ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

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Re: ATL: IRENE - Hurricane - Discussion

#8921 Postby northjaxpro » Sat Aug 27, 2011 11:55 am

BigA wrote:I haven't seen Irene look this good on radar for a long time. How warm is Pamlico Sound? And yeah, took a solid jog to the NE right there.

I think wobble watching is OK when a storm is over land.


Yeah, it looks for now that Irene's COC has resumed a more N-NE turn, which would keep her hugging the coast all the way up should this motion header continues.
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#8922 Postby Dave » Sat Aug 27, 2011 11:56 am

Image
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Hurricane - Discussion

#8923 Postby northjaxpro » Sat Aug 27, 2011 11:57 am

HurricaneBelle wrote:
BigA wrote:I haven't seen Irene look this good on radar for a long time. How warm is Pamlico Sound? And yeah, took a solid jog to the NE right there.

I think wobble watching is OK when a storm is over land.


She's pulling a Fay by becoming better organized over low-lying land near water, with the frictional effects that tighten the core more than offsetting the fact she's inland.


Yep. Dr. Knabb just explained this effect a short time ago.
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Hurricane - Discussion

#8924 Postby tolakram » Sat Aug 27, 2011 12:01 pm

I tell ya, never seen anything like it. A couple of more wobbles and Irene is back over the ocean.

another saved radar loop
Image
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Hurricane - Discussion

#8925 Postby summersquall » Sat Aug 27, 2011 12:01 pm

maxintensity wrote:
tolakram wrote:Looking better and looks to be more NE movement now.

Latest saved radar loop:
Please keep posting this it helps determine movement a lot


I second that. OK, done with wobble watching on longer range radar. Thanks.
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#8926 Postby Dave » Sat Aug 27, 2011 12:02 pm

966
URNT15 KNHC 271700
AF303 3309A IRENE HDOB 16 20110827
165100 3442N 07544W 7242 02583 9747 +134 +130 221076 077 /// /// 03
165130 3441N 07542W 7237 02591 9750 +134 +125 219075 075 /// /// 03
165200 3440N 07541W 7245 02589 9760 +130 +122 217076 077 /// /// 03
165230 3439N 07540W 7243 02595 9767 +129 //// 215076 077 /// /// 05
165300 3438N 07539W 7240 02598 9771 +126 //// 215075 076 /// /// 05
165330 3437N 07537W 7244 02600 9776 +126 //// 217076 077 /// /// 05
165400 3435N 07536W 7242 02603 9782 +126 +126 218076 077 /// /// 03
165430 3434N 07535W 7241 02611 9787 +125 +122 219079 079 /// /// 03
165500 3433N 07534W 7241 02616 9787 +130 +117 220080 080 /// /// 03
165530 3432N 07532W 7246 02612 9798 +123 +116 217079 080 /// /// 03
165600 3431N 07531W 7237 02627 9804 +122 +112 217079 080 /// /// 03
165630 3430N 07530W 7240 02626 9807 +122 +110 215078 078 /// /// 03
165700 3429N 07529W 7245 02624 9814 +121 +118 215079 080 /// /// 03
165730 3428N 07527W 7236 02637 9813 +125 +113 217078 078 /// /// 03
165800 3426N 07526W 7248 02629 9821 +123 +117 217077 077 /// /// 03
165830 3425N 07525W 7240 02643 9823 +123 +119 218076 077 /// /// 03
165900 3424N 07524W 7242 02642 9824 +127 +117 219075 075 /// /// 03
165930 3423N 07522W 7240 02650 9825 +130 +117 219076 076 /// /// 03
170000 3422N 07521W 7241 02650 9829 +129 +116 218076 077 /// /// 03
170030 3421N 07520W 7241 02655 9832 +130 +116 219074 076 /// /// 03
$$
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Re: Re:

#8927 Postby WxGuy1 » Sat Aug 27, 2011 12:03 pm

Areyoukidding wrote:
WxGuy1 wrote:The unexpected left-of-track motion means that Irene will spend more time over land before emerging off the far southeastern VA coast .


It looks like Irene is right on track. Wobble watching will always be an issue.


It is left of the track from some of the official forecasts from yesterday and/or a couple of days ago. I almost always ignore wobbles (and wobble watching when the storm is well out at sea annoys me because there ends up being a myriad of posts about osmething that likely will have no meaningful results), so when I'm talking about a left-of-track motion, I'm referring to a longer-term jog (>4 hrs) that brought Irene a little more inland than some of the NHC forecasts from the past 1-2 day. Wobble watching only is worthwhile if the wobble directly impacts you, in my opinion. In this case, any wobble actually could make an appreciable difference (one way or the other) for those in it's path. Right now, that's not a whole lot of people. Later today and tomorrow, that will be a whole lot of people (as Irene moves along some very populated areas).
Last edited by WxGuy1 on Sat Aug 27, 2011 12:04 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Hurricane - Discussion

#8928 Postby Fego » Sat Aug 27, 2011 12:04 pm

May be that small watered area help her to close or cover the eye with some convection. Take it as a question. :roll:

edit: uuppss, I didn't see what northjaxpro just explained.
Last edited by Fego on Sat Aug 27, 2011 12:06 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Hurricane - Discussion

#8929 Postby sponger » Sat Aug 27, 2011 12:04 pm

Great surf today for North Florida. 6-8 foot glassy clean conditions from the offsh
ore winds. Thank you Irene!
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#8930 Postby Dave » Sat Aug 27, 2011 12:06 pm

Image

Just a note here...my servers are located in Boston MA. Got a call from the tech team a few minutes ago and they have the backup generators & other backup power supplies on standby in case things turn bad for them so this server should keep on moving unless there's a breakdown in the internet pipelines due to Irene. Will do what we can to keep feeding pictures out to all of you.
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Re:

#8931 Postby DTMEDIC » Sat Aug 27, 2011 12:06 pm

AdamFirst wrote:Folks in the Hampton Roads area are blowing this storm off now, it seems like...the core of the storm is still hours away...

JMO, but I don't really think so...I've seen tons of serious preparation here in our local areas and surrounding jurisdicitions...but right now there's nothing to do but hunker down, watch, wait and hope the preparations you've made are sufficient...oh...and keep praying! :D As a recently retired Fire/EMS Lieutenant it has actually been pretty uplifting to see so many people taking this storm and there preparations so seriously...Hurricane Isabel, TS Ernesto & the Nor'Easter of 2009...taught everyone in Hampton Roads some valuable lessons about what is possible. Fortunately, what's possible and what's probable are often two different things. I think its possible we could see flooding/wind damage WORSE than Isabel...but its not probable. We prepped/planned for an Isabel based on local mets and info...Just gotta wait it out now.
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Re:

#8932 Postby ncweatherwizard » Sat Aug 27, 2011 12:08 pm

WxGuy1 wrote:The unexpected left-of-track motion means that Irene will spend more time over land before emerging off the far southeastern VA coast (or maybe nearer the NC/VA coast if it resumes a bit more east-of-N/NNE track) en route to NJ and other northeastern U.S. states. As we know, a center over land is not conducive to intensification, and it typically results in weakening. It stands to reason, then, that more time over land will result in more weakening that previously anticipated. We don't really know that much about how quickly storms can/do weaken over land, and it's not THAT far from the water now, so I wouldn't expect it to fall apart completely. Once it gets off the NJ coast, it will no longer have much access to very warm, hurricane-supporting water temperatures; current buoy measurements show water temperatures <25 C from NJ northward.

In addition, I suspect that part of the reason why the response now is different from the response from Gloria is because (a) there are hungry lawyers around, (b) there are other politicians and political groups just waiting to jump on any public official who makes any mistake that results in unnecessary injury, destruction, or death, (c) just because a response happened in the past doesn't mean that it was the best course of action and that it should be repeated exactly next time when a similar-but-different situation occurs. In the realm of public safety, it's almost always better to be safe than sorry. I saw "almost always" because there are times when over-warning or exaggeration of threats can leads to increased complacency and inaction the next time a similar forecast is made if the original event did not live up to expectations (think of the "cry wolf" situation). We hear about over-warning and personal irresponsibility a lot in the more hurricane-prone areas when it comes to the excuses people give for not following safety protocol ("We get these all the time, and it's never this bad. Come emergency rescue me now!").


Definitely can't say this was unexpected. Well within the track uncertainty. Also, Irene is currently tracking over an area over which is shouldn't weaken terribly much due to land interaction. In addition to the sound water, the land in this area is quite swampy. Not ideal, but probably good enough for a Cat 1 to last a little longer than usual. Storms have actually developed in this area (i.e. 1997 Danny).
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#8933 Postby Dave » Sat Aug 27, 2011 12:12 pm

000
UZNT13 KNHC 271702
XXAA 77178 99353 70765 11656 99950 25405 08506 00954 ///// /////
92236 24003 07007 85977 22009 11006 88999 77999
31313 09608 81634
51515 10190 70658
61616 AF303 3309A IRENE OB 07
62626 SPL 3533N07651W 1637 MBL WND 08007 AEV 20802 DLM WND 11505
949724 WL150 08507 083 REL 3533N07650W 163412 SPG 3533N07651W 163
723 =
XXBB 77178 99353 70765 11656 00950 25405 11850 22009 22724 17400
21212 00950 08506 11881 07010 22850 11006 33724 18510
31313 09608 81634
51515 10190 70658
61616 AF303 3309A IRENE OB 07
62626 SPL 3533N07651W 1637 MBL WND 08007 AEV 20802 DLM WND 11505
949724 WL150 08507 083 REL 3533N07650W 163412 SPG 3533N07651W 163
723 =
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#8934 Postby Dave » Sat Aug 27, 2011 12:13 pm

DECODED DROPSONDE OBS 7

Code: Select all

Product: Air Force Temp Drop (Dropsonde) Message (UZNT13 KNHC)
Transmitted: 27th day of the month at 17:02Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 303)
Storm Number: 09
Storm Name: Irene (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 33
Observation Number: 07

Part A...


Date: Near the closest hour of 17Z on the 27th day of the month
Highest Mandatory Level For Which Wind Was Reported: 850mb
Coordinates: 35.3N 76.5W
Location: 32 miles (52 km) to the WNW (294°) from Ocracoke, NC, USA.
Marsden Square: 116 (About)

Level Geo. Height Air Temp. Dew Point Wind Direction Wind Speed
950mb (28.05 inHg) Sea Level (Surface) 25.4°C (77.7°F) 24.9°C (76.8°F) 85° (from the E) 6 knots (7 mph)
1000mb -454m (-1490 ft) Other data not available.
925mb 236m (774 ft) 24.0°C (75.2°F) 23.7°C (74.7°F) 70° (from the ENE) 7 knots (8 mph)
850mb 977m (3,205 ft) 22.0°C (71.6°F) 21.1°C (70.0°F) 110° (from the ESE) 6 knots (7 mph)
700mb 2,658m (8,720 ft) Height extrapolated since sonde was released within 25mbs below this level.

Information About Radiosonde:
- Launch Time: 16:34Z
- About Sonde: A descending radiosonde tracked automatically by satellite navigation with no solar or infrared correction.

Remarks Section...


Splash Location: 35.33N 76.51W
Splash Time: 16:37Z

Release Location: 35.33N 76.5W View map)
Release Time: 16:34:12Z

Splash Location: 35.33N 76.51W (
Splash Time: 16:37:23Z

Mean Boundary Level Wind (mean wind in the lowest 500 geopotential meters of the sounding):
- Wind Direction: 80° (from the E)
- Wind Speed: 7 knots (8 mph)

Deep Layer Mean Wind (average wind over the depth of the sounding):
- Wind Direction: 115° (from the ESE)
- Wind Speed: 5 knots (6 mph)
- Depth of Sounding: From 724mb to 949mb

Average Wind Over Lowest Available 150 geopotential meters (gpm) of the sounding:
- Lowest 150m: 158 gpm - 8 gpm (518 geo. feet - 26 geo. feet)
- Wind Direction: 85° (from the E)
- Wind Speed: 7 knots (8 mph)

Sounding Software Version: AEV 20802


Part B: Data For Significant Levels...


Significant Temperature And Relative Humidity Levels...
Level Air Temperature Dew Point
950mb (Surface) 25.4°C (77.7°F) 24.9°C (76.8°F)
850mb 22.0°C (71.6°F) 21.1°C (70.0°F)
724mb 17.4°C (63.3°F) 17.4°C (63.3°F)

Significant Wind Levels...
Level Wind Direction Wind Speed
950mb (Surface) 85° (from the E) 6 knots (7 mph)
881mb 70° (from the ENE) 10 knots (12 mph)
850mb 110° (from the ESE) 6 knots (7 mph)
724mb 185° (from the S) 10 knots (12 mph)


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Re: ATL: IRENE - Hurricane - Discussion

#8935 Postby cheezyWXguy » Sat Aug 27, 2011 12:13 pm

So what kind of surge can we expect in nyc and long island?
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#8936 Postby Dave » Sat Aug 27, 2011 12:14 pm

770
URNT15 KNHC 271710
AF303 3309A IRENE HDOB 17 20110827
170100 3420N 07518W 7241 02659 9834 +130 +116 219072 073 /// /// 03
170130 3420N 07518W 7241 02659 9837 +130 +115 217073 073 /// /// 03
170200 3417N 07516W 7240 02665 9842 +130 +115 218072 073 /// /// 03
170230 3416N 07515W 7242 02665 9845 +128 +115 218071 072 /// /// 03
170300 3415N 07513W 7240 02670 9851 +125 +117 218070 071 /// /// 03
170330 3414N 07512W 7241 02674 9857 +123 +117 218071 072 /// /// 03
170400 3413N 07511W 7241 02673 9858 +124 +117 217069 070 /// /// 03
170430 3412N 07510W 7244 02676 9862 +125 +117 218068 069 /// /// 03
170500 3410N 07508W 7241 02680 9862 +125 +119 218068 069 /// /// 03
170530 3409N 07507W 7242 02683 9867 +124 //// 217067 068 /// /// 05
170600 3408N 07506W 7236 02690 9873 +120 //// 217066 066 /// /// 05
170630 3407N 07504W 7237 02692 9877 +119 //// 217069 070 /// /// 05
170700 3406N 07503W 7241 02690 9879 +120 +117 218071 072 /// /// 03
170730 3405N 07502W 7241 02695 9882 +120 +112 217071 071 /// /// 03
170800 3404N 07501W 7246 02688 9886 +120 +116 216070 071 /// /// 03
170830 3402N 07459W 7238 02700 9891 +118 +118 218069 069 /// /// 03
170900 3401N 07458W 7244 02696 9895 +118 //// 219068 068 /// /// 05
170930 3400N 07457W 7241 02698 9898 +115 //// 219067 067 /// /// 05
171000 3359N 07455W 7236 02716 9906 +115 //// 217067 068 /// /// 05
171030 3400N 07453W 7243 02709 9908 +115 //// 215066 067 /// /// 05
$$
;
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Hurricane - Discussion

#8937 Postby tolakram » Sat Aug 27, 2011 12:19 pm

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#8938 Postby Dave » Sat Aug 27, 2011 12:21 pm

910
URNT15 KNHC 271720
AF303 3309A IRENE HDOB 18 20110827
171100 3402N 07453W 7238 02707 9903 +115 //// 213063 063 /// /// 05
171130 3404N 07454W 7239 02704 9895 +118 +114 211065 067 /// /// 03
171200 3406N 07454W 7241 02697 9891 +118 +114 210067 068 /// /// 03
171230 3408N 07454W 7241 02694 9888 +117 //// 209067 068 /// /// 05
171300 3411N 07454W 7241 02690 9881 +120 +117 210067 068 /// /// 03
171330 3413N 07454W 7241 02689 9878 +120 +116 209069 070 /// /// 03
171400 3415N 07455W 7241 02687 9876 +120 +119 209069 070 /// /// 03
171430 3417N 07455W 7244 02681 9873 +120 +116 208070 071 /// /// 03
171500 3420N 07455W 7238 02683 9870 +120 +118 207071 071 /// /// 03
171530 3422N 07455W 7248 02672 9868 +121 +118 206070 070 /// /// 03
171600 3424N 07455W 7238 02679 9863 +120 +119 206070 070 /// /// 03
171630 3426N 07455W 7245 02669 9860 +120 +119 204070 071 /// /// 03
171700 3429N 07455W 7245 02664 9857 +121 +120 201070 070 /// /// 03
171730 3431N 07455W 7241 02667 9854 +120 +118 201073 074 /// /// 03
171800 3433N 07455W 7244 02660 9850 +122 +117 202073 073 /// /// 03
171830 3436N 07455W 7240 02665 9846 +125 +116 201073 073 /// /// 03
171900 3438N 07455W 7241 02660 9846 +122 +117 200074 075 /// /// 03
171930 3440N 07455W 7240 02659 9840 +125 +115 200076 076 /// /// 03
172000 3443N 07455W 7242 02657 9834 +129 +113 200076 077 /// /// 03
172030 3445N 07455W 7241 02652 9828 +130 +113 198076 076 /// /// 03
$$
;
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#8939 Postby Dave » Sat Aug 27, 2011 12:23 pm

Image
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Hurricane - Discussion

#8940 Postby funster » Sat Aug 27, 2011 12:24 pm

So much convection on the west side of Irene. Will probably be lots of inland winds/flooding http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/rb-l.jpg
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