ATL: KATIA - Post Tropical - Discussion

[meriland23]

Ello people . Back on now, what did I miss? Any real big changes in pattern? Any models in favor with eachother?

[meriland23]

oh btw, here is the 18z gfs updating now.

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLoop.html

[HurricaneRobert]

Andrew turned into garbage and was written off as a threat once.

[blazess556]

18z GFS moving the trough further to the west which lets the Bermuda high expand more to the west.

[fci]

Andrew turned into garbage and was written off as a threat once.

We like to avoid all "A" storm references as much as possible.........

[KWT]

yeah its a little early yet to have total confidence on the track BUT I think its quite likely to still recurve.

Models quite suggestive that the upper trough will dig down enough to turn Katia close to 35N to the NE quite sharply.

[AdamFirst]

Here, have some more Ensemble


12z EURO Ensemble 144hr


Both the GFS and EURO ensembles are either at or south-west of the operationals

[supercane]

moved to model thread

[meriland23]

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... cal180.gif that is too close for comfort.

[floridasun78]

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/18zgfs850300mbsheartropical180.gif that is too close for comfort.

link dont work

[supercane]

Latest microwave:

[supercane]

18Z operational GFS still shows late recurve, though no consistency in latest runs as to when and where it would occur:

[meriland23]

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/18zgfs850300mbsheartropical180.gif that is too close for comfort.

link dont work

Sorry here is what I was looking at

[Tom8]

Katia 2 on the horizont

or two Katias on the horizont ?

[BigA]

More 18Z runs rolling in...some of them concerning.

18Z NOGAPS: Landfall in the Outer banks, then up toward Long Island as a hurricane at 180 hours.

18ZHWRF-Well to the South and west (and faster) than the 12Z run. The 12Z run had it at 28N 66W in 126 hours. This run has it at 27.5N 73W in 126 hours. This is concerning because it means these models see the ridge as building in stronger. If the ridge causes Katia to move so fast that it hits land before the trough comes, or the trough doesn't come when it is predicted, Katia could make landfall. I still think a near miss is most likely, but not likely enough to have great confidence.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[CrazyC83]

I see you on infrared, Katia!

[meriland23]

More 18Z runs rolling in...some of them concerning.

18Z NOGAPS: Landfall in the Outer banks, then up toward Long Island as a hurricane at 180 hours.

18ZHWRF-Well to the South and west (and faster) than the 12Z run. The 12Z run had it at 28N 66W in 126 hours. This run has it at 27.5N 73W in 126 hours. This is concerning because it means these models see the ridge as building in stronger. If the ridge causes Katia to move so fast that it hits land before the trough comes, or the trough doesn't come when it is predicted, Katia could make landfall. I still think a near miss is most likely, but not likely enough to have great confidence.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I see the same thing you are, and the GFS looks more ominous and on more of a irene type track up the ec, every run it is just west a little closer. I really hope that whatever the outcome, they are really certain about it soon cause we are running out of time to get people out of spots of the ec that potentially will get hit.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[Time_Zone]

So looks like it will stay offshore and not affect Atlantic Canada as well?

If it did make its way up here im guessing it wouldnt be strong anyways... Strong TS/Low end Category1 hurricane sound about right...maybe less?

[expat2carib]

Yes, is she going schizophrenic ?



BTW tried to upload this image. Didn't work

[jabman98]

More 18Z runs rolling in...some of them concerning.

18Z NOGAPS: Landfall in the Outer banks, then up toward Long Island as a hurricane at 180 hours.

Yikes. That's Irene 2.0. Let's hope that doesn't happen.