ATL: IRENE - Models

[wjs3]

Can anyone tell if the GFS has Irene making landfall? it's so difficult to tell because it's so strong and the white is covering up the coastline, lol...

Yep, makes landfall in North Carolina.

[chris_fit]

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[PTrackerLA]

Wow look out northeast on this run . First hurricane hit in 20 years?

[Ev1948]

I come here to look at the models( I don't know what I am looking at) but somehow it helps me to understand, I read all that you are saying, I want to thank all of you in what you do keeping us informed, it helps to get through these storms, for me anyway, so many of you work so hard to keep us updated. Just Thank You !

Evelyn

[SouthFLTropics]

i can only imagine the rain totals for the whole eastern seaboard for the 0z GFS..

Too bad we can't bottle it all up and send it to Texas. Would you like some fresh bottled Irene water Rock???

SFT

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

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Crap, there goes Long Island.

[SouthFloridawx]

Wow, what a storm this is going to be.

[wjs3]

Wow look out northeast on this run .

Yeah--it JUST misses the trough and then just enough ridging builds in to keep it pinned against the seaboard the whole way. It would be really something.

[Listeri69]

Looks like this one is heading straight for us in CT 150hrs is some time away should I be worried yet?

[maxintensity]

Irene poised to become a media sensation on that track. Remains likely to rival katrina if it takes that path.

[SouthFloridawx]

Up to 14 states affected.

[SouthFLTropics]

EPIC!!! If this holds true the media is going to be in a frenzy!!! I don't think I've ever seen Cantore broadcast from Times Square before???

[chris_fit]

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Think I'm going to bed... FL looks good to me! Will send some thoughts to our neighbors up north!

[wjs3]

Looks like this one is heading straight for us in CT 150hrs is some time away should I be worried yet?

Be prepared. Never know. Almost a week away. A lot can change, or not.

[SouthFloridawx]

Look out Canada too!

[wjs3]

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Think I'm going to bed... FL looks good to me! Will send some thoughts to our neighbors up north!

Awesome work. Thank you!

[JTD]

2nd run in a row of the GFS to show a NYC hit. A 2-3 hitting NYC is the ultimate nightmare scenario, 10 x worse than Katrina. See Derek Ortt's posts on S2K on the subject written years ago.

[maxintensity]

:uarrow: EPIC!!! If this holds true the media is going to be in a frenzy!!! I don't think I've ever seen Cantore broadcast from Times Square before???

times square is the crossroads of the world. That would be epic

[PTrackerLA]

This will become a HUGE news story tomorrow if the Euro shows a similar solution. Very well may be one for the history books here, so many millions directly impacted.

[WxGuy1]

I wouldn't get too hung up on small details right now. Granted, small details may make a very significant impact on the effects that any given may experience, but we're still talking about a 5 day forecast on a strengthening (in the medium term, at least) hurricane that's going to recurve (probably not out to sea, but it's path will certainly turn clockwise with time). As I'm sure some of us know, there angle of approach may be very acute in this case, so minor fluctuations in the heading of the hurricane by day 5 may end up moving the landfall location hundreds of miles one way or another. I know it's occassionally fun to do play-by-play, fretting over every new graphic that comes out for every new model and new run, but it's probably not worth the added stress right now if you are living along the coast between Florida and Maine. It's easy for me to say that sitting in the middle of the continent, but it's true. Keep an eye on the models, begin to think about preliminary plans, but don't get too caught up on the minor trends or differences in a particular model and model run.

The trend over many models and many runs has certainly been eastward. You can see that in this loop of all GFS forecasts valid Friday morning --> CLICK HERE.

Also, for those who may not follow tropical weather frequently, please remember that, when we speak of "ridges" or "ridging" in reference to steering currents (e.g. where will the tropical cyclone go?), you'll want to look at 300-500 mb height maps (for hurricanes) or 500-700 mb height maps (for weaker tropical cyclones). The loop I linked to above shows the surface pressure, which doesn't particularly affect the motion of a strong tropical cyclone like Irene. See THIS LINK for current steering analysis using 400-850 mb winds, or click the 250-850 mb link at the top of that page (which will be more representative of the steering currents pretty soon as Irene continues to deepen).



There's also a nice example of a col to the NW of Irene right now. The axis of dilation lies NW-SE to the northwest of Irene.