ATL: IRENE - Models

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TwisterFanatic
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Re: Re:

#3001 Postby TwisterFanatic » Sun Aug 21, 2011 11:13 pm

Bocadude85 wrote:
Vortex wrote:H72 SE of Andros continues WNW and strengthening



http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... cal072.gif



Looks just like the 18z.. should turn to the NW soon and miss Fla to the east again


Actually it's quite a bit SW from 18z when comparing the two.
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#3002 Postby PTPatrick » Sun Aug 21, 2011 11:13 pm

The 0 z is close to the 18z until the 78 hr point. 0z is prolly 75 miles SWof the 18z 84 hr position
Last edited by PTPatrick on Sun Aug 21, 2011 11:13 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#3003 Postby SouthDadeFish » Sun Aug 21, 2011 11:13 pm

That is one fail of a trough the GFS shows.... Very weak.
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Re:

#3004 Postby SeminoleWind » Sun Aug 21, 2011 11:14 pm

Vortex wrote:H+90 turing into weakness over western bahamas


http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... cal090.gif


very little weakness may not make to far north here on this run.
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Re:

#3005 Postby AtlanticWind » Sun Aug 21, 2011 11:14 pm

HurricaneWarning92 wrote:Is it still going wnw or nw?

A little closer to Sfl on this run
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#3006 Postby chris_fit » Sun Aug 21, 2011 11:14 pm

Much closer to SE FL @ 90 Hrs than the previous run
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#3007 Postby Vortex » Sun Aug 21, 2011 11:14 pm

H+96 near landfall on SE FL coast


http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... cal096.gif
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Re:

#3008 Postby SouthFLTropics » Sun Aug 21, 2011 11:14 pm

SouthDadeFish wrote:That is one fail of a trough the GFS shows.... Very weak.


That's about what I would expect for this time of year. If it was mid/late September I'd be looking for something more "troughy"...

SFT
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Re: Re:

#3009 Postby Vortex » Sun Aug 21, 2011 11:15 pm

SeminoleWind wrote:
Vortex wrote:H+90 turing into weakness over western bahamas


http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... cal090.gif


very little weakness may not make to far north here on this run.



Your right, I jumped the gun
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#3010 Postby Scorpion » Sun Aug 21, 2011 11:15 pm

Palm Beach gets the core at 102
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#3011 Postby SFLcane » Sun Aug 21, 2011 11:15 pm

Image
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Re:

#3012 Postby Mouton » Sun Aug 21, 2011 11:16 pm

Vortex wrote:H+90 turing into weakness over western bahamas


http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... cal090.gif


If it follows this projection, that ridging filling in to the north will slow this storm down quite a bit and push it onto the Fl Peninsula circa Daytona? perhaps.
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#3013 Postby blp » Sun Aug 21, 2011 11:16 pm

West shift from 18z.
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#3014 Postby bella_may » Sun Aug 21, 2011 11:16 pm

Yet another westward model trend.....
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#3015 Postby SouthDadeFish » Sun Aug 21, 2011 11:16 pm

Well definitely a shift back west compared to the 18Z. Also, I doubt it would strengthen that quickly after Hispaniola. Anyone in the cone needs to keep a close eye on this one!
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#3016 Postby Vortex » Sun Aug 21, 2011 11:17 pm

H+102 near landfall west palm Beach.....almost spot on to the 11pm NHC positioning



http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... cal102.gif
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Re: Re:

#3017 Postby SeminoleWind » Sun Aug 21, 2011 11:17 pm

SouthFLTropics wrote:
SouthDadeFish wrote:That is one fail of a trough the GFS shows.... Very weak.


That's about what I would expect for this time of year. If it was mid/late September I'd be looking for something more "troughy"...

SFT



i was saying that earlier if it was 2 weeks from now i would bite on turn northerly but just seems a little early for a trough to dig like that yet.
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#3018 Postby Scorpion » Sun Aug 21, 2011 11:17 pm

Looks like landfall around Canaveral
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Re: Re:

#3019 Postby AtlanticWind » Sun Aug 21, 2011 11:17 pm

Mouton wrote:
Vortex wrote:H+90 turing into weakness over western bahamas


http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... cal090.gif


If it follows this projection, that ridging filling in to the north will slow this storm down quite a bit and push it onto the Fl Peninsula circa Daytona? perhaps.

Much closer this almost landfall , hope this is not a trend starting
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Re:

#3020 Postby PTPatrick » Sun Aug 21, 2011 11:17 pm

Scorpion wrote:Palm Beach gets the core at 102



Well its actually still a ways offshore. West side... I wouldnt call palm beach in the "core" on this run
Last edited by PTPatrick on Sun Aug 21, 2011 11:17 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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