ATL: IRENE - Models

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Post Reply
Message
Author
User avatar
TwisterFanatic
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1041
Joined: Mon Jun 28, 2010 12:43 pm
Location: Sallisaw, Oklahoma

Re: Re:

#3001 Postby TwisterFanatic » Sun Aug 21, 2011 11:13 pm

Bocadude85 wrote:
Vortex wrote:H72 SE of Andros continues WNW and strengthening



http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... cal072.gif



Looks just like the 18z.. should turn to the NW soon and miss Fla to the east again


Actually it's quite a bit SW from 18z when comparing the two.
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Top
User avatar
PTPatrick
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1831
Joined: Sat Jun 12, 2004 8:38 am

Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#3002 Postby PTPatrick » Sun Aug 21, 2011 11:13 pm

The 0 z is close to the 18z until the 78 hr point. 0z is prolly 75 miles SWof the 18z 84 hr position
Last edited by PTPatrick on Sun Aug 21, 2011 11:13 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
SouthDadeFish
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 2835
Joined: Thu Sep 23, 2010 2:54 pm
Location: Miami, FL
Contact:
Contact SouthDadeFish

#3003 Postby SouthDadeFish » Sun Aug 21, 2011 11:13 pm

That is one fail of a trough the GFS shows.... Very weak.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
SeminoleWind
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 359
Age: 50
Joined: Wed Jun 02, 2010 8:37 pm
Location: Lake County Florida

Re:

#3004 Postby SeminoleWind » Sun Aug 21, 2011 11:14 pm

Vortex wrote:H+90 turing into weakness over western bahamas


http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... cal090.gif


very little weakness may not make to far north here on this run.
0 likes   
This post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Top
User avatar
AtlanticWind
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1894
Age: 66
Joined: Sun Aug 08, 2004 9:57 pm
Location: Plantation,Fla

Re:

#3005 Postby AtlanticWind » Sun Aug 21, 2011 11:14 pm

HurricaneWarning92 wrote:Is it still going wnw or nw?

A little closer to Sfl on this run
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
chris_fit
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3242
Age: 42
Joined: Wed Sep 10, 2003 11:58 pm
Location: Tampa Bay Area, FL

#3006 Postby chris_fit » Sun Aug 21, 2011 11:14 pm

Much closer to SE FL @ 90 Hrs than the previous run
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Vortex
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4644
Age: 53
Joined: Fri Aug 01, 2003 9:34 pm
Location: Hilton Head, SC

#3007 Postby Vortex » Sun Aug 21, 2011 11:14 pm

H+96 near landfall on SE FL coast


http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... cal096.gif
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
SouthFLTropics
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4239
Age: 50
Joined: Thu Aug 14, 2003 8:04 am
Location: Port St. Lucie, Florida

Re:

#3008 Postby SouthFLTropics » Sun Aug 21, 2011 11:14 pm

SouthDadeFish wrote:That is one fail of a trough the GFS shows.... Very weak.


That's about what I would expect for this time of year. If it was mid/late September I'd be looking for something more "troughy"...

SFT
0 likes   
Fourth Generation Florida Native

Personal Storm History: David 79, Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22, Milton 24
Top
User avatar
Vortex
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4644
Age: 53
Joined: Fri Aug 01, 2003 9:34 pm
Location: Hilton Head, SC

Re: Re:

#3009 Postby Vortex » Sun Aug 21, 2011 11:15 pm

SeminoleWind wrote:
Vortex wrote:H+90 turing into weakness over western bahamas


http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... cal090.gif


very little weakness may not make to far north here on this run.



Your right, I jumped the gun
0 likes   
Top
Scorpion

#3010 Postby Scorpion » Sun Aug 21, 2011 11:15 pm

Palm Beach gets the core at 102
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
SFLcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 10163
Age: 47
Joined: Sat Jun 05, 2010 1:44 pm
Location: Lake Worth Florida

Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#3011 Postby SFLcane » Sun Aug 21, 2011 11:15 pm

Image
0 likes   
Top
Mouton
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 222
Age: 79
Joined: Sat Jul 30, 2011 8:13 am
Location: Amelia Island Florida

Re:

#3012 Postby Mouton » Sun Aug 21, 2011 11:16 pm

Vortex wrote:H+90 turing into weakness over western bahamas


http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... cal090.gif


If it follows this projection, that ridging filling in to the north will slow this storm down quite a bit and push it onto the Fl Peninsula circa Daytona? perhaps.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
blp
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2841
Age: 46
Joined: Thu Sep 09, 2004 7:51 pm
Location: Miami, FL
Contact:
Contact blp

Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#3013 Postby blp » Sun Aug 21, 2011 11:16 pm

West shift from 18z.
0 likes   
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Top
bella_may
Category 4
Category 4
Posts: 908
Joined: Wed Dec 22, 2010 2:13 pm
Location: SE Mississippi coast

#3014 Postby bella_may » Sun Aug 21, 2011 11:16 pm

Yet another westward model trend.....
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
SouthDadeFish
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 2835
Joined: Thu Sep 23, 2010 2:54 pm
Location: Miami, FL
Contact:
Contact SouthDadeFish

#3015 Postby SouthDadeFish » Sun Aug 21, 2011 11:16 pm

Well definitely a shift back west compared to the 18Z. Also, I doubt it would strengthen that quickly after Hispaniola. Anyone in the cone needs to keep a close eye on this one!
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Vortex
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4644
Age: 53
Joined: Fri Aug 01, 2003 9:34 pm
Location: Hilton Head, SC

#3016 Postby Vortex » Sun Aug 21, 2011 11:17 pm

H+102 near landfall west palm Beach.....almost spot on to the 11pm NHC positioning



http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... cal102.gif
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
SeminoleWind
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 359
Age: 50
Joined: Wed Jun 02, 2010 8:37 pm
Location: Lake County Florida

Re: Re:

#3017 Postby SeminoleWind » Sun Aug 21, 2011 11:17 pm

SouthFLTropics wrote:
SouthDadeFish wrote:That is one fail of a trough the GFS shows.... Very weak.


That's about what I would expect for this time of year. If it was mid/late September I'd be looking for something more "troughy"...

SFT



i was saying that earlier if it was 2 weeks from now i would bite on turn northerly but just seems a little early for a trough to dig like that yet.
0 likes   
This post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Top
Scorpion

#3018 Postby Scorpion » Sun Aug 21, 2011 11:17 pm

Looks like landfall around Canaveral
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
AtlanticWind
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1894
Age: 66
Joined: Sun Aug 08, 2004 9:57 pm
Location: Plantation,Fla

Re: Re:

#3019 Postby AtlanticWind » Sun Aug 21, 2011 11:17 pm

Mouton wrote:
Vortex wrote:H+90 turing into weakness over western bahamas


http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... cal090.gif


If it follows this projection, that ridging filling in to the north will slow this storm down quite a bit and push it onto the Fl Peninsula circa Daytona? perhaps.

Much closer this almost landfall , hope this is not a trend starting
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
PTPatrick
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1831
Joined: Sat Jun 12, 2004 8:38 am

Re:

#3020 Postby PTPatrick » Sun Aug 21, 2011 11:17 pm

Scorpion wrote:Palm Beach gets the core at 102



Well its actually still a ways offshore. West side... I wouldnt call palm beach in the "core" on this run
Last edited by PTPatrick on Sun Aug 21, 2011 11:17 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   
Top
Post Reply

Return to “2011”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 4 guests