ATL: OPHELIA - Remnants - Discussion

[CrazyC83]

P.S. Where is everyone? You'd think the hurricane season was over...

I think the continued recurving storms are not interesting to many people and that is the reason for the drop-off in interest. The fact is many of the ameteurs on here are weather enthusiasts and more specifically hurricane enthusiasts and get excited and exhilarated by an approaching storm. Unfortunatley, I have seen members get beat up on here pretty good by other members for so called "-removed-" or people asking them......"what, you want destruction?". I don't think anybody on here wants death and destruction, but if your seeing an image of a storm on satellite far out in the ocean and the models are showing it recurve well out at sea....the interest probably only goes so far for some. It's ok to like storms and to want to experience some wind and rain that comes with storms, but I think people have shyed away a bit because other members have told them it's not ok to feel that way. I am not speaking for everyone and this is just an observation that I have seen with some of the posts this year.

More people are interested when themselves or their friends are in the path, since they want to know more on what will happen to them. If storms go out to sea, they get much less interest.

[cycloneye]

But,if anyone is a true enthusiastic tropical weather geek,you track everything from systems of landfall chances to in the middle of the ocean that are fish major canes.

[dolebot_Broward_NW]

Quoting my wife: "Why are you looking at that, it's not coming here..."

P.S. Where is everyone? You'd think the hurricane season was over...

I think the continued recurving storms are not interesting to many people and that is the reason for the drop-off in interest. The fact is many of the ameteurs on here are weather enthusiasts and more specifically hurricane enthusiasts and get excited and exhilarated by an approaching storm. Unfortunatley, I have seen members get beat up on here pretty good by other members for so called "-removed-" or people asking them......"what, you want destruction?". I don't think anybody on here wants death and destruction, but if your seeing an image of a storm on satellite far out in the ocean and the models are showing it recurve well out at sea....the interest probably only goes so far for some. It's ok to like storms and to want to experience some wind and rain that comes with storms, but I think people have shyed away a bit because other members have told them it's not ok to feel that way. I am not speaking for everyone and this is just an observation that I have seen with some of the posts this year.

More people are interested when themselves or their friends are in the path, since they want to know more on what will happen to them. If storms go out to sea, they get much less interest.

[cycloneye]

The predict team analysis this morning of 98L.

http://www.met.nps.edu/~mtmontgo/P28L.html

P28L … 98L
11N, 38W
700 hPa


ECMWF: Tracks westward with a slight turn to the northwest on Day 5. Intensifies for a couple days, then gradually weakens a little over the next few days while remaining a pouch the entire five days.

GFS: Similar to ECMWF.

UKMET: Similar track to ECMWF & GFS. Intensifies immediately and stays strong.

NOGAPS: OUTLIER! (AND I WOULD GUESS WRONG) Depicts large 98L as small while it depicts nearby (to the northwest) tiny 99L as a large circulation. 98L dissipates (get sheared apart?) in about two days as it is merged into the "huge" 99L while over the Caribbean. NOTE: This determination is based upon the examination of 700 hPa. At lower levels, 99L is not so large and 98L is actually more intense. Down at 925 hPa, 98L tracks westward, just south of Hispaniola, which is similar to the 700-hPa pouches of the other models.

HWRF-GEN: Gradual intensification as it tracks just north of west.


ECMWF -7.0 v700 120h
GFS -7.6 v700 120h
UKMET -6.8 v700 120h
NOGAPS -5.1 v700 48h

[HurricaneWarning92]

I think the continued recurving storms are not interesting to many people and that is the reason for the drop-off in interest. The fact is many of the ameteurs on here are weather enthusiasts and more specifically hurricane enthusiasts and get excited and exhilarated by an approaching storm. Unfortunatley, I have seen members get beat up on here pretty good by other members for so called "-removed-" or people asking them......"what, you want destruction?". I don't think anybody on here wants death and destruction, but if your seeing an image of a storm on satellite far out in the ocean and the models are showing it recurve well out at sea....the interest probably only goes so far for some. It's ok to like storms and to want to experience some wind and rain that comes with storms, but I think people have shyed away a bit because other members have told them it's not ok to feel that way. I am not speaking for everyone and this is just an observation that I have seen with some of the posts this year.

Finally someone that understands us hurricane enthusiasts. We obviously dont want death (thatd be strange and crazy) or destruction. But im still here because i like weather not just hurricanes. I think its very interesting how a system forms. Whether it threatens land or goes out to see, is another matter. Thats why im watching 98L

[HurrMark]

:uarrow: But,if anyone is a true enthusiastic tropical weather geek,you track everything from systems of landfall chances to in the middle of the ocean that are fish major canes.

It's true...but even if you have a major hurricane out there that is of no threat to land (e. g. Katia), you really don't see much in the way of postings. That is why the E-Pac doesn't see much activity for the most part. People do not want to admit that they want a storm making landfall because it is not politically correct...however, it must be said that a weak tropical storm making landfall in Florida will garner much more interest than a cat-4 hurricane turning northward at 55W...the "hype" of today's media is likely a reason...and human nature (although I would think most people are more compassionate to the plight of others than even 40-50 years ago, there has always been an intrigue in calamities that keep us glued to the TV/computer).

Back on topic...98L looks pretty good. I am actually a bit surprised that it was not declared a TD at 11 AM. I would think that it will almost certainly be one at 5 PM. But as this season has shown (quantity rather than quality), it probably won't grow that strong. Perhaps it could do a Maria once it turns north and intensifies into a cat-1 Hurricane...assuming it stays an identifiable feature.

[ConvergenceZone]

This had to form since at the beginning of the month I predicted one more storm before September ends...
Probably one more in October and maybe one in November before the season comes to a close....

98L does look better this mornning...I think we should have a TS before too long.....

[tobol.7uno]

8 am models for 98L...

[tobol.7uno]

Intensity forecasts are generally a little bit higher today...

[tobol.7uno]

Starting to see some curvature in the clouds and a bit of rotation... May be a TD forming at any time.

[HurricaneWarning92]

8 am models for 98L...
http://img851.imageshack.us/img851/1446/al982011.png

There are bends back to the wnw, or in the case of the BAMD, wsw. The TVCN was showing a bend to the north, now it shows a bend back to the wnw...

[tobol.7uno]

Well we all know BAM anything is all over the place all of the time, but the general shift I think was slightly to the west, with GFS ensemble still going due west.

[clfenwi]

12Z GFS gives the system better definition than previous runs, though it starts to fade around 90h. Here's 120h, with the low just east of Puerto Rico:

[Caribwxgirl]

Well for me I am always on checking but not posting much...whether the storm is going to affect land or not I am here...but the truth is if I check 10 times a day when the system will not be affecting land, I check 30 times a day if there is a threat. Its just the way it is, we are more concerned and post more, look more at the systems if they may impact land.

[tobol.7uno]

Well for me I am always on checking but not posting much...whether the storm is going to affect land or not I am here...but the truth is if I check 10 times a day when the system will not be affecting land, I check 30 times a day if there is a threat. Its just the way it is, we are more concerned and post more, look more at the systems if they may impact land.

Makes sense... but enthusiasts always are tracking storms no matter what! Its like a hobby. I love doinfg it.

[Caribwxgirl]

Anyone have the latest spaghetti models from the more reliable sources?

[Adoquín]

dry air does not seem as bad as it was for earlier CVs. Not much african dust to speak about. Mr. Shear will determine the future on this one. Seems like it could miss it for at least a few days more if stays on the south of 14.

[Aja]

Some of us storm watchers just lurk without posting. Pretty educational and interesting reading everyone thoughts and predictions just the same...

[ouragans]

I have this spaghetti from SFWMD


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[HurricaneMaster_PR]

Latest TAFB Surface Forecast (72 hrs)