Clsoe to making a FINAL call on Fabian AKA DONNA

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
obxhurricane
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 178
Joined: Tue Aug 26, 2003 7:08 pm
Location: Outer Banks of North Carolina
Contact:

#21 Postby obxhurricane » Thu Aug 28, 2003 8:02 pm

Stormchaser: I certainly admire your enthusiasm with regards to Fabian, and the famed storm Donna. I, like you, have a fascination with Donna. It was a powerful storm, and it took a track unlike any other(with regards to how many states it affected).

Fabian, however, is way too far away to put any historical spin on it's eventual track. There are simply too many variables at play. IMO...Fabian will be located roughly halfway between PR and Bermud in 5-6 days. Thereafter it is impossible to say what may happen. Pure speculation at this point is for recurvature somewhere around 65W. But that's assuming the ridge will break down.

In any case, this will be fun to watch, and I will be hoping for something a little closer than recurve at 65...if you know what I mean. :wink:
0 likes   

User avatar
ChaserUK
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 630
Joined: Thu Aug 28, 2003 4:10 pm
Location: Jersey, Channel Islands
Contact:

#22 Postby ChaserUK » Thu Aug 28, 2003 8:11 pm

Thankx Obxhurricane - I need calming down sometimes!!!! Historical tracks howvere very hard to go by, so many variables. That said recurve at 65 - possible extratropical for the UK?
0 likes   

obxhurricane
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 178
Joined: Tue Aug 26, 2003 7:08 pm
Location: Outer Banks of North Carolina
Contact:

#23 Postby obxhurricane » Thu Aug 28, 2003 8:21 pm

ChaserUK: I wouldn't hop on an airplane just yet. But if you do decide to come you're more than welcome to visit the Outer Banks...we'd love to have ya.

More than likely Fabian would be 10 plus days away from having any impact on the East coast...and like we already said...that's not very certain.
0 likes   

User avatar
Stephanie
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 23843
Age: 63
Joined: Thu Feb 06, 2003 9:53 am
Location: Glassboro, NJ

#24 Postby Stephanie » Thu Aug 28, 2003 8:28 pm

Steve H. wrote:Colin...too early to call. If its like seasons past, it will do that track but be about 200 miles further east!! Bad thing is, if it does that, it will curve back west and hit Jersey dead on :lol:



GREAT!!!! :o
0 likes   

User avatar
isobar
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2002
Joined: Thu Feb 06, 2003 9:05 am
Location: Louisville, KY

#25 Postby isobar » Fri Aug 29, 2003 10:39 am

Stephanie wrote:
Steve H. wrote:Colin...too early to call. If its like seasons past, it will do that track but be about 200 miles further east!! Bad thing is, if it does that, it will curve back west and hit Jersey dead on :lol:


GREAT!!!! :o


Wow Steph, first an earthquake, now a cane?! Might as well move to San Francisco or Galveston to be safe! :wink:
0 likes   

Stormchaser16
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1013
Joined: Thu Aug 21, 2003 10:25 pm
Location: NW Jersey
Contact:

#26 Postby Stormchaser16 » Fri Aug 29, 2003 11:43 am

ObxHurricane-To understand what i am saying about Donna you need to understand the analog to 1960. It's been talked about for a long time now. The latest piece of evidence to it was Ignacio in the Epac. Im not even remotely calling for a storm the magnitude of Donna but nonetheless a track and setup similar to that of Donna. For example. The 500 MB readings in the U.S back when Donna was around showed a strong ridge in hte midwest(as is forecast to occur). As well as a sharp trough in the Eastern U.S(yea that sounds familiar). Had a model not even shown an East coast trough it would still be plausible because of the current NAO and PNA readings. Strong -NAO meaning that frequent troughs are possible on the East coast. +PNA meaning that ridiging in the west or midwest is a common occurence. So that all makes sense. Most models I have seen still take Fabian towards the northern Bahamas AND pass it south of the famed benchmark of 20N or less at 60W. So Obxhurricane this is not just plain enthusiasm to be pysched on an historic storm, this is a historic setup provided with a strong analog of 1960 and a system that has taken the developmental stages of Donna back in 1960. My thinking is such that the system becomes a stronger hurricane(strongER, not just plain strong) and moves towards the Bahamas just south of the benchmark along its way. Then the trough moves in and begins to lift Fabian slowly north(i say slowly beause thre will be high pressures building to its north that will not only push it inland possibly, but also suppress its northward momentum. Couple that with a strong ridge in the Midwest that is trying to push slowly east and the tropical system is caught in the crossfire.
0 likes   

Stormchaser16
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1013
Joined: Thu Aug 21, 2003 10:25 pm
Location: NW Jersey
Contact:

#27 Postby Stormchaser16 » Fri Aug 29, 2003 11:44 am

O and Duck...... i said PASS Ne of of the lesser antilles........ not that its going to move in a NE direction.
0 likes   

GalvestonDuck
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 15941
Age: 57
Joined: Fri Oct 11, 2002 8:11 am
Location: Galveston, oh Galveston (And yeah, it's a barrier island. Wanna make something of it?)

#28 Postby GalvestonDuck » Fri Aug 29, 2003 12:09 pm

Stormchaser16 wrote:O and Duck...... i said PASS Ne of of the lesser antilles........ not that its going to move in a NE direction.


You had to be referring to Fabian then, right?
0 likes   

Stormchaser16
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1013
Joined: Thu Aug 21, 2003 10:25 pm
Location: NW Jersey
Contact:

#29 Postby Stormchaser16 » Fri Aug 29, 2003 12:27 pm

That is correct, i am talking about fabians position in relation to the Lesser Antilles and Pr.
0 likes   

User avatar
Stephanie
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 23843
Age: 63
Joined: Thu Feb 06, 2003 9:53 am
Location: Glassboro, NJ

#30 Postby Stephanie » Fri Aug 29, 2003 12:46 pm

isobar wrote:
Stephanie wrote:
Steve H. wrote:Colin...too early to call. If its like seasons past, it will do that track but be about 200 miles further east!! Bad thing is, if it does that, it will curve back west and hit Jersey dead on :lol:


GREAT!!!! :o


Wow Steph, first an earthquake, now a cane?! Might as well move to San Francisco or Galveston to be safe! :wink:


...AND a blizzard this winter! WOOOO HOOOO!
0 likes   

User avatar
JCT777
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 6251
Joined: Mon Oct 14, 2002 9:21 am
Location: Spring Mount, PA
Contact:

#31 Postby JCT777 » Fri Aug 29, 2003 1:35 pm

Steph - Earthquakes, hurricanes and blizzards - oh my! :o I say skip the first two and go right to the blizzard. 8-)

Fabian will certainly need to be watched closely, and IMO is an East Coast threat. Not that it is definite or even probable, but it certainly is POSSIBLE that Fabian affects the East Coast.
0 likes   

User avatar
isobar
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2002
Joined: Thu Feb 06, 2003 9:05 am
Location: Louisville, KY

#32 Postby isobar » Fri Aug 29, 2003 2:13 pm

I'm with you John ... give me a monster nor'easter anyday. 8-)

I must agree that Donna took a track for the record books, making multiple landfalls and never losing hurricane strength. A storm like that today would be devastating to say the least.
Hoping Fabian fishes safely out to sea.
0 likes   


Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: TomballEd and 31 guests