ATL: IRENE - Models

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psyclone
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#2361 Postby psyclone » Sun Aug 21, 2011 11:26 am

we certainly have a trend in florida's favor at this point. let's see if it persists.
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#2362 Postby maxintensity » Sun Aug 21, 2011 11:27 am

NHC could opt for a special advisory if Euro is on board as well. Maybe issue the advisory an hour early to show the seriousness of the situation down the road for the US. They'll need to show a landfalling cat 3 or cat 4 at least.
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Re:

#2363 Postby Aric Dunn » Sun Aug 21, 2011 11:27 am

psyclone wrote:we certainly have a trend in florida's favor at this point. let's see if it persists.


Florida has never been out of it..
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Re: Re:

#2364 Postby GTStorm » Sun Aug 21, 2011 11:28 am

CrazyC83 wrote:
GTStorm wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:no recurve... sratight north at 117 hours.. heading towards GA and SC


Not too worried..for Savannah, there's always a recurve... :cheesy:


Not with the ridge there.


did it weaken or strengthen from the 6Z run? seems like the GFS landfall has been trending northeast-ish, I would expect next run to be closer to mid SC / NC border.
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#2365 Postby storm4u » Sun Aug 21, 2011 11:29 am

no they wont


maxintensity wrote:NHC could opt for a special advisory if Euro is on board as well. Maybe issue the advisory an hour early to show the seriousness of the situation down the road for the US. They'll need to show a landfalling cat 3 or cat 4 at least.
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#2366 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Aug 21, 2011 11:30 am

maxintensity wrote:NHC could opt for a special advisory if Euro is on board as well. Maybe issue the advisory an hour early to show the seriousness of the situation down the road for the US. They'll need to show a landfalling cat 3 or cat 4 at least.


Land interaction could bust those forecasts completely though.
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#2367 Postby brunota2003 » Sun Aug 21, 2011 11:30 am

No, no special advisory...this is just ONE model run and a lot can change in 3 to 5 days. Nothing else warrants a SA, no major intensity changes, etc...plus, going from a weak Cat 1 to a Cat 3/4 in less than an advisory would definitely stir the media up.
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Re: Re:

#2368 Postby Vortex » Sun Aug 21, 2011 11:31 am

Aric Dunn wrote:
psyclone wrote:we certainly have a trend in florida's favor at this point. let's see if it persists.


Florida has never been out of it..



Trend in Florida's favor?????? Am I missing something?
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#2369 Postby maxintensity » Sun Aug 21, 2011 11:34 am

Image

This warrants a special advisory when you have a south florida getting a weak cat 1 and SC outside the cone of uncertainty. But still we will probably get the update at the usual time.
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#2370 Postby miamijaaz » Sun Aug 21, 2011 11:34 am

There ARE other cities in Florida other than in South Florida you know... :)

(not that South Florida is safe right now or anything)
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#2371 Postby Ivanhater » Sun Aug 21, 2011 11:35 am

GFS, EURO and Canadian now keep this to the east of Florida and show more of a problem for Georgia and the Carolinas...Florida would be on the weaker side as opposed if this moved into the eastern Gulf.
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#2372 Postby fci » Sun Aug 21, 2011 11:35 am

storm4u wrote:no they wont


maxintensity wrote:NHC could opt for a special advisory if Euro is on board as well. Maybe issue the advisory an hour early to show the seriousness of the situation down the road for the US. They'll need to show a landfalling cat 3 or cat 4 at least.


Just to expand a little on the short reply to you; a special advisory would be used for an immediate situation where waiting for the next advisory is too late. Local NWS offices eod talk to a future threat to tell residents to be ready
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#2373 Postby psyclone » Sun Aug 21, 2011 11:36 am

i am seeing a steady trend toward the east which over time puts more and more of the state either out of reach or on the weaker, western side of a northward moving storm. if the models continue to trend east, that would be better for florida, no? i'm just observing trends, nothing more.

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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#2374 Postby chris_fit » Sun Aug 21, 2011 11:39 am

Yesterday half the models took this into the eastern gulf, today they keep it east of FL. There is no need for a special advisory. Plenty of time to watch this storm, no one is out of the woods yet.
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#2375 Postby Evil Jeremy » Sun Aug 21, 2011 11:42 am

Despite today's model trends, I'm not letting my guard down, and neigher should anyone in Florida. All it would take is a nudge west of the 12z GFS to sent a monster riding up Florida's spine. Yesterday the models trended west, today east. Its not over yet, still a lot to unfold.
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#2376 Postby brunota2003 » Sun Aug 21, 2011 11:42 am

What we need are some G-IV flights to help the models out.

First one of those is:

FLIGHT THREE -- NOAA 49
A. 23/00Z
B. NOAA9 0609A IRENE
C. 22/1730Z
F. 41,000 45,000 FT
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#2377 Postby dmbthestone » Sun Aug 21, 2011 11:43 am

Evil Jeremy wrote:Despite today's model trends, I'm not letting my guard down, and neigher should anyone in Florida. All it would take is a nudge west of the 12z GFS to sent a monster riding up Florida's spine. Yesterday the models trended west, today east. Its not over yet, still a lot to unfold.


Ya, trying to follow this as a complete amateur can be nerve wracking lol
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Re:

#2378 Postby Bocadude85 » Sun Aug 21, 2011 11:44 am

psyclone wrote:we certainly have a trend in florida's favor at this point. let's see if it persists.



lol I am not very comfortable with a hurricane passing a 100 miles to my east considering the track error in that time frame is greater then 100 miles. I have a flight out of Miami thursday night so I am hoping this misses us to the east.
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#2379 Postby Aric Dunn » Sun Aug 21, 2011 11:46 am

12z nogaps is nearly identical.. except instead of nnw turn like the gfs at day 5 it stays straight north..

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical
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Re: Re:

#2380 Postby scotto » Sun Aug 21, 2011 11:48 am

Bocadude85 wrote:
psyclone wrote:we certainly have a trend in florida's favor at this point. let's see if it persists.



lol I am not very comfortable with a hurricane passing a 100 miles to my east considering the track error in that time frame is greater then 100 miles. I have a flight out of Miami thursday night so I am hoping this misses us to the east.



I wonder what the storm surge potentials would be for the Savannah and Charleston areas? :eek:
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