ATL: MARIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[BigA]

Regardless of further development before the Lesser Antilles, they are in for some nasty thunderstorms.

Good point. I'm thoroughly impressed by Dr. Masters and the power of the convectively coupled Kelvin wave. Can't wait till this gets into Antilles radar range.

[tobol.7uno]

Would you like some graphics??? About 100 miles from the center, and winds are very light. And still not from the direction of the circulation.

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MARIA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 11A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142011
800 AM AST FRI SEP 09 2011

...MARIA HEADING TOWARD THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN LESSER ANTILLES...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.0N 56.9W
ABOUT 185 MI...295 KM ENE OF BARBADOS
ABOUT 390 MI...630 KM SE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* GUADELOUPE
* ST. MAARTIN...SABA...AND ST. EUSTATIUS
* ANTIGUA...ANGUILLA...BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...NEVIS...SAINT
KITTS AND THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* DOMINICA
* ST BARTHELEMY...ST MARTEEN...AND MARTINIQUE
* PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING VIEQUES AND CULEBRA

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LESSER ANTILLES...THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...AND THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MARIA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 56.9 WEST. MARIA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/H...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. ON
THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF MARIA WILL REACH THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS EARLY SATURDAY...AND BE NEAR THE VIRGIN ISLANDS BY SATURDAY
NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM
MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE LESSER
ANTILLES BY LATE TODAY.

RAINFALL...MARIA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
3 TO 5 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES OVER THE
LESSER ANTILLES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MARIA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 11A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142011
800 AM AST FRI SEP 09 2011

...MARIA HEADING TOWARD THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN LESSER ANTILLES...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.0N 56.9W
ABOUT 185 MI...295 KM ENE OF BARBADOS
ABOUT 390 MI...630 KM SE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES

[Aric Dunn]

well thats a bit of convection.......... lol

[chrisjslucia]

St Lucia, Friday Morning.
Winds started here some time around 2 am, nothing very strong but westerly at times with accompanying rain. I see the Cone has moved North again, targeting Guadeloupe rather than Martinique. Still moderate winds from the West, WNW at 8 am today with occasional rain. Some power outages on the Island notified already, which I assume are weather related. Suspect everyone from here North is going to get some heavy rain later today / tonight as the switch to a WNW track seems very minor as yet (280?). A Barbados report at 1.30 am stated that the rain was "awesome"!

[cycloneye]

Keep those graphics comming.

URNT15 KNHC 091158
AF306 0214A MARIA HDOB 17 20110909
114900 1355N 05655W 8422 01561 0077 +176 +121 204009 010 027 004 00
114930 1356N 05653W 8425 01560 0078 +175 +120 207010 010 027 004 00
115000 1357N 05652W 8424 01560 0080 +175 +121 208011 012 027 004 03
115030 1357N 05650W 8418 01566 0079 +174 +120 210012 012 026 005 03
115100 1357N 05648W 8425 01559 0082 +170 +121 216011 011 025 004 00
115130 1357N 05647W 8425 01560 0080 +174 +119 207011 011 025 003 00
115200 1357N 05645W 8425 01558 0079 +175 +124 191014 016 026 002 00
115230 1357N 05643W 8425 01558 0077 +180 +124 179015 015 026 003 00
115300 1358N 05642W 8424 01562 0078 +178 +127 179015 016 028 005 00
115330 1358N 05640W 8432 01557 0084 +172 +130 187014 015 026 006 00
115400 1358N 05638W 8420 01569 0086 +172 +127 184014 015 027 005 00
115430 1358N 05637W 8425 01564 0088 +170 +127 181017 018 027 006 00
115500 1358N 05635W 8425 01567 0085 +174 +125 189018 020 027 004 00
115530 1358N 05633W 8422 01567 0086 +173 +128 194023 024 027 004 00
115600 1358N 05631W 8428 01563 0084 +175 +128 196024 024 024 003 00
115630 1358N 05630W 8421 01569 0084 +178 +127 195023 024 022 001 00
115700 1358N 05628W 8421 01571 0081 +183 +125 193023 023 020 000 00
115730 1358N 05626W 8428 01565 0082 +182 +126 188024 025 018 000 00
115800 1358N 05624W 8424 01569 0084 +180 +125 191023 024 016 000 00
115830 1358N 05623W 8425 01568 0082 +186 +124 189021 022 015 000 00
$$

[AJC3]

Ended up with a weird hybrid storm in the OBX

Both the 00Z GFS and ECM are forecasting this to occur around days 8-10 (9/17 - 9/19) as a cutoff 500 MB low forms over South Carolina. One big difference is that the ECM is much slower with the forward speed and northward turn of Maria than the GFS. The GFS pretty much is totally baroclinic in lowering pressure in that area, while the ECM takes what's left of a decapitated Maria and pulls the remnant vorticity into a stronger developing low.

[wxman57]

Here's a shot of Maria with surface obs. Crosshairs are where NHC put a center. Not much evidence of any tight circulation, and buoys in the squalls are generally reporting 25-30 kt winds. Looks like lots of rain and gusty near-TS winds for the islands today.

[tobol.7uno]

Still no sign of a circulation (based on where the current estimated center is and current recon data)...

[cycloneye]

well thats a bit of convection.......... lol

What do you see in terms of movement?

[WeatherOrKnot]

Another newbie question....but any discussion on the storm heading west towards the end of the 06z GFS? How often do these predictive storms pan out?

[cycloneye]

Going more east.

URNT15 KNHC 091208
AF306 0214A MARIA HDOB 18 20110909
115900 1358N 05621W 8422 01570 0078 +191 +122 190019 021 015 000 00
115930 1358N 05619W 8424 01571 0076 +195 +121 200019 020 013 000 00
120000 1358N 05617W 8426 01564 0077 +190 +122 206019 020 012 000 00
120030 1358N 05616W 8425 01567 0076 +194 +119 214018 019 009 000 03
120100 1358N 05614W 8428 01565 0078 +190 +121 217017 018 013 000 00
120130 1357N 05612W 8430 01563 0078 +190 +120 218015 015 010 000 00
120200 1357N 05610W 8421 01572 0080 +186 +117 222015 015 009 000 03
120230 1357N 05609W 8425 01566 0082 +185 +117 222015 016 012 000 03
120300 1356N 05607W 8429 01563 0083 +183 +117 218017 018 013 000 00
120330 1356N 05605W 8422 01570 0084 +183 +119 214018 018 017 000 00
120400 1356N 05604W 8426 01566 0087 +176 +127 212021 022 018 000 00
120430 1356N 05602W 8424 01571 0089 +175 +129 208022 022 018 000 03
120500 1355N 05600W 8425 01567 0091 +171 +130 211022 022 019 000 00
120530 1355N 05558W 8422 01571 0094 +165 +133 207023 024 026 005 00
120600 1355N 05557W 8422 01569 0096 +162 +139 199020 021 033 007 00
120630 1355N 05555W 8453 01544 0094 +172 +135 196019 020 027 002 00
120700 1354N 05553W 8417 01580 0095 +171 +131 195019 020 028 002 00
120730 1354N 05552W 8419 01580 0104 +159 +135 181020 021 030 010 00
120800 1354N 05550W 8418 01583 0102 +162 +134 175020 022 039 011 00
120830 1355N 05548W 8429 01558 0098 +152 +140 163019 024 049 023 03
$$

[Gustywind]

Latest news from Guadeloupe concerning TS Maria (weather source Meteo-France Guadeloupe Friday 6AM). I've translated it.
http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... ivi_gd.pdf (french version)

Weather forecast of tracking No.: 7
Episode No.: 28 - GD
Friday, September 9, 2011
at 06AM

Phenomenon (type, name)
TROPICAL STORM "MARIA".

Current position(distance)
At 5 AM, the center is located at 13 ° 8 North and 56 °2 West, about 700 km South-East of Guadeloupe.

Characteristics current intensity of the cyclone
Estimated average maximum wind: 65 km/h gusts: 85 km
Range, winds > 65 km/h: 185 km in the northern part
Minimum pressure: 1003 hectoPascals

Mouvement, current direction (cap)
West to 32 km/h.

Forecasts (path and intensity)
For now, the more likely scenario is moving the center of MARIA in the south of Guadeloupe on the night of Friday to Saturday.
Given this trajectory prediction, Guadeloupe should already know of stormy episodes from Friday afternoon. Rain stormy will intensify in the night and continue in the day of Saturday and could give important rollups. Average winds 60 km/h gusting to 80 km/h are expected during the night of Friday to Saturday. From a North-East direction, the wind will switch South and then Southeast during the night.
Sea: the first effects of the strong swell of East to North-East will begin as early as Friday morning with average dips to 2 m 50 to 3 m 50 on the Atlantic coast and will reach 4 to 6 m in evening and night of Friday to Saturday still on the Atlantic coast. The hollow max could reach 8 meters. On the coast downwind, average lows can reach 2 m.


Comments /Consequences
Risks related to stormy rain: sudden rising waters, raw, floods, landslides, lightning, gusts of wind. Dangerous sea with large welters on exposed coasts.

Summary
The risk is moderate risk.
The expected impact is moderate to important.

Validity - period of the phenomenon
Cyclonic effects expected on Friday 9th afternoon to Saturday 10th at night.

Next newsletter
This Friday, September 9th at 1130 AM.

[cycloneye]

Who wants to continue the posting of the obs?

[tobol.7uno]

41 miles from the estimated center. Still no sign of a circulation.

[AJC3]

Another newbie question....but any discussion on the storm heading west towards the end of the 06z GFS? How often do these predictive storms pan out?

Take anything you see on any model's intermediate run (06Z, 18Z) with a pillar of salt, especially if it differs significantly from it's own previous synoptic (00Z, 06Z) run, and isn't supported by other model gudiance.

[cycloneye]

57, maybe the center is more eastward?

[tobol.7uno]

Found a very small circulation with weak winds. Will it be enough to continue advisories?

[Gustywind]

Loop of TS Maria