Clsoe to making a FINAL call on Fabian AKA DONNA

[obxhurricane]

Stormchaser: I certainly admire your enthusiasm with regards to Fabian, and the famed storm Donna. I, like you, have a fascination with Donna. It was a powerful storm, and it took a track unlike any other(with regards to how many states it affected).

Fabian, however, is way too far away to put any historical spin on it's eventual track. There are simply too many variables at play. IMO...Fabian will be located roughly halfway between PR and Bermud in 5-6 days. Thereafter it is impossible to say what may happen. Pure speculation at this point is for recurvature somewhere around 65W. But that's assuming the ridge will break down.

In any case, this will be fun to watch, and I will be hoping for something a little closer than recurve at 65...if you know what I mean.

[ChaserUK]

Thankx Obxhurricane - I need calming down sometimes!!!! Historical tracks howvere very hard to go by, so many variables. That said recurve at 65 - possible extratropical for the UK?

[obxhurricane]

ChaserUK: I wouldn't hop on an airplane just yet. But if you do decide to come you're more than welcome to visit the Outer Banks...we'd love to have ya.

More than likely Fabian would be 10 plus days away from having any impact on the East coast...and like we already said...that's not very certain.

[Stephanie]

Colin...too early to call. If its like seasons past, it will do that track but be about 200 miles further east!! Bad thing is, if it does that, it will curve back west and hit Jersey dead on

GREAT!!!! :o

[isobar]

Colin...too early to call. If its like seasons past, it will do that track but be about 200 miles further east!! Bad thing is, if it does that, it will curve back west and hit Jersey dead on

GREAT!!!! :o

Wow Steph, first an earthquake, now a cane?! Might as well move to San Francisco or Galveston to be safe!

[Stormchaser16]

ObxHurricane-To understand what i am saying about Donna you need to understand the analog to 1960. It's been talked about for a long time now. The latest piece of evidence to it was Ignacio in the Epac. Im not even remotely calling for a storm the magnitude of Donna but nonetheless a track and setup similar to that of Donna. For example. The 500 MB readings in the U.S back when Donna was around showed a strong ridge in hte midwest(as is forecast to occur). As well as a sharp trough in the Eastern U.S(yea that sounds familiar). Had a model not even shown an East coast trough it would still be plausible because of the current NAO and PNA readings. Strong -NAO meaning that frequent troughs are possible on the East coast. +PNA meaning that ridiging in the west or midwest is a common occurence. So that all makes sense. Most models I have seen still take Fabian towards the northern Bahamas AND pass it south of the famed benchmark of 20N or less at 60W. So Obxhurricane this is not just plain enthusiasm to be pysched on an historic storm, this is a historic setup provided with a strong analog of 1960 and a system that has taken the developmental stages of Donna back in 1960. My thinking is such that the system becomes a stronger hurricane(strongER, not just plain strong) and moves towards the Bahamas just south of the benchmark along its way. Then the trough moves in and begins to lift Fabian slowly north(i say slowly beause thre will be high pressures building to its north that will not only push it inland possibly, but also suppress its northward momentum. Couple that with a strong ridge in the Midwest that is trying to push slowly east and the tropical system is caught in the crossfire.

[Stormchaser16]

O and Duck...... i said PASS Ne of of the lesser antilles........ not that its going to move in a NE direction.

[GalvestonDuck]

O and Duck...... i said PASS Ne of of the lesser antilles........ not that its going to move in a NE direction.

You had to be referring to Fabian then, right?

[Stormchaser16]

That is correct, i am talking about fabians position in relation to the Lesser Antilles and Pr.

[Stephanie]

Colin...too early to call. If its like seasons past, it will do that track but be about 200 miles further east!! Bad thing is, if it does that, it will curve back west and hit Jersey dead on

GREAT!!!! :o

Wow Steph, first an earthquake, now a cane?! Might as well move to San Francisco or Galveston to be safe!

...AND a blizzard this winter! WOOOO HOOOO!

[JCT777]

Steph - Earthquakes, hurricanes and blizzards - oh my! :o I say skip the first two and go right to the blizzard.

Fabian will certainly need to be watched closely, and IMO is an East Coast threat. Not that it is definite or even probable, but it certainly is POSSIBLE that Fabian affects the East Coast.

[isobar]

I'm with you John ... give me a monster nor'easter anyday.

I must agree that Donna took a track for the record books, making multiple landfalls and never losing hurricane strength. A storm like that today would be devastating to say the least.
Hoping Fabian fishes safely out to sea.