Global model runs discussion

[LaBreeze]

does it recurve or could it be a threat to the east coast?... interesting.

Probably recurve is my guess.

[cycloneye]

Surprised nobody posted the 00z ECMWF.

[rockyman]

The Euro still SLOWLY develops an area of low pressure down in the Bay of Campeche, moving toward the north central Gulf by Day 10. The system should be festering in the BOC this weekend

[HurricaneWarning92]

Surprised nobody posted the 00z ECMWF.

is it me or run after run, both the ECMWF and GFS have it closer to the U.S?

[Macrocane]

FIMY 0z is much more east with the Atlantic system but it also has a tropical cyclone in the GOM at 240 hours although more west than the Euro system:

[CourierPR]

Surprised nobody posted the 00z ECMWF.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... !chart.gif[]

is it me or run after run, both the ECMWF and GFS have it closer to the U.S?

Bastardi tweets that this system is the next east coast threat.

[HurricaneWarning92]

Well thats interesting cause the models have it as a recurve right now.

[Jevo]

8 days out on the Euro



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[RL3AO]

Is this pouch 21L (just off the African coast)?

[cycloneye]

Is this pouch 21L (just off the African coast)?

Yes is that one.

[Adoquín]

8 days out on the Euro

http://img155.imageshack.us/img155/1079/00zeurotropical500mbslp.gif

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closer and closer to the Leewards. I think latest GFS run places a strong vorticity center at 20N 62W Luis near such dates. Not an encouraging trend but tons of time to watch.

[Adoquín]

sorry about the image reload, I forgot.

[Rgv20]

Looks like the GOM is going to get interesting as we head until Labor Day. 0zECMWF operational has a TC in ten day moving until Mobile and the 0zECMWF Ensembles show a lot of possibilities with regards to track of this potential TC.

This is the 0zECMWF Ensemble Forecast Map for 10 days. The dark shading shows that some of the ensembles favor a Western Gulf Threat.

[LaBreeze]

Looks like the GOM is going to get interesting as we head until Labor Day. 0zECMWF operational has a TC in ten day moving until Mobile and the 0zECMWF Ensembles show a lot of possibilities with regards to track of this potential TC.

This is the 0zECMWF Ensemble Forecast Map for 10 days. The dark shading shows that some of the ensembles favor a Western Gulf Threat.

We certainly can use some rainfall and something to cool those outrageous temperatures.

[BigA]

One thing I noticed from the most recent GFS run is that it has a hurricane that originated in the western Caribbean striking the northern Gulf Coast at the end of the run. While this means little about any storm, it does mean that this particular model forecasts that the death ridge will have moved or weakened enough to allow storm tracks northward toward the northern gulf coast. Other models seem to also indicate the end of the death ridge's regime.

[gatorcane]

Interesting feature behind the big fish storm the models are latching onto...look as it stay relatively weak moving west north of the Leewards

18Z GFS long-range, 372 hours:

[HurricaneFan]

So what are the models saying about the Tropical Wave still in West Africa in terms of track and intensity?
Will it follow TD10 expected track out to sea(for now) or will move more west toward the Caribbean?

[Patrick99]

So what are the models saying about the Tropical Wave still in West Africa in terms of track and intensity?
Will it follow TD10 expected track out to sea(for now) or will move more west toward the Caribbean?

That's a big wave pounding in after TD12. Any models showing anything doing with it?

[cycloneye]

Long range GFS has this.



Saved image.

[HurricaneWarning92]

[quote="cycloneye"]Long range GFS has this.

http://img856.imageshack.us/img856/5386 ... wndpre.gif[/img]

Saved image.

i think thats the one that is coming offshore right behind Katia.