ATL: IRENE - Models

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Post Reply
Message
Author
jhpigott
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 570
Joined: Wed Jan 02, 2008 8:09 pm
Location: North Palm Beach, Florida

Re:

#4381 Postby jhpigott » Tue Aug 23, 2011 10:18 am

PTrackerLA wrote:This thread sure has gotten quiet :lol: .


Should pick here shortly as the 12z GFS starts running in about 15 minutes.
0 likes   
Top
Aric Dunn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 21238
Age: 42
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
Location: Ready for the Chase.
Contact:
Contact Aric Dunn

Re:

#4382 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Aug 23, 2011 10:26 am

HurricaneWarning92 wrote:Yesterday, a lot of Florida residents were posting stuff here, but now that the storm isnt coming this way, it stopped. lol

Just waiting on the 12z guidance to start. and for her to start turning now...
0 likes   
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask :)

Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
Top
User avatar
mf_dolphin
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 17758
Age: 68
Joined: Tue Oct 08, 2002 2:05 pm
Location: St Petersburg, FL
Contact:
Contact mf_dolphin

#4383 Postby mf_dolphin » Tue Aug 23, 2011 10:31 am

Folks this is the Models thread not the general discussion. If you're not talking about a specific model run then please use the discussion thread. Just so I'm clear, the NHC track is not a model. :-) Please understand that we're just trying to keep the discussion on track and make it easier to see the model data as it's available.
0 likes   
Top
sandyb
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 221
Age: 64
Joined: Thu Jul 12, 2007 3:09 pm

Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#4384 Postby sandyb » Tue Aug 23, 2011 10:41 am

so sorry forgot what thread i was in... :sun:
0 likes   
CARTERET COUNTY NC
Top
Aric Dunn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 21238
Age: 42
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
Location: Ready for the Chase.
Contact:
Contact Aric Dunn

#4385 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Aug 23, 2011 10:42 am

12z GFS is a little left of 6z. well more south would be a better term
0 likes   
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask :)

Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
Top
caneman

Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#4386 Postby caneman » Tue Aug 23, 2011 10:44 am

Image please Aric
0 likes   
Top
Aric Dunn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 21238
Age: 42
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
Location: Ready for the Chase.
Contact:
Contact Aric Dunn

#4387 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Aug 23, 2011 10:45 am

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... mageSize=M
0 likes   
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask :)

Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
Top
User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 23691
Age: 47
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

#4388 Postby gatorcane » Tue Aug 23, 2011 10:45 am

12Z GFS, 18 hours:
Image

06Z GFS, 24 hours:
Image
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 23691
Age: 47
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

#4389 Postby gatorcane » Tue Aug 23, 2011 10:48 am

12Z GFS identical to 06Z position at 36 hours.

A little bit more 700MB ridging to the north, but not really going to change the track too much.
0 likes   
Top
Aric Dunn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 21238
Age: 42
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
Location: Ready for the Chase.
Contact:
Contact Aric Dunn

Re:

#4390 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Aug 23, 2011 10:53 am

gatorcane wrote:12Z GFS identical to 06Z position at 36 hours.

A little bit more 700MB ridging to the north, but not really going to change the track too much.


its a little left at beginning and now again at 39 hours. in central bahamas vs riding the east side of the bahamas.

would say a good 50 to 60 mile shift wsw this run
0 likes   
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask :)

Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
Top
User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 23691
Age: 47
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

Re: Re:

#4391 Postby gatorcane » Tue Aug 23, 2011 10:55 am

Aric Dunn wrote:
gatorcane wrote:12Z GFS identical to 06Z position at 36 hours.

A little bit more 700MB ridging to the north, but not really going to change the track too much.


its a little left at beginning and now again at 39 hours. in central bahamas vs riding the east side of the bahamas.

would say a good 50 to 60 mile shift wsw this run


Looks like it is a little more west, but not much, insignificant shift.
0 likes   
Top
xironman
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2522
Joined: Sun Jun 10, 2007 4:53 pm
Location: NoVA

Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#4392 Postby xironman » Tue Aug 23, 2011 10:57 am

Trough not digging as deep at 500mb, no time to post images.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 23691
Age: 47
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#4393 Postby gatorcane » Tue Aug 23, 2011 10:58 am

xironman wrote:Trough not digging as deep at 500mb, no time to post images.


Synoptics looks very similar to 00Z and 06Z...
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Jevo
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1729
Age: 47
Joined: Tue Aug 03, 2004 8:45 pm
Location: The Flemish Cap
Contact:
Contact Jevo

Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#4394 Postby Jevo » Tue Aug 23, 2011 10:58 am

We have the 12z Euro around 2PM EST; correct?
0 likes   
Disclaimer: 50% of the time I have no clue of what I am talking about. Chances are I am taking a less than educated guess that sounds good because 10 years ago I stole Mike Watkins book 'The Hurricane and its Impact'. For official information please direct yourself to the NHC and their cadre of weather geniuses.
Top
Aric Dunn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 21238
Age: 42
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
Location: Ready for the Chase.
Contact:
Contact Aric Dunn

Re: Re:

#4395 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Aug 23, 2011 10:58 am

gatorcane wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:
gatorcane wrote:12Z GFS identical to 06Z position at 36 hours.

A little bit more 700MB ridging to the north, but not really going to change the track too much.


its a little left at beginning and now again at 39 hours. in central bahamas vs riding the east side of the bahamas.

would say a good 50 to 60 mile shift wsw this run


Looks like it is a little more west, but not much, insignificant shift.


vergy significant.. for both florida and well maybe those people that live on the islands!! lol
0 likes   
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask :)

Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
Top
User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 23691
Age: 47
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

#4396 Postby gatorcane » Tue Aug 23, 2011 11:00 am

OK, now there is a shift west....not big, but more noticeable:

06Z GFS:
Image

12Z GFS:
Image
Last edited by gatorcane on Tue Aug 23, 2011 11:01 am, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   
Top
Aric Dunn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 21238
Age: 42
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
Location: Ready for the Chase.
Contact:
Contact Aric Dunn

#4397 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Aug 23, 2011 11:01 am

At 51 hours looks like its going over grand bahama island.. that only 70 miles off the florida coast. I would call that pretty significant shift. this is what we have been saying .. every little wobble west brings it that much closer to the coast. since they are already forecasting TS conditions any further west shift makes it more likely
0 likes   
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask :)

Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
Top
User avatar
KWT
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 31415
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2004 11:02 am
Location: UK!!!

#4398 Postby KWT » Tue Aug 23, 2011 11:01 am

Upper trough a little faster, Irene a bit further west, not huge amount but at this time it does make a big difference for the Bahamas and maybe down the line.
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
Top
HurricaneWarning92
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 520
Joined: Sat Jul 23, 2011 4:33 pm
Location: Pembroke Pines, S. Florida (Lat: 26.00N, Lon: 80.22W)

Re:

#4399 Postby HurricaneWarning92 » Tue Aug 23, 2011 11:02 am

Aric Dunn wrote:At 51 hours looks like its going over grand bahama island.. that only 70 miles off the florida coast. I would call that pretty significant shift. this is what we have been saying .. every little wobble west brings it that much closer to the coast. since they are already forecasting TS conditions any further west shift makes it more likely


wow. 70 miles? it was 140 miles before...
0 likes   
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Top
User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 23691
Age: 47
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

#4400 Postby gatorcane » Tue Aug 23, 2011 11:03 am

It looks like the 06Z is a little bit faster through the Central Bahamas...
0 likes   
Top
Post Reply

Return to “2011”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 3 guests