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BigA wrote:I haven't seen Irene look this good on radar for a long time. How warm is Pamlico Sound? And yeah, took a solid jog to the NE right there.
I think wobble watching is OK when a storm is over land.
HurricaneBelle wrote:BigA wrote:I haven't seen Irene look this good on radar for a long time. How warm is Pamlico Sound? And yeah, took a solid jog to the NE right there.
I think wobble watching is OK when a storm is over land.
She's pulling a Fay by becoming better organized over low-lying land near water, with the frictional effects that tighten the core more than offsetting the fact she's inland.
maxintensity wrote:Please keep posting this it helps determine movement a lottolakram wrote:Looking better and looks to be more NE movement now.
Latest saved radar loop:
Areyoukidding wrote:WxGuy1 wrote:The unexpected left-of-track motion means that Irene will spend more time over land before emerging off the far southeastern VA coast .
It looks like Irene is right on track. Wobble watching will always be an issue.
AdamFirst wrote:Folks in the Hampton Roads area are blowing this storm off now, it seems like...the core of the storm is still hours away...
As a recently retired Fire/EMS Lieutenant it has actually been pretty uplifting to see so many people taking this storm and there preparations so seriously...Hurricane Isabel, TS Ernesto & the Nor'Easter of 2009...taught everyone in Hampton Roads some valuable lessons about what is possible. Fortunately, what's possible and what's probable are often two different things. I think its possible we could see flooding/wind damage WORSE than Isabel...but its not probable. We prepped/planned for an Isabel based on local mets and info...Just gotta wait it out now.
WxGuy1 wrote:The unexpected left-of-track motion means that Irene will spend more time over land before emerging off the far southeastern VA coast (or maybe nearer the NC/VA coast if it resumes a bit more east-of-N/NNE track) en route to NJ and other northeastern U.S. states. As we know, a center over land is not conducive to intensification, and it typically results in weakening. It stands to reason, then, that more time over land will result in more weakening that previously anticipated. We don't really know that much about how quickly storms can/do weaken over land, and it's not THAT far from the water now, so I wouldn't expect it to fall apart completely. Once it gets off the NJ coast, it will no longer have much access to very warm, hurricane-supporting water temperatures; current buoy measurements show water temperatures <25 C from NJ northward.
In addition, I suspect that part of the reason why the response now is different from the response from Gloria is because (a) there are hungry lawyers around, (b) there are other politicians and political groups just waiting to jump on any public official who makes any mistake that results in unnecessary injury, destruction, or death, (c) just because a response happened in the past doesn't mean that it was the best course of action and that it should be repeated exactly next time when a similar-but-different situation occurs. In the realm of public safety, it's almost always better to be safe than sorry. I saw "almost always" because there are times when over-warning or exaggeration of threats can leads to increased complacency and inaction the next time a similar forecast is made if the original event did not live up to expectations (think of the "cry wolf" situation). We hear about over-warning and personal irresponsibility a lot in the more hurricane-prone areas when it comes to the excuses people give for not following safety protocol ("We get these all the time, and it's never this bad. Come emergency rescue me now!").
Code: Select all
Product: Air Force Temp Drop (Dropsonde) Message (UZNT13 KNHC)
Transmitted: 27th day of the month at 17:02Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 303)
Storm Number: 09
Storm Name: Irene (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 33
Observation Number: 07
Part A...
Date: Near the closest hour of 17Z on the 27th day of the month
Highest Mandatory Level For Which Wind Was Reported: 850mb
Coordinates: 35.3N 76.5W
Location: 32 miles (52 km) to the WNW (294°) from Ocracoke, NC, USA.
Marsden Square: 116 (About)
Level Geo. Height Air Temp. Dew Point Wind Direction Wind Speed
950mb (28.05 inHg) Sea Level (Surface) 25.4°C (77.7°F) 24.9°C (76.8°F) 85° (from the E) 6 knots (7 mph)
1000mb -454m (-1490 ft) Other data not available.
925mb 236m (774 ft) 24.0°C (75.2°F) 23.7°C (74.7°F) 70° (from the ENE) 7 knots (8 mph)
850mb 977m (3,205 ft) 22.0°C (71.6°F) 21.1°C (70.0°F) 110° (from the ESE) 6 knots (7 mph)
700mb 2,658m (8,720 ft) Height extrapolated since sonde was released within 25mbs below this level.
Information About Radiosonde:
- Launch Time: 16:34Z
- About Sonde: A descending radiosonde tracked automatically by satellite navigation with no solar or infrared correction.
Remarks Section...
Splash Location: 35.33N 76.51W
Splash Time: 16:37Z
Release Location: 35.33N 76.5W View map)
Release Time: 16:34:12Z
Splash Location: 35.33N 76.51W (
Splash Time: 16:37:23Z
Mean Boundary Level Wind (mean wind in the lowest 500 geopotential meters of the sounding):
- Wind Direction: 80° (from the E)
- Wind Speed: 7 knots (8 mph)
Deep Layer Mean Wind (average wind over the depth of the sounding):
- Wind Direction: 115° (from the ESE)
- Wind Speed: 5 knots (6 mph)
- Depth of Sounding: From 724mb to 949mb
Average Wind Over Lowest Available 150 geopotential meters (gpm) of the sounding:
- Lowest 150m: 158 gpm - 8 gpm (518 geo. feet - 26 geo. feet)
- Wind Direction: 85° (from the E)
- Wind Speed: 7 knots (8 mph)
Sounding Software Version: AEV 20802
Part B: Data For Significant Levels...
Significant Temperature And Relative Humidity Levels...
Level Air Temperature Dew Point
950mb (Surface) 25.4°C (77.7°F) 24.9°C (76.8°F)
850mb 22.0°C (71.6°F) 21.1°C (70.0°F)
724mb 17.4°C (63.3°F) 17.4°C (63.3°F)
Significant Wind Levels...
Level Wind Direction Wind Speed
950mb (Surface) 85° (from the E) 6 knots (7 mph)
881mb 70° (from the ENE) 10 knots (12 mph)
850mb 110° (from the ESE) 6 knots (7 mph)
724mb 185° (from the S) 10 knots (12 mph)
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