ATL: KATIA - Post Tropical - Discussion

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KWT
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#1641 Postby KWT » Thu Sep 01, 2011 5:04 pm

Yeah the fact that alot of models are suggesting at least a slight bend back does tend to lead to confidence that its on the table. I can understand the NHC sticking with a straight NW for now in the latter part of thier forecasts, but many more runs with that bend back and they'll slowly shift the end of the forecast back west.
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Re:

#1642 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Sep 01, 2011 5:05 pm

DESTRUCTION5 wrote:Anyone wanna tell Jevo hes posting in wrong thread? lol

Think you just did.. lol
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#1643 Postby meriland23 » Thu Sep 01, 2011 5:05 pm

h72
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#1644 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Sep 01, 2011 5:10 pm

well thats new by the gfs.... the ridging move west with her which is whats been happening the last couple which effectively closes the weakens.. and now the low off NC is weaker... at 81 hours she is west and south of the 12z by about 100 miles.
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#1645 Postby Jevo » Thu Sep 01, 2011 5:11 pm

Am i posting in the wrong thread? :ggreen: :cheesy:
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#1646 Postby meriland23 » Thu Sep 01, 2011 5:12 pm

h96
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Re:

#1647 Postby gatorcane » Thu Sep 01, 2011 5:13 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:well thats new by the gfs.... the ridging move west with her which is whats been happening the last couple which effectively closes the weakens.. and now the low off NC is weaker... at 81 hours she is west and south of the 12z by about 100 miles.


Yeah I see that, will it finally bend it west like some the other reliable models? Ridging is building in over top and in tandem as it moves WNW.
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Re: Re:

#1648 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Sep 01, 2011 5:16 pm

gatorcane wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:well thats new by the gfs.... the ridging move west with her which is whats been happening the last couple which effectively closes the weakens.. and now the low off NC is weaker... at 81 hours she is west and south of the 12z by about 100 miles.


Yeah I see that, will it finally bend it west like some the other reliable models? Ridging is building in over top and in tandem as it moves WNW.


yes it is.. that low is finally getting kicked out at 100 hours too.. geez still slower than the other models kicking it out... the run is another trend west so far.. about 100 to 120 miles SW of the 12z run
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#1649 Postby Jevo » Thu Sep 01, 2011 5:18 pm

+96 is looking saucy

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#1650 Postby meriland23 » Thu Sep 01, 2011 5:18 pm

h120
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#1651 Postby HenkL » Thu Sep 01, 2011 5:19 pm

For anyone looking for data about comparing model performance:
http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/

(note: there is nothing there focused on tropical systems alone)
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Re:

#1652 Postby Jevo » Thu Sep 01, 2011 5:19 pm

GFS is deifnitly W of 12z... Question is does she die out before hitting these points.
Last edited by Jevo on Thu Sep 01, 2011 5:27 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#1653 Postby KWT » Thu Sep 01, 2011 5:21 pm

Troughs abit quicker but also not quite as sharp at the moment, looking at the pattern in the E.coast, it still doesn't look that condusive to a landfall...what it does look to me is it gets further west then most of us first thought.

94L should provide enough energy to form its on weak troughing once it heads further north and even if the lower levels get left behind, I think that is waht will sweep up Katia...
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#1654 Postby Jevo » Thu Sep 01, 2011 5:24 pm

Lee connecting with the trough dragging it down into the SE?

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#1655 Postby meriland23 » Thu Sep 01, 2011 5:24 pm

h144

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Re: Re:

#1656 Postby meriland23 » Thu Sep 01, 2011 5:27 pm

Jevo wrote:


I must be slacking.. Meriland took my job :lol: :lol:


haha im sorry :S. Well I thought I would get it out there since I was on the site anyway lol. I guess you can say that faded F button you been talking about gets a break haha.
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#1657 Postby HurricaneWarning92 » Thu Sep 01, 2011 5:27 pm

:uarrow: there we go, the GFS is slowly getting the memo... :lol:
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#1658 Postby KWT » Thu Sep 01, 2011 5:27 pm

Future Lee will likely pump up the ridge somewhat between 60-70W, but the key is how long it takes to get eastwards, once the upper trough that has formed thanks to Lee moves NE around the main upper trough WAY north that should be enough to take it out to sea.

Howver there is enough uncertainty about timing and strength of both 94L and Katia at the moment for everyone to be very cautious now.

IF it takes too long to occur and Katia is further south it could well be a threat...
Last edited by KWT on Thu Sep 01, 2011 5:29 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#1659 Postby AdamFirst » Thu Sep 01, 2011 5:27 pm

Unrelated to Katia, but jeez...that GFS scenario for future 'Lee'...it would be an Allison event all over again.
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Re: ATL: KATIA - Models

#1660 Postby SouthFloridawx » Thu Sep 01, 2011 5:28 pm

This is intended for the models thread. It's the GFS 850vort/500mb heights and 200mb winds

Actually if you look at the loop it's not recurving. It's actually starting to move more westward and there is a ridge building on top of it.

http://tinyurl.com/3etr6u6
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