ATL: KATIA - Post Tropical - Discussion

[BigA]

This map is fallible at times, but it shows the highest 850 mb vorticity as a good bit south of 10 North.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=

[BigA]

The GOES floater on NHC site "East Atlantic" is flashing it looks like, making it difficult to find the center.

Anybody have any good visible loop links for this system?

The ramsdis imagery doesn't have a good closeup anymore, but the overall system is visible on the Africa and east Atlantic loop

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... opical.asp

[wxman57]

The ramsdis imagery doesn't have a good closeup anymore, but the overall system is visible on the Africa and east Atlantic loop

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... opical.asp

I can't find it on any image on that rammb website. The floater image is of the convection east of 92L. Here's a shot from my workstation. It does look like the ridge to its north may be weak enough to allow for it to track north of the Caribbean. Won't guarantee it 100% yet though. I'd put the center near 10.8N/23.7W.

[Extratropical94]

Code Red - 70%

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED ABOUT 400 MILES SOUTH
OF THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR
CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW...AND A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD AT 10 T0 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[Vortex]

The trends the last 24 hours or so have been a bit further west...Regardless, looks to be an intense cane down the road.. Looking forward to the ECM as well... My early call is 21/60...

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

Latest TAFB forecast continues to move the system at a low latitude toward the west
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atl ... BW_sm3.gif

[Vortex]

Nogaps 12Z loop...


https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

[HurricaneWarning92]

Nogaps 12Z loop...


https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

wow it shifted noticeably westwards...

[painkillerr]

With every passing hour without gaining latitude, my concerns with 92L grow.

[wxman57]

A good argument for this disturbance gaining latitude more quickly than the pre-Irene disturbance would be the general low pressure to its north. For Irene, the SAL was VERY strong due to a massive high to its north. Not so with this disturbance:



Here's a shot I saved from August 17th. That's Irene-to-be around 31W near 11N-12N:

[Scorpion]

Wow no SAL to speak of. If it forms south of 9 N then this could be a huge problem for the islands.

[T'Bonz]

Your images aren't working. They say not to hotlink them.

[SFLcane]

Nogaps 12Z loop...


https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

Hmmm...Thats pretty interesting to say the least thankfully its the nogaps but i have a feeling models in time will trend further westward.

[tolakram]

EUMETSAT full disc, low res

http://oiswww.eumetsat.org/IPPS/html/MS ... /index.htm

Zoom in a bit (shift+click) then scroll to center 92L and select 12 images for loop.

Latest

[painkillerr]

[quote="wxman57"]A good argument for this disturbance gaining latitude more quickly than the pre-Irene disturbance would be the general low pressure to its north. For Irene, the SAL was VERY strong due to a massive high to its north. Not so with this disturbance:

Wxman57, If I read you correctly, the strong SAL over Irene impeded her development until she approached 50w + or -. This is not so with 92L so development is likely to happen sooner (as it is already happenning). My question is, couldn't the high to the north impede the gain in latitude even if the SAL is not so strong?

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
28/1745 UTC 9.9N 22.6W T1.0/1.0 92L

[wxman57]

A good argument for this disturbance gaining latitude more quickly than the pre-Irene disturbance would be the general low pressure to its north. For Irene, the SAL was VERY strong due to a massive high to its north. Not so with this disturbance:

Wxman57, If I read you correctly, the strong SAL over Irene impeded her development until she approached 50w + or -. This is not so with 92L so development is likely to happen sooner (as it is already happenning). My question is, couldn't the high to the north impede the gain in latitude even if the SAL is not so strong?

There isn't much of a high to the north compared to when Irene was tracking west across the Atlantic. The earlier development will also significantly increase the chance of it passing north of the Caribbean and recurving out to sea well east of the U.S. The 12z Euro is in through 144 hours, indicating a path north of the eastern Caribbean with a deep trof in its path just west of Bermuda. That would give it a clear shot to recurve between 55-65W.

[tolakram]

Better link:

http://oiswww.eumetsat.org/IPPS/html/MS ... /index.htm

This is high res and you can shift+click to zoom pretty close.

latest image

[southerngale]

Please upload images before posting them. See this thread.

[SFLcane]

Heading NW out to sea possibly poseing a threat to bermuda on the 12z ECM..