall modular trend has shifted in favor of the ECMWF and NOGAPS, which have been consistently treading upon the northern edge of the guidance. The 00Z and 12Z GFS ensembles have since followed suit. Keep in mind that the most recent GFS ensembles do not account for the likely center reformation, which is pending per reconnaissance data. Given the increasingly organized inner core, the relatively weak GFS solutions through T+36 seem less probable. A blend of the ECMWF/NOGAPS (+55 kt near E Hispaniola) and the GFS (weaker) seems best, but with slightly greater weight to the stronger models. The overall trend favors a track across the northern portion of the Dominican Republic, which is less mountainous (highest peak is ~1,000 feet) than the central range.
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Re:

#2313 Postby blp » Sun Aug 21, 2011 11:00 am

Aric Dunn wrote:looks like the runs from Wednesday. east florida hit more at a straight on angle. with a gradual curve ..



I was thinking the same thing. It is funny how the models tend to go back sometimes to earlier runs.
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#2314 Postby tolakram » Sun Aug 21, 2011 11:03 am

Saved image, GFS 54H

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Re:

#2315 Postby Vortex » Sun Aug 21, 2011 11:03 am

USTropics wrote:I stand corrected. Even more north, along the northern coast of Hispaniola at 42 hours.

Image



2 things this could get over the water nuch sooner than prior runs allowing it to bomb over the bahamas and also parallel FL east coast and pose a threat to the carolinas....TBD!
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#2316 Postby blp » Sun Aug 21, 2011 11:03 am

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Re:

#2317 Postby Tireman4 » Sun Aug 21, 2011 11:04 am

fci wrote:Funny how people's predictions quite often are for a storm to end up where they live.
Just sayin.........
Personally, I invite any of you to take Irene off the track the models have been showing! 8-)


We would surely take the rain off your hands, but not the wind. LOL
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#2318 Postby USTropics » Sun Aug 21, 2011 11:05 am

72 hours, bombing north of Cuba:

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#2319 Postby MiamiensisWx » Sun Aug 21, 2011 11:05 am

GFS shows a westward movement - and a pending WNW turn - along the northern coasts of Haiti and eastern Cuba:

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/GemPakTier/MagGemPakImages/gfs/20110821/12/gfs_atlantic_063_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif

Strong modular congruency exists between the 00Z ECMWF and the 12Z GFS. The 500 mb pattern closely matches the more progressive solution of the ECMWF:

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/GemPakTier/MagGemPakImages/gfs/20110821/12/gfs_atlantic_063_500_vort_ht.gif

00Z ECMWF: http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMWF_0z/f72.gif
Last edited by MiamiensisWx on Sun Aug 21, 2011 11:08 am, edited 2 times in total.
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#2320 Postby Scorpion » Sun Aug 21, 2011 11:05 am

Boy, if it misses Cuba and does a gradual turn it is going to be one intense hurricane heading towards SFL and up the coast.
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