000
WTNT44 KNHC 260255
TCDAT4
HURRICANE IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
1100 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2011
TWO HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT...ONE AIR FORCE AND ONE NOAA...ARE
AGAIN TONIGHT SUPPLYING VERY VALUABLE METEOROLOGICAL DATA TO THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER. BOTH PLANES INDICATE THAT THE CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS GRADUALLY FALLING AND IS NOW NEAR 942 MB...BUT THE
WINDS HAVE NOT INCREASED YET. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 100
KNOTS AT THIS TIME. IRENE HAS MOVED AWAY FROM THE NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS AND IS NOW OVER OPEN WATERS. THE EYE HAS BECOME A LITTLE
BETTER DEFINED ON SATELLITE AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY AND IT APPEARS
THAT THE EYEWALL IS CONTRACTING. GIVEN THE CURRENT STRUCTURE AND
THE WARM WATERS ALONG THE TRACK OF THE HURRICANE...SOME
STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. A SLOW
WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN THEREAFTER...BUT IRENE IS EXPECTED TO
APPROACH THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA A POWERFUL HURRICANE. IN
FACT...THE HIGH RESOLUTION ECMWF SHOWS A VERY INTENSE CYCLONE
APPROACHING THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST.
SATELLITE AND RECONNAISSANCE FIXES INDICATE THAT IRENE IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 12 KNOTS. THE HURRICANE IS
ALREADY ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND IS READY TO
INTERACT WITH SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE THE APPROACHING
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. IRENE HAS NOWHERE TO GO BUT NORTHWARD WITH A
GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AFTER THE CENTER CROSSES OR
PASSES NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. THE TRACK GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
VERY CONSISTENT AND CONTINUES TO BE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED...GIVING NO
REASON TO MAKE A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.
GIVEN THE CURRENT FORECAST...IT IS NOT NECESSARY TO ADJUST THE U.S.
WATCHES AND WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 26/0300Z 28.3N 77.3W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 26/1200Z 30.0N 77.8W 105 KT 120 MPH
24H 27/0000Z 31.8N 77.6W 110 KT 125 MPH
36H 27/1200Z 33.7N 77.1W 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 28/0000Z 36.0N 76.3W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 29/0000Z 42.0N 73.0W 70 KT 80 MPH...INLAND
96H 30/0000Z 51.0N 66.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 31/0000Z 58.0N 50.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
000
WTNT34 KNHC 260254
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IRENE ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
1100 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2011
...HURRICANE IRENE AIMS ITS FURY TOWARD THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST...
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.3N 77.3W
ABOUT 490 MI...785 KM SSW OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...942 MB...27.82 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE WARNING
FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS EXCEPT FOR GRAND BAHAMA AND THE ABACO
ISLANDS.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE GRAND BAHAMA AND THE ABACO ISLANDS
* THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA FROM LITTLE RIVER INLET NORTHWARD TO
THE VIRGINIA BORDER...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO...ALBEMARLE...AND
CURRITUCK SOUNDS
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE VIRGINIA/NORTH CAROLINA BORDER NORTHWARD TO SANDY HOOK NEW
JERSEY...INCLUDING DELAWARE BAY...AND CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF SMITH
POINT
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA TO LITTLE RIVER INLET
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SMITH POINT NORTHWARD AND THE TIDAL POTOMAC
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND NEW ENGLAND
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IRENE.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.3 WEST. IRENE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD
THE NORTH-NORTHEAST SHOULD BEGIN THEREAFTER. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...IRENE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS...AND THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL PASS WELL OFFSHORE OF
THE EAST COAST OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN FLORIDA EARLY FRIDAY. THE
HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA ON
SATURDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 115 MPH...185 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IRENE IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY.
IRENE IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 290 MILES...465 KM. NOAA
BUOY 41010 LOCATED ABOUT 140 MILES...220 KM EAST OF CAPE CANAVERAL
FLORIDA RECENTLY REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 49 MPH...79 KM/H...
AND A WIND GUST OF 65 MPH...104 KM/H.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY A NOAA HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 942 MB...27.82 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE SUBSIDING OVER
THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE WARNING AREA ALONG THE UNITED
STATES EAST COAST BY LATE FRIDAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO FIRST REACH THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA BY SATURDAY.
STORM SURGE...ALONG THE EASTERN COAST OF THE UNITED STATES...AN
EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH
AS 5 TO 10 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING
AREA INCLUDING THE ALBEMARLE AND PAMLICO SOUNDS. NEAR THE
COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE...DESTRUCTIVE...AND
LIFE-THREATENING WAVES. IRENE ALSO HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
SIGNIFICANT STORM SURGE FLOODING WITHIN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA
INCLUDING PORTIONS OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY...TRIBUTARIES...AND THE
EASTERN SHORE.
RAINFALL...IRENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6
TO 12 INCHES OVER THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15
INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND IN
THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES ALONG THE PATH OF IRENE.
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY IRENE ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE COAST
OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THESE SWELLS WILL CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
000
WTNT24 KNHC 260253
TCMAT4
HURRICANE IRENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
0300 UTC FRI AUG 26 2011
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE WARNING
FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS EXCEPT FOR GRAND BAHAMA AND THE ABACO
ISLANDS.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE GRAND BAHAMA AND THE ABACO ISLANDS
* THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA FROM LITTLE RIVER INLET NORTHWARD TO
THE VIRGINIA BORDER...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO...ALBEMARLE...AND
CURRITUCK SOUNDS
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE VIRGINIA/NORTH CAROLINA BORDER NORTHWARD TO SANDY HOOK NEW
JERSEY...INCLUDING DELAWARE BAY...AND CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF SMITH
POINT
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA TO LITTLE RIVER INLET
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SMITH POINT NORTHWARD AND THE TIDAL POTOMAC
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND NEW ENGLAND
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IRENE.
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.3N 77.3W AT 26/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 12 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 942 MB
EYE DIAMETER 25 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT.
64 KT....... 70NE 60SE 25SW 50NW.
50 KT.......110NE 100SE 50SW 75NW.
34 KT.......250NE 200SE 125SW 160NW.
12 FT SEAS..330NE 300SE 120SW 270NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.3N 77.3W AT 26/0300Z
AT 26/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.7N 77.4W
FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 30.0N 77.8W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 70NE 60SE 25SW 50NW.
50 KT...110NE 100SE 50SW 75NW.
34 KT...250NE 200SE 125SW 160NW.
FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 31.8N 77.6W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 70NE 60SE 25SW 50NW.
50 KT...110NE 100SE 50SW 75NW.
34 KT...250NE 200SE 125SW 160NW.
FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 33.7N 77.1W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 70NE 60SE 25SW 50NW.
50 KT...110NE 100SE 50SW 75NW.
34 KT...250NE 200SE 125SW 160NW.
FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 36.0N 76.3W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT...120NE 120SE 60SW 75NW.
34 KT...270NE 240SE 140SW 120NW.
FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 42.0N 73.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT...120NE 120SE 60SW 75NW.
34 KT...270NE 270SE 140SW 120NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 30/0000Z 51.0N 66.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 31/0000Z 58.0N 50.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.3N 77.3W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/0900Z
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
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