SERIOUSLY!! FABIAN AN EC THREAT OR NOT?

[hurricanedude]

I'm not so sure the models are correct about the strength of the trough next week, so I still say Carolinas North should not let down there guard

[Stormsfury]

No one should let their guard down ... we're still 7 days away from ANY impact IF Fabian is an EC threat or not ...

There are too many variables and too much uncertainty to say yes or no.

Right now all of the model guidance suggest Fabian, and I mean, all, do not make Fabian an EC threat but Fabian ... is definitely not a fish storm or a threat right now.

SF

[Guest]

Well im with Stormsfury on this one.................I have looked at alot of things (Besides the models) and i certainly do not think the eastcoast is out of the woods by any means!....................I have yet to see anything by the sats especially the water vapor that shows anything for atleast the next 3 days that will pick Fabian up towards the north or especially the NE.....................And the next possibility from that time on is only a slight possibility but will know more about this by tomorrow.......................Tomorrow imo is the day to start making better predictions on Fabian beeing a eastcoast threat or not!..................For now lets just say that i wouldnt dare let my guard down if i lived anywhere along the eastcoast (especially) from NC southward!

[Steve H.]

Check out the 18Z tropical models. Screw up or truth :o

[Colin]

Nobody should let their guard down...if this does hit the EC, most people along the EC would feel the remnants...so we cannot take our eye of this one yet! :o

[jabber]

I live in S. Florida and am not letting my guard down. 5 Days is a long time and things can change very quickly. Models, Recon flights are great but the tropics continue to have suprises to show.

[Guest]

Well Colin what you said Kinda sounds exacty like what i did just worded differently of course?

[ColdFront77]

Tomorrow is still too early to get any more information that we don't have now on a "potential generally direction" of Hurricane Fabian; even more so with the expected decrease in forward speed.

I wouldn't assume "remnants" of Fabian. The storm will have to weaken considerably to effect an area along the eastern seaboard as "remnants."

[vbhoutex]

Colin I think you mean the outer bands of Fabian if he moves up the East coast offshore.

We should have quite a bit more or at least better information on what the models think Fabian will do in the next few runs since they will be ingesting the data from the high level jet reconnaisance currently in progress.

[Colin]

Yes, David, you're right...