ATL: IRENE - Models

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Re:

#4381 Postby jhpigott » Tue Aug 23, 2011 10:18 am

PTrackerLA wrote:This thread sure has gotten quiet :lol: .


Should pick here shortly as the 12z GFS starts running in about 15 minutes.
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#4382 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Aug 23, 2011 10:26 am

HurricaneWarning92 wrote:Yesterday, a lot of Florida residents were posting stuff here, but now that the storm isnt coming this way, it stopped. lol

Just waiting on the 12z guidance to start. and for her to start turning now...
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#4383 Postby mf_dolphin » Tue Aug 23, 2011 10:31 am

Folks this is the Models thread not the general discussion. If you're not talking about a specific model run then please use the discussion thread. Just so I'm clear, the NHC track is not a model. :-) Please understand that we're just trying to keep the discussion on track and make it easier to see the model data as it's available.
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#4384 Postby sandyb » Tue Aug 23, 2011 10:41 am

so sorry forgot what thread i was in... :sun:
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#4385 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Aug 23, 2011 10:42 am

12z GFS is a little left of 6z. well more south would be a better term
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#4386 Postby caneman » Tue Aug 23, 2011 10:44 am

Image please Aric
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#4387 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Aug 23, 2011 10:45 am

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... mageSize=M
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#4388 Postby gatorcane » Tue Aug 23, 2011 10:45 am

12Z GFS, 18 hours:
Image

06Z GFS, 24 hours:
Image
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#4389 Postby gatorcane » Tue Aug 23, 2011 10:48 am

12Z GFS identical to 06Z position at 36 hours.

A little bit more 700MB ridging to the north, but not really going to change the track too much.
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Re:

#4390 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Aug 23, 2011 10:53 am

gatorcane wrote:12Z GFS identical to 06Z position at 36 hours.

A little bit more 700MB ridging to the north, but not really going to change the track too much.


its a little left at beginning and now again at 39 hours. in central bahamas vs riding the east side of the bahamas.

would say a good 50 to 60 mile shift wsw this run
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Re: Re:

#4391 Postby gatorcane » Tue Aug 23, 2011 10:55 am

Aric Dunn wrote:
gatorcane wrote:12Z GFS identical to 06Z position at 36 hours.

A little bit more 700MB ridging to the north, but not really going to change the track too much.


its a little left at beginning and now again at 39 hours. in central bahamas vs riding the east side of the bahamas.

would say a good 50 to 60 mile shift wsw this run


Looks like it is a little more west, but not much, insignificant shift.
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#4392 Postby xironman » Tue Aug 23, 2011 10:57 am

Trough not digging as deep at 500mb, no time to post images.
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#4393 Postby gatorcane » Tue Aug 23, 2011 10:58 am

xironman wrote:Trough not digging as deep at 500mb, no time to post images.


Synoptics looks very similar to 00Z and 06Z...
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#4394 Postby Jevo » Tue Aug 23, 2011 10:58 am

We have the 12z Euro around 2PM EST; correct?
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Re: Re:

#4395 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Aug 23, 2011 10:58 am

gatorcane wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:
gatorcane wrote:12Z GFS identical to 06Z position at 36 hours.

A little bit more 700MB ridging to the north, but not really going to change the track too much.


its a little left at beginning and now again at 39 hours. in central bahamas vs riding the east side of the bahamas.

would say a good 50 to 60 mile shift wsw this run


Looks like it is a little more west, but not much, insignificant shift.


vergy significant.. for both florida and well maybe those people that live on the islands!! lol
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#4396 Postby gatorcane » Tue Aug 23, 2011 11:00 am

OK, now there is a shift west....not big, but more noticeable:

06Z GFS:
Image

12Z GFS:
Image
Last edited by gatorcane on Tue Aug 23, 2011 11:01 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#4397 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Aug 23, 2011 11:01 am

At 51 hours looks like its going over grand bahama island.. that only 70 miles off the florida coast. I would call that pretty significant shift. this is what we have been saying .. every little wobble west brings it that much closer to the coast. since they are already forecasting TS conditions any further west shift makes it more likely
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#4398 Postby KWT » Tue Aug 23, 2011 11:01 am

Upper trough a little faster, Irene a bit further west, not huge amount but at this time it does make a big difference for the Bahamas and maybe down the line.
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Re:

#4399 Postby HurricaneWarning92 » Tue Aug 23, 2011 11:02 am

Aric Dunn wrote:At 51 hours looks like its going over grand bahama island.. that only 70 miles off the florida coast. I would call that pretty significant shift. this is what we have been saying .. every little wobble west brings it that much closer to the coast. since they are already forecasting TS conditions any further west shift makes it more likely


wow. 70 miles? it was 140 miles before...
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#4400 Postby gatorcane » Tue Aug 23, 2011 11:03 am

It looks like the 06Z is a little bit faster through the Central Bahamas...
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